Fannie Mae Sees Economic Slowdown…Slowing

Fannie Mae Sees Economic Slowdown…Slowing

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Tuesday, July 16, 2019 1:13 PM

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The second quarter of 2019 has just ended, but Fannie Mae’s ESR Macroeconomic Forecast team expects that growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) probably slowed from the impressive 3.1 percent it posted in Q1. They upgraded last month’s Q2 estimate by one-tenth based on higher expenditures for personal consumption, but still expect growth slowed to an annualized rate of 1.8 percent. They have maintained their previous full-year forecast for 2019 GDP of 2.1 percent. This will slow further next year to an estimated 1.6 percent due to waning fiscal stimulus, continued uncertainty weighing on consumer and business confidence, and eventually a slowdown in consumer spending.

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Higher Rates Stunt Post-Holiday Application Volume Recovery

Higher Rates Stunt Post-Holiday Application Volume Recovery

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, July 17, 2019 4:58 AM

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Mortgage application activity retreated again during the week ended July 12, although refinancing remained strong. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite index, a measure of application volume, was down 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous week. That earlier week’s data included an adjustment to account for the Independence Day holiday. The non-adjusted Composite Index rose 24 percent week-over-week, more than recovering from its 22 percent decline during the holiday period.

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MBS RECAP: Late Day Reslience But Negative Trend Remains Intact

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MBS RECAP: Late Day Reslience But Negative Trend Remains Intact

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Tuesday, July 16, 2019 6:27 PM

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Bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory. On the one hand, that was impressive considering the lack of substance underlying yesterday’s rally. On the other hand, that lack of substance meant we were at risk of a bigger reaction to the Retail Sales data.

Retail Sales came out stronger than expected and bonds quickly retreated back in line with yesterday’s weakest levels. Notably, however, bonds never broke through to any weaker territory. In fact, today’s ceiling (2.143% in terms of 10yr yields) was slightly lower than the 2.15% ceiling from the past 3…

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Daily Newsletter: Builder Confidence Holds Steady, Labor Shortages Persist

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dailynewsletter.png
30 Year Fixed
3.96% +0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.64% +0.01
10YR Treasury
2.11% +0.0157
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.11 -0.05
FNMA 15YR 2.5
101.75 -0.06
View Today’s Rates
Tuesday July 16, 2019
MND NewsWire – 11:25AM
Builder Confidence Holds Steady, Labor Shortages Persist
Builder confidence rose slightly in July. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said its Housing Market Index (HMI), which it sponsors with Wells Fargo, gained one point …
Mortgage Rate Watch – 4:34PM
Mortgage Rates Under Modest Pressure After Retail Sales Data
Mortgage rates were flat to slightly higher today, following a stronger-than-expected Retail Sales report. The bond market (which dictates mortgage rates) was eagerly awaiting the week …
Pipeline Press – 9:01AM
U/W, Training, Non-QM, Marketing Products; Ginnie’s Growth
Although lots of small lenders don’t seem interested in being acquired any longer (“Hey, our pipeline is full and we’re making money again! Autumn is a long way off …

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Fed Chair Powell: Uncertainties around trade, US debt ceiling have increased

NAHB homebuilder sentiment index beats expectations for July

Chicago Fed president sees argument for a couple rate cuts by end of year: Liesman

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.96% +0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.64% +0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.63% +0.01
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.97% +0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.68% +0.00

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.79% 1.21 -0.12
30 Yr. Fixed 4.39% 1.12 -0.22
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.07% 0.36 +0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 3.42% 0.32 +0.02
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.00% 0.25 +0.00
30 Yr. FHA 3.97% 0.30 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.46% 0.26 -0.04
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.75% 0.50 +0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 3.22% 0.50 +0.06
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.46% 0.40 +0.07

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 100.47 -0.05
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.11 -0.05
30YR GNMA 3.0 101.63 -0.09
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.13 -0.03
15YR FNMA 3.0 101.75 -0.06
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.34 -0.05
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 1.8539% +0.0188
5 YR 1.8710% +0.0250
10 YR 2.1061% +0.0157
30 YR 2.6143% +0.0044
Prices as of: 7/16/2019 5:05PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2019 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Under Modest Pressure After Retail Sales Data

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
3.96% +0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.64% +0.01
10YR Treasury
2.11% +0.0157
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.11 -0.05
FNMA 15YR 2.5
101.75 -0.06
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Under Modest Pressure After Retail Sales Data
July 16, 2019
Mortgage rates were flat to slightly higher today, following a stronger-than-expected Retail Sales report. The bond market (which dictates mortgage rates) was eagerly awaiting the week’s first major economic data. Even though the Fed will almost certainly cut rates at the end of the month, additional cuts depend heavily on the balance of economic data. To whatever extent the data is strong, the Fed becomes less likely to continue cutting rates and the broader financial market becomes less interested in bonds. When investors are interested in buying bonds, it’s good for rates!

Fortunately for prospective borrowers, today’s movement was minimal. In fact, many lenders are effectively unchanged versus yesterday. Moreover, bonds managed to improve throughout the day with those specifically underlying mortgages able to make it almost all the way back to yesterday’s range. Lenders didn’t adjust their rate offerings to reflect the market improvement today as the move wasn’t quite big enough. That means rates should be flat to slightly lower tomorrow IF the bond market manages to hold steady by tomorrow morning.


Loan Originator Perspective

Rates drifted slightly higher today, as retail sales data exceeded expectations. Fed Chairman Powell delivered some dovish remarks, providing some support mid day. There’s not much data to inform rates the rest of the week, so I don’t look for large moves here. I’m locking most loans closing in August. –Ted Rood, Senior Originator

I continue to not like floating in this market. It seems a 50bps cut to the fed fund rate is baked in but i fear we might only get a .25 cut which in my opinion will cause rates to give back some of the recent gains. Only loans i would float over night would be ones where you can lock tomorrow on a shorter time period. –Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage

Today’s Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.00%
  • FHA/VA – 3.625%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.5-3.625%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 3.375-3.75% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general
  • The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren’t the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response (and even their EXPECTED response) to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.
  • Based on the Fed’s laundry list of concerns, the bond market (which determines rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade-related concerns. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
16?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
16?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.96% +0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.64% +0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.63% +0.01
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.97% +0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.68% +0.00

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.79% 1.21 -0.12
30 Yr. Fixed 4.39% 1.12 -0.22
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.07% 0.36 +0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 3.42% 0.32 +0.02
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.00% 0.25 +0.00
30 Yr. FHA 3.97% 0.30 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.46% 0.26 -0.04
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.75% 0.50 +0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 3.22% 0.50 +0.06
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.46% 0.40 +0.07

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 100.47 -0.05
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.11 -0.05
30YR GNMA 3.0 101.63 -0.09
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.13 -0.03
15YR FNMA 3.0 101.75 -0.06
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.34 -0.05
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 1.8539% +0.0188
5 YR 1.8710% +0.0250
10 YR 2.1061% +0.0157
30 YR 2.6143% +0.0044
Prices as of: 7/16/2019 5:05PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2019 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

Builder Confidence Holds Steady, Labor Shortages Persist

Builder Confidence Holds Steady, Labor Shortages Persist

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Tuesday, July 16, 2019 10:18 AM

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Builder confidence rose slightly in July. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said its Housing Market Index (HMI), which it sponsors with Wells Fargo, gained one point, rising to 65. This marks the sixth consecutive month that sentiment levels have held at a steady range in the low- to mid-60s. NAHB Chair Greg Ugalde said, “Builders report solid demand for single-family homes. However, they continue to grapple with labor shortages, a dearth of buildable lots and rising construction costs that are making it increasingly challenging to build homes at affordable price points relative to buyer incomes,”

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U/W, Training, Non-QM, Marketing Products; Ginnie’s Growth

U/W, Training, Non-QM, Marketing Products; Ginnie’s Growth

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Tuesday, July 16, 2019 8:33 AM

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Although lots of small lenders don’t seem interested in being acquired any longer (“Hey, our pipeline is full and we’re making money again! Autumn is a long way off!”), M&A is alive and well. The latest example comes from Southern California where William Lyon Homes (NYSE: WLH) has bought South Pacific Financial Corp., a retail mortgage banking company based in Irvine. South Pacific has been rebranded as ClosingMark Homes Loans Inc., and is part of a new financial services division being launched by the homebuilder. The unit, ClosingMark Financial Group, will include title insurance, settlement and mortgage services.

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