MBS RECAP: Markets Finally Doing Interesting Things, But…

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MBS RECAP: Markets Finally Doing Interesting Things, But…

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, January 24, 2020 6:06 PM

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We had to wait all the way until January 24th of 2020, but bonds finally offered their first real shred of willingness to challenge the established range of late 2019. When we talk about ranges, we use 10yr Treasuries for these reasons. In 10yr terms, the range has been 1.71 to 1.95%, which is reasonably narrow for a 3 month+ time frame.

It looked like the range would be quickly crushed as war with Iran quickly entered the realm of possibility on the night of the missile attacks against Iraqi air bases. But with the de-escalation the following day, the range was…

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Daily Newsletter: FICO Changes On The Way; Mortgage Rates Drop to 4.5-Month Lows on Virus Fears

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30 Year Fixed
3.61% -0.02
15 Year Fixed
3.22% -0.03
10YR Treasury
1.69% -0.0451
FNMA 30YR 3.5
103.02 -0.03
FNMA 15YR 2.5
102.67 -0.03
View Today’s Rates
Friday January 24, 2020
Mortgage Rate Watch – 5:25PM
Mortgage Rates Drop to 4.5-Month Lows on Virus Fears
Mortgage rates moved meaningfully lower over the past 2 days as panic over the coronavirus outbreak continues affecting financial markets. If this epidemic ends up being similar to …
MND NewsWire – 9:44AM
Changes to FICO are on the Way
Paying bills on time is about to become more important for American consumers, and this as their debt levels are reaching new highs. Fair Isaac Corporation, the company which creates …
MBS Commentary – 10:49AM
MBS Day Ahead: The Obvious Bounce Could Be Too Obvious
As the week comes to a close, we find bonds continuing to trickle toward the lower end of the range that has prevailed for nearly 3 months. In terms of 10yr yields, the upper boundary …
Pipeline Press – 8:37AM
Client Engagement, Sales, API Products; Coronavirus Scare; ECB’s Low Rates
Yes, the change in FICO scores garnered some attention, but much of the focus is on Wells Fargo which just can’t stay out of the spotlight… for all the wrong reasons. Ten …

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What the FICO changes mean for consumers

Santelli Exchange: Doubleline Deputy CIO on the Fed and rates

Mnuchin: We planning more tax cuts despite budget deficit continuing to grow

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.61% -0.02
15 Yr FRM 3.22% -0.03
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.35% -0.01
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.69% -0.03
5/1 Yr ARM 3.35% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
30 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 3.87% 0.27 +0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 3.25% 0.22 -0.05
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.87% 0.21 +0.04
30 Yr. FHA 3.87% 0.25 +0.00
5/1 ARM 3.29% 0.25 -0.06
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.60% 0.80 -0.05
15 Yr. Fixed 3.04% 0.80 -0.05
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.28% 0.30 -0.11

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 101.95 +0.06
30YR FNMA 3.5 103.02 -0.03
30YR GNMA 3.0 102.72 +0.13
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.86 -0.11
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.67 -0.03
15YR FNMA 2.5 101.34 +0.03
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 1.4947% -0.0191
5 YR 1.5088% -0.0348
10 YR 1.6857% -0.0451
30 YR 2.1352% -0.0402
Prices as of: 1/24/2020 5:06PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2020 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Drop to 4.5-Month Lows on Virus Fears

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
3.61% -0.02
15 Year Fixed
3.22% -0.03
10YR Treasury
1.69% -0.0451
FNMA 30YR 3.5
103.02 -0.03
FNMA 15YR 2.5
102.67 -0.03
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Drop to 4.5-Month Lows on Virus Fears
January 24, 2020
Mortgage rates moved meaningfully lower over the past 2 days as panic over the coronavirus outbreak continues affecting financial markets. If this epidemic ends up being similar to SARS in 2003, it ultimately won’t be worth as much of a drop in interest rates as we’ve seen so far. But the thing about brand new strains of deadly viruses is that neither the market nor the medical community knows exactly how this will unfold. Until that picture becomes clearer, the market is preparing for more dire outcomes.

For whatever it’s worth, the timeline of the SARS outbreak spanned 2 calendar years (2002 – 2004) but the most notable market impact was confined to the space of a single month (March 2003). We’ll be a week into February before the current epidemic reaches a similar milestone. I’m basing that on the virus being identified as “novel” back on January 9th. If we start the clock at the beginning of the current week (when markets really began to respond to virus-related news), we’ve only just begun to move lower in rate.

That’s a very scary thing to type and think. With mortgage rates at 4.5 month lows, there should be a voice in everyone’s head saying “they’re going to have a hard time going lower than that.” That’s my first instinct as well, just as almost everyone had the instinct rates were very likely heading higher in 2020. That’s the thing about markets (which ultimately dictate mortgage rates): when too many people are making the same bet, the other bet can end up being the winner. In this case, however, I would guess we’ll see a linear and logical relationship between the spread of coronavirus and rates, all other thing being equal.

Loan Originator Perspective

Corona Virus concerns continued to boost bonds Friday, and we finished the 4 day week with moderate additional gains. I’m in no hurry to lock my March closings, but most February ones are. Feels like we’re still in the early stages of Corona concerns. –Ted Rood, Senior Originator


Today’s Most Prevalent Rates For Top Tier Scenarios

  • 30YR FIXED – 3.625 -3.75%
  • FHA/VA – 3.375%%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.25 – 3.375%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 3.25-3.75% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • 2019 was the best year for mortgage rates since 2011. Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections
  • Fed policy and the US/China trade war have been key players. Major updates on either front could cause a volatile reaction in rates
  • The Fed and the bond market (which dictates rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade war updates. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
24?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
24?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.61% -0.02
15 Yr FRM 3.22% -0.03
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.35% -0.01
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.69% -0.03
5/1 Yr ARM 3.35% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
30 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 3.87% 0.27 +0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 3.25% 0.22 -0.05
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.87% 0.21 +0.04
30 Yr. FHA 3.87% 0.25 +0.00
5/1 ARM 3.29% 0.25 -0.06
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.60% 0.80 -0.05
15 Yr. Fixed 3.04% 0.80 -0.05
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.28% 0.30 -0.11

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 101.95 +0.06
30YR FNMA 3.5 103.02 -0.03
30YR GNMA 3.0 102.72 +0.13
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.86 -0.11
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.67 -0.03
15YR FNMA 2.5 101.34 +0.03
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 1.4947% -0.0191
5 YR 1.5088% -0.0348
10 YR 1.6857% -0.0451
30 YR 2.1352% -0.0402
Prices as of: 1/24/2020 5:06PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2020 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

MBS Day Ahead: The Obvious Bounce Could Be Too Obvious

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MBS Day Ahead: The Obvious Bounce Could Be Too Obvious

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, January 24, 2020 10:49 AM

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As the week comes to a close, we find bonds continuing to trickle toward the lower end of the range that has prevailed for nearly 3 months. In terms of 10yr yields, the upper boundary is clearly established at 1.95%. The lower boundary is slightly more open to interpretation, but in any event is somewhere between 1.69 and 1.71.

With yields moving down to 1.717% in the first hour this morning, it’s time to ask ourselves if we’re about to see another range bounce. Frankly, the only reason we wouldn’t see such a bounce at this point is that it’s too obvious. Econ…

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Changes to FICO are on the Way

Changes to FICO are on the Way

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Friday, January 24, 2020 9:33 AM

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Paying bills on time is about to become more important for American consumers, and this as their debt levels are reaching new highs. Fair Isaac Corporation, the company which creates the FICO credit score models, will introduce two new ones this summer, the FICO Score 10, and the FICO Score 10- T. The company says its new models “incorporate trended credit bureau data to further enhance predictive power” and that lenders could reduce defaults by as much as ten percent among newly originated bankcards and nine percent among newly originated auto loans, compared to using FICO’s previous models. The reduction, the company says, could be 17 percent for newly originated mortgage loans compared to the version of the FICO Score used in that industry.

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Client Engagement, Sales, API Products; Coronavirus Scare; ECB’s Low Rates

Client Engagement, Sales, API Products; Coronavirus Scare; ECB’s Low Rates

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Friday, January 24, 2020 8:01 AM

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Yes, the change in FICO scores garnered some attention, but much of the focus is on Wells Fargo which just can’t stay out of the spotlight… for all the wrong reasons. Ten days ago we learned that the Bank had $2.9 billion of income in the fourth quarter in 2019 (and $60 billion of residential origination) but income didn’t meet expectations and the stock sank. Yesterday came news that ex-Wells Fargo leaders are personally facing $59 million in fines. Former CEO John Stumpf agreed to pay a $17.5-million penalty and is banned from the industry. Carrie Tolstedt, who led Wells Fargo’s community bank for a decade, faces a $25-million penalty that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said could climb higher. The news wasn’t a surprise, but analysts were quick to compare these to some of the penalties from 10-12 years ago.

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Here’s How The Average Loan Looked in December

Here’s How The Average Loan Looked in December

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Thursday, January 23, 2020 11:34 AM

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The average interest rate on closed loans inched up in December and the share of those loans that were for refinancing moved lower. Ellie Mae’s Origination Insight Report for the month says the average 30-year fixed rate in December rose to 3.99 percent from 3.97 percent in November and the year’s low of 3.93 percent in September. The refinance share across all mortgage products declined from 49 to 46 percent. The share of loans that were originated for FHA rose 1 percentage point to 17 percent in December, taking that point from Conventional loans which dipped to a 70 percent share. The portion of VA loans was unchanged at 9 percent. Adjustable rate mortgages accounted for 5.5 percent or originations.

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