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I have some unexpected good news
Amidst an atmosphere of major market uncertainty, consumer borrowing costs improved significantly today. Enough to push BestExecution quotes a notch lower.
In the chart of Consumer Rate Quotes below, if the line is moving up, closing costs are on the rise. If the line is moving lower, costs are on the decline. More recently consumer borrowing costs have crept higher. That is until today when pricing improved significantly following a poor advance read on 2nd quarter GDP. Mortgage rates are once again just above their best levels of the year….
The chart above compares the average origination costs (as a percentage of loan amount) for several available mortgage note rates as quoted by the five major lenders. Each line represents a different 30 year fixed mortgage note rate. The numbers on the right vertical axis are the origination closing costs, as a percentage of your loan amount, that a borrower would be required to pay in order to close on that note rate. If the note rate graph line is below the 0.00% marker, the consumer may potentially receive closing cost help from their lender in the form of a lender credits. If the note rate line is above the 0.00% marker, the consumer should expect to pay additional points at the closing table to cover permanent buydown costs and origination fees. PLEASE SEE OUR MORTGAGE RATE DISCLAIMER BELOW
IMPROVED CURRENT MARKET*: The BestExecution conventional 30-yearfixed mortgage rate has improved to 4.50%. On FHA/VA 30 year fixed BestExecution isnow 4.375%. 15 year fixedconventional loans are best priced at 3.75%. Five year ARMs are bestpriced at 3.25% but the ARM market is more stratified and there is morevariation in what will be BestExecution depending on yourindividual scenario.
ONGOING GUIDANCE: Floating in this environment is acrapshoot. Both stocks and bonds are maneuvering through major marketuncertainties. Investors are focused on news headlines regarding U.S. budgetissues, EU debt contagion concerns, economic data, and quarterly earnings. Thatputs the direction of mortgage rates at the mercy of factors that don’t exactlyadhere to schedules or expectations. While we still view underlying economicfundamentals as being supportive of lower mortgage rates in the future, theshort-term risks associated with a potential U.S. debt default leave us moreinclined to advise locking, especially deals that must be ready to close in thenext 10-15 days. This provides protection from rising rates and still givesyour lender a chance to negotiate if rates decline.
A little added perspective is necessary after the unexpected rally we experienced today…
The bond market and mortgage rates have yet to show fear over the potential for a U.S. credit rating downgrade or even worse, a default. Clearly this is surprising as politicians seem nowhere near a deal on the debt ceiling, which implies lawmakers are ready to play chicken with global financial markets. From that view, eventhough rates rallied pretty heavily today, we’re still dealing with an “anything can happen” environment where volatility reigns supreme. If you’re nervous like we are about what might happen on August 2nd, it makes sense to lock right now, especially with loan pricing near the best levels of the year. If you’ve got time to float or have no problem gambling with your rate quote, there is a chance that rates continue to rally next week on a “flight to safety” (no default = no reason to sell Treasuries). This is a highly-speculative decision though, a real crapshoot.
GUT FEELING: Default would be political suicide for all parties involved, making it a highly unlikely event. But if we were to default on a debt coupon payment, there would be a huge margin call followed by massive deleveraging in the short-end of the Treasury yield curve and a major repricing across the credit spectrum (which would be intensified by MBS duration shedding aka “snowball selling” <— bad news for mortgage rates). In our opinion the more probable scenario is Congress fails to come to an agreement by August 2nd, forcing Treasury into so called “prioritization payment mode” to avoid default, which would be followed soon thereafter by another band-aid bill to raise the debt ceiling by just enough to get us into 2012 where Republicans would proceed to relentlessly hammer Obama’s tardiness on fiscals issues, just in time for the next election. If that scenario were to play out we wouldn’t necessarily be looking at a credit downgrade though. It’s still 50/50 at that point, totally dependent on the credibility of whatever plan is being debated at the time and how quickly Congress acts to raise the debt ceiling (Congress would need to act quickly though because Treasury makes around 3 million payments per day and does not have the systems to “prioritize” payments). Even if our credit rating was downgraded we wouldn’t expect panic in the bond market. It would likely lead rates higher temporarily, especially once investors refocus on weak U.S. economic fundamentals.
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*BestExecution is the most cost efficient combination of note rateoffered and points paid at closing. This note rate is determined based on thetime it takes to recover the points you paid at closing (discount) vs. themonthly savings of permanently buying down your mortgage rate by 0.125%. When deciding on whether or not to pay points, the borrower must have an idea ofhow long they intend to keep their mortgage. For more info, ask you originatorto explain the findings of their “breakeven analysis” on yourpermanent rate buy down costs.
*Important Mortgage Rate Disclaimer: The BestExecution loanpricing quotes shared above are generally seen as the more aggressive side ofthe primary mortgage market. Loan originators will only be able to offer theserates on conforming loan amounts to very well-qualified borrowers who have amiddle FICO score over 740 and enough equity in their home to qualify for arefinance or a large enough savings to cover their down payment and closingcosts. If the terms of your loan trigger any risk-based loan level pricingadjustments (LLPAs), your rate quote will be higher. If you do not fall intothe “perfect borrower” category, make sure you ask your loanoriginator for an explanation of the characteristics that make your loan moreexpensive. “No point” loan doesn’t mean “no cost” loan. Thebest 30 year fixed conventional/FHA/VA mortgage rates still include closingcosts such as: third party fees + title charges + transfer and recording. Don’tforget the fiscal frisking that comes along with the underwriting process.
CAUTION: MND guidance is speculative in nature. We don’t have acrystal ball, we can’t predict the future, we can only share our outlook.Making the following considerations extra important……………………
What MUST be considered BEFORE one thinks about capitalizing on a rates rally?
1. WHAT DO YOU NEED? Rates might not rally as much as youwant/need.
2. WHEN DO YOU NEED IT BY? Rates might not rally as fast as youwant/need.
3. HOW DO YOU HANDLE STRESS? Are you ready to make toughdecisions?
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Wells Fargo Mortgage Rate Monitor(SM) Alerts
Today's Rates: July 29, 2011
—————————————————————–
30 YEAR FIXED (CONFORMING(1) LOAN RATE)
INTEREST RATE: 4.5%
ANNUAL PERCENTAGE RATE (APR): 4.686%
MONTHLY PAYMENT: $886.70
PAYMENT TERM: 30 YEARS
LOAN AMOUNT: $175,000
EST. PREPAID FINANCE CHARGES: $3,750
DOWN PAYMENT: 25%
—————————————————————–
15 YEAR FIXED (CONFORMING(1) LOAN RATE)
INTEREST RATE: 3.625%
ANNUAL PERCENTAGE RATE (APR): 3.943%
MONTHLY PAYMENT: $1,261.82
PAYMENT TERM: 15 YEARS
LOAN AMOUNT: $175,000
EST. PREPAID FINANCE CHARGES: $3,750
DOWN PAYMENT: 25%
—————————————————————–
30 YEAR FIXED (FHA)
INTEREST RATE: 4.25%
ANNUAL PERCENTAGE RATE (APR): 5.251%
MONTHLY PAYMENT: $1,035.92
PAYMENT TERM: 30 YEARS
LOAN AMOUNT: $175,000
EST. PREPAID FINANCE CHARGES: $3,750
DOWN PAYMENT: 3.5%
—————————————————————–
Be aware that mortgage rates can change without notice and apply
only in certain conditions. The APR for the loan products shown
reflects the interest rates and estimated prepaid finance charges
which include 1% of your loan amount to be paid toward the loan
origination charge, but does not include all closing costs or
discount points. The displayed rates assume that you're
purchasing a single-family primary residence with a 60-day-lock.
These mortgage rates are based upon a variety of assumptions and conditions which include a consumer credit score which may be higher or lower than your individual credit score. Your loan's interest rate will depend upon the specific characteristics of your loan transaction and your credit profile up to the time of closing.
The monthly payment amount displayed includes principal and interest only. The payment amount does not include homeowner's insurance or property taxes which must be paid in addition to your loan payment.
Conventional loans with a down payment less than 20% require mortgage insurance which could increase the monthly payment and APR.
FHA loans require both an upfront and an annual mortgage insurance premium. The upfront fee is $1,750.00. The annual premium varies based on individual credit scores, your loan-to-value ratio and the loan term. For the FHA loan, a mortgage insurance payment has been added to the monthly principal and interest payment displayed above.
(1) Conforming loan amounts for certain loan products have increased in federally designated metropolitan areas. Larger limits available in the state of Hawaii. To find out if these new loan limits can help meet your needs, contact us.
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Our Wells Fargo Closing Guarantee reflects our commitment to excellence and to you. As one of the nation's leading residential mortgage lenders, we have on-time closing down to a science. On the rare occasion when our timing is off, we'll make up for small delays in a big way.
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(1) Other terms and conditions apply. Ask a home mortgage consultant for details.
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We'll help you determine how much you may be able to borrow so that you can shop for a home with confidence. Contact us for a free prequalification or call us at 970-613-9779.
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Check out my twice-a-month blog at the STRATMOR Group web site located at http://www.stratmorgroup.com. The current blog takes a look at QRM and shares doubts about its passage. Below is the text. If you have both the time and inclination, make a comment on what I have written, or on other comments so that folks can learn what’s going on out there from the other readers.
Early in June we discussed the provisions of QRM (“QRM” stands for “Qualified Residential Mortgage”). It is an issue that just won’t go away, and it did not help matters when the regulators extended the end of the comment period to August 1 – about one week away. The intention of the proposal is good: to limit “risky” loans from being originated and sold to investors and to force companies that securitize loans to “keep skin in the game.” QRM loans are expected to perform better, and therefore be subject to fewer risk requirements, with outliers being labeled as non-QRM. The loans falling outside this definition require the securitizer to hold 5% of the loan as a reserve (more on this later) – this is the risk retention component. And although it sounds relatively simple, it is very complex. And, as it turns out, a wide range of organizations have banded together to denounce it – more on that later also.
The core requirements for a loan to meet the definition of QRM are a maximum 80% LTV for purchases, less for refinances, 28/36 debt ratios, and 0x30 on all debts in last 24 months. Some studies have found that some 40% of recent originations wouldn’t qualify under these guidelines in spite of current production being the “cleanest” it has been for several years. Given the 40% number, politicians, mortgage originators, home builders, minority rights groups, and so on have rallied against the provisions.
So the “40% of loans wouldn’t qualify under QRM and therefore require the risk retention trigger” makes a great headline but that’s a bit misleading – it’s maybe a half-truth. The rule allows for all government or agency backed loans (Fannie/Freddie and FHA) to be exempt from the risk retention. So at a time where 90% of loans are agency eligible, this 40% figure is incorrect – in the short-term, the QRM restrictions mean little. But in the longer term, should Congress ever fully address the future of Freddie and Fannie, the QRM restrictions will be felt by the industry, and by the currently fragile housing market. Many in the industry wonder exactly why Fannie & Freddie must be dissolved, but if we’re to believe that they will be taken out of conservatorship or restructured, FHA will become the de facto program as it’ll be the only option to qualify for the exemption (>70 or 80 LTV and 28/36 ratios).
But unfortunately, HUD is continuing to shy away from increasing its market share (by increasing mortgage insurance premiums and lowering its loan limits). So mortgage originators may be left with either succumbing to the restrictions and setting aside 5% for risk retention purposes, or defining themselves as “non-securitizers.” The first alternative is grim, so the focus has turned to the second alternative. In the QRM rules currently open for public comment, the “banker” is the one who pools and securitized the mortgage loan. This means that correspondent lenders who sell to aggregators will NOT have to abide by the 5% rule, but the investor or aggregator will. But if the investors have to retain the 5% capital for risk retention, they’ll have to pull funds from other uses and put them toward the mortgage. They’ll be looking for similar returns in this capital and therefore it’s expected these non-QRM loans will have significant price adjustments, perhaps a 1-2% higher mortgage rate. And analysts suggest that aggregators will not absorb this, and that the cost will be passed down to the correspondent seller and/or the borrower. And is this good for the housing market?
In addition, many believe that the QRM rules promotes further growth of the larger “too big to fail” banks. They gain a competitive advantage as they have a larger asset base to be leveraged when compared to the community banker or credit union. The smaller lenders who have acted responsibly to serve their local markets over the years are negatively impacted as the 5% retention rule is enough to possibly change their business model and force them to move away from securitizing and servicing platforms toward the correspondent channel.
Fortunately, for these reasons and others, an incredibly wide range of special interest groups have come out with a united front against the existing QRM restrictions. Groups ranging from the American Securitization Forum, credit unions across the nation, and a diverse coalition of 44 consumer organizations, civil rights groups, lenders, real estate professionals and insurers, along with 44 Senators and 282 members of the House of Representatives have voiced their concern that such a requirement would hurt, rather than help, a housing recovery (per the Santa Ana Business News). So at this point, look for the QRM question to drag on well into the foreseeable future, much to the temporary relief of the mortgage and housing industry.
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“Why do chicken coops have twodoors? Because if they had four doors they’d be sedans.”
And thus starts Friday, with verygood rates but a lot of news for folks in the mortgage banking and real estatebusiness to be watching. First, of course, the debt crisis continues inWashington – more on that below.
Second, Monday is August 1st, whichis the end of the public comment period for the nearly universally dreaded QRMprovisions. Those “in the know” believe that, as proposed, therestrictions are unlikely to fly. (There is more at QRMDoubts.)
Third, regulators say they’veidentified conflicts between Basel III and parts of the Dodd Frank Actrelating to credit rating agencies. (Yes, those rating agencies thatmistakenly rated billions of mortgage debt several years ago, and which areproviding information about downgrading government debt now.) Representativesfrom the SEC, the Federal Reserve Bank, and the OCC gave evidence to the HouseFinancial Services Subcommittee on credit rating agencies in Washington onWednesday. Federal Reserve Board associate director of banking supervision MarkVan Der Weide told the panel the Reserve Board plans to remove mentions ofcredit rating agencies from its rules “in the near future” but hesaid the process was being complicated by Basel III, which does mention creditratings agencies. Section 939 A of the Dodd Frank Act requires all federalauthorities to review and replace references to credit ratings agencies intheir regulations, with “alternative measures of credit worthiness”.Van Der Weide said the Fed had received feedback from the public andcommentators saying the act “could lead to distortion in the market”.Great.
Fourth, Bank of America isfacing a new securities-fraud lawsuit filed by former Countrywide investors(including BlackRock and the California Public Employee’s Retirement System)that opted out of a $624 million settlement last year. According to the suitCountrywide misled shareholders about its finances and lending practices. Formore go to: BankofAmerica.
Returning to the debt crisis, and the apparent inability for our electedofficials to send a budget to the president, the bond market seems focused onthree developments: “(1) A downgrade of Treasuries by at least oneratings agency. (2) A more prolonged downdraft in economic activity,caused in no small part by the uncertainty raised by the debt issues. (3)Clinging to the notion that a full-scale Treasury default will be avoided,mostly because it’s too painful to think otherwise.” Paul Jacob, withBanc of Manhattan, points out that although these issues would normallycause the yield curve to steepen (leading to higher mortgage rates), but thereare a few reasons why rates have not done much of anything. “For onething, markets are supposed to look past labels and truly assess risks – hasthe U.S. long-term deficit outlook really changed over the past 6 or 12months? Then there’s the state of the economy – things are slow, whichwould keep rates low. And lastly, China, a major world economic influence,continues to hold US dollars and securities, helping prices. Very good points.
Corporate earnings formortgage-related companies took a turn for the worse in the last day or two. OldRepublic International (RMIC) swung to a $66 million loss in the secondquarter on worsening claims costs in its troubled mortgage guaranty business.The insurer said Thursday it would likely place the mortgage guaranty unit intorun-off mode if it does not manage to transfer the unit to a separatelycapitalized subsidiary before the end of August. CEO Aldo Zucaro in Januarypredicted the mortgage guaranty industry won’t be profitable until 2013.
PHH lost $41million, in part due “fair value charges on mortgage servicing rights(MSR)” of $117 million. During the 2nd quarter the investor sawinterest rate lock commitments (IRLCs) of $7.5 billion, compared to $8.4billion in the second quarter of 2010. Its mortgage loan servicing portfolioincreased to $174 billion as of June 30, 2011, up from $156 billion at June 30,2010. “While our servicing portfolio delinquencies rose slightly to 3.22%at quarter-end from 3.15% at the end of the first quarter, they are stillapproximately half those of most other large servicers. Foreclosure costs remainelevated at $24 million, compared to $20 million in the second quarter of 2010,driven by increased repurchase requests. As we expected, our mortgageorigination market share declined from 4.3% in the first quarter of 2011 to3.7% in the second quarter.”
Genworth Financial lost $96million in the 2nd quarter. The company said its U.S. mortgageinsurance unit’s operating loss worsened to $253 million in the quarter,compared with a loss of $40 million in the same period last year. The widerloss came after the company set aside $300 million in reserves to cover badloans. Genworth noted that the total flow of delinquencies declined 2 percentfrom the previous quarter, however.
One bright spot, if there is one,is that D.R. Horton, the largest U.S. homebuilder, reported abigger-than-expected quarterly profit, helped by cost cuts. The company managedto cut its selling, general and administrative expenses to less than 12% ofrevenue.
One issue that seems to havequieted down is LO compensation. But it is in no way a dead issue as companiescontinue to adjust and fine tune the rules and regulations. National MortgageNews came out with a list of “Ongoing Reminders About CompensationUnder the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act”worth noting. Lenders are encouraged to remember that payments made bycreditors to loan originators are not payments made directly by the consumer,regardless of how they might be disclosed under HUD’s Regulation X, whichimplements the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act. Because the long-termperformance of the loans is not a term or condition of a loan it is permissibleto go back and “ding,” or take back part or all of the commission ona particular loan from a loan originator, if the loan has an early defaultbecause that’s not a term or condition. “However, you should be certainyou are not violating wage and hour laws of the Fair Labor Standards Act andnot violating state wage and hour laws as set forth by the Division of LaborStandards Enforcement in California or for that matter, any other state.”
The third item on this list is a reminder that compensation to originators canvary based on how the loan application was produced, for example, commissionsmay be higher for leads generated by the originator versus the company. FederalReserve Board staff states that as long as compensation is not based on loanterms or conditions, or a proxy, it is acceptable. If pricing of two loansdiffers, there may be a concern that channel is being used as a proxy for loanterms or conditions but other factors may justify differences. Be certain youcan prove it in the event of an audit. Fourth, a mortgage loan originator is aperson who arranges, negotiates or obtains a loan for a consumer and whosecompensation is based on whether any particular loan is originated. Thus thereare two sets of requirements to be a loan originator: (1) arranging,negotiating or obtaining a loan for a consumer and also (2) having compensationbased on any particular loan. Both sets of requirements must be met for aperson to be a loan originator, and this person may not pay some or all of thethird party fees of a consumer or otherwise credit the consumer out of his ownpocket. Lastly, it appears that for purposes of the Dodd-Frank rule affiliatesare treated as a single person, so that when a lender acts as a mortgage brokerand is thus, a loan originator for purposes of the rule where there is a partythat is an affiliated settlement service provider, such as a title company, thebona fide and reasonable charges received by the affiliated settlement serviceprovider are also considered part of the loan originator compensation.
At least rates are behaving.Thursday rate-sheet MBS prices (Fannie 4’s, which contain 4.25-4.625%mortgages) rallied nicely, resulting in some intra-day price improvements.Treasuries opened higher following a mixed session overnight on poor earningsand weak economic news, as well as, on the uncertainty regarding the U.S. debtceiling. The 10-year note closed with a yield of 2.95%.
We opened this morning with the10-yr at 2.92%: Spain’s credit rating (remember Europe? It isn’t going away.)was put on downgrade watch by Moody’s, and the PM announced they would dissolvethe parliament and hold early elections in November. (Maybe the US should trythat.) China may lend money to Greece. Over here, the Tea Party resistance sunkBoehner’s bill before it ever made it to a vote. Republican officials will tryto push something through again this morning, but all I see in the press ismore jawboning.
WIFE’S DIARY:
Tonight, I thought my husband was acting weird. We had made plans to meet at anice restaurant for dinner. I was shopping with my friends all day long, so Ithought he was upset at the fact that I was a bit late, but he made no commenton it. Conversation wasn’t flowing, so I suggested that we go somewhere quietso we could talk. He agreed, but he didn’t say much. I asked him what was wrong;He said, ‘Nothing.’ I asked him if it was my fault that he was upset. He saidhe wasn’t upset, that it had nothing to do with me, and not to worry about it.On the way home, I told him that I loved him. He smiled slightly, and keptdriving. I can’t explain his behavior I don’t know why he didn’t say, ‘I loveyou, too.’ When we got home, I felt as if I had lost him completely, as if hewanted nothing to do with me anymore. He just sat there quietly, and watchedTV. He continued to seem distant and absent. Finally, with silence all aroundus, I decided to go to bed. About 15 minutes later, he came to bed. But I stillfelt that he was distracted, and his thoughts were somewhere else. He fellasleep – I cried. I don’t know what to do. I’m almost sure that his thoughtsare with someone else. My life is a disaster.
HUSBAND’S DIARY:
Boat wouldn’t start, can’t figure it out.
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