[MBS Commentary] – MBS RECAP: Mortgages Outperform As Headlines Batter Treasuries

MBS RECAP: Mortgages Outperform As Headlines Batter Treasuries

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Monday, December 31, 2012 4:06 PM

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Today’s headlines generally erred on the site of optimism for some sort of stop-gap Fiscal Cliff agreement and Treasuries began taking their lumps early and often.  10yr yields came in the door just under 1.7 but went out in the mid 1.75’s.  In terms of price, that was a 16 tick loss for 10yr Treasuries.  Contrast this to Fannie 3.0 MBS, which hit the 2pm early close a scant 3 ticks lower at 104-25 and the outpeformance is clear.  There was no relevant economic data released during today’s shortened session, and as-expected, the market was exclusively focused on the on-again/off-again Fiscal Cliffhijinks that played out in various speeches from political leaders.  This ultimately ended with the news that the House isn’t likely to vote on a mini-deal by midnight–news conveniently timed about 3 minutes after stock markets closed.  It’s no real bombshell, however, as futures markets are still open and didn’t manifest a panicked reaction.  It’s also not a bombshell because it’s no surprise that things don’t happen efficiently, smoothly, as-expected, or as-promised in Washington.  Fiscal-Cliff dealings have been a nauseating reminder of that fact.  NOTE: BOND MARKETS ARE CLOSED FOR NEW YEARS DAY TOMORROW.  Normal trading hours will resume on Wednesday morning

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[Mortgage Rate Watch] – Mortgage Rates Higher As Washington Scrambles For Fiscal Cliff Deal

Mortgage Rates Higher As Washington Scrambles For Fiscal Cliff Deal

Posted to: Mortgage Rate Watch
Monday, December 31, 2012 1:26 PM

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Mortgage rates moved moderately higher to end the year, reversing last week’s trend of small improvements.  In Washington, Fiscal Cliff negotiations have seemingly come to a head with a deal still possible before midnight tonight.  That possibility has bond markets more cautious today, and although mortgage-backed-securities have been less damaged than Treasuries in the process, it’s been enough to raise borrowing costs on the prevailing Best-Execution rate of 3.375% for conventional 30yr fixed loans.  Markets and Mortgage Lenders will be closed for New Years Day tomorrow.

Whether or not we get some sort of Fiscal Cliff deal by tonight, the fact remains that any attempts to reduce spending and/or increase taxes amounts to “austerity.”  Opinions and predictions as to how the US economically copes with austerity can justifiably vary, though the consensus is certainly that austerity makes growth more difficult.  In that regard, a Fiscal Cliff deal doesn’t have a negative connotation for rates in the long term (because it would take stronger and more sustainable improvements in the economy to support higher rates).

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[MBS Commentary] – MBS MID-DAY: Slightly Weaker But Off The Lows

MBS MID-DAY: Slightly Weaker But Off The Lows

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Monday, December 31, 2012 11:06 AM

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With Japanese markets closed, overnight trading activity was light.  10yr Treasuries began the European hours in slightly weaker Territory than Friday’s worst levels, but improved into the domestic open.  This helped MBS  come in the door right in the middle of Friday’s range, but bond markets sold-off moderately on a series of Fiscal Cliff headlines.  None of the news was meaningful or specific, but markets seem to be giving some consideration to lack of negative headlines.  In other words, traders have arrived this morning to see some equivocal-but-not-negative Fiscal Cliff headlines, and for lack of a more elegant way to put it, that’s better than nothing.  Despite the small dose of weakness, 104-24 has been supportive for Fannie 3.0s for all but a few of the spikier moves.  NOTE: bond markets close early today.  Make sure you’re up to speed on any changes to lock desk times, and keep in mind that politicians may well drop tape bombs tonight and tomorrow that markets won’t have a chance to respond to until Wednesday.  That means that if some iteration of a Fiscal Cliff deal happens to pass, and if bond markets are going to sell-off as a result, that they will be selling off heavily on Wednesday morning, BEFORE rate sheets come out.  

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[Pipeline Press] – Mortgage Jobs Heading into 2013; Several States’ Minimum Wages to Rise Tomorrow; Agency and Investor Updates Continue

Mortgage Jobs Heading into 2013; Several States’ Minimum Wages to Rise Tomorrow; Agency and Investor Updates Continue

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Monday, December 31, 2012 8:25 AM

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As our nation prepares to begin the new year, the U.S. Census Bureau today projected that on Jan. 1, 2013, the total United States population will be 315,091,138. This represents an increase of 2,272,462, or 0.73%, from New Year’s Day 2012. We are currently seeing a rate of one birth every eight seconds in the United States and one death every 12 seconds. And you heard this “who cares?” news here first: Kim Kardashian is pregnant with Kanye West’s baby. But we digress…

Lenders continue to expand! As previously mentioned in this column, iServe is a growing national GNMA approved issuer and a “one-stop shop focused upon speed and quality of service.” iServe is hiring NMLS licensed Originators, Branch Managers and Regional Managers in key markets throughout the United States. Check its website for all 22 of the licensed states at joiniserve.com or email joiniserve@iservelending .com. For Regional Manager opportunities email Ken Michael at kmichael@iservelending .com. All inquiries are held in strict confidence.

And speaking of expansion, Colorado State Bank & Trust Mortgage Group is hiring several Mortgage Loan Originators and Sales Managers for various offices throughout Colorado. CSBT is a subsidiary of BOK Financial Corporation (NASDAQ symbol: BOKF) a $27 billion financial holding company, and CSBT itself dates back to 1908.  “We’re proud of our heritage and pleased at our long-time role in the Colorado banking community. CSBT’s Loan Originators can expect an aggressive commission structure, competitive pricing, niche products including 100% LTV’s with no MI, 80/10/10s & 97% LPMI, and local processing, underwriting and closing teams to support you and all of your sales efforts.”  Interested applicants should SVP, Gary Tackett at gtackett@csbt .com or visit the website

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[MND NewsWire] – Another Multi-Billion Dollar Foreclosure Abuse Settlement Likely

Another Multi-Billion Dollar Foreclosure Abuse Settlement Likely

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Monday, December 31, 2012 9:07 AM

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Fourteen large banks appear ready to pony up another $10 billion to end allegations of foreclosure abuse.  According to the New York Times, the settlement would end federal investigations into the bank’s purported faulty paperwork and excessive fees.

Unlike the $25 billion settlement between all but one of the states’ attorneys general and some federal agencies completed earlier this year, the lion’s share of the new settlement would go to homeowners.  An estimated $3.75 billion would be used to compensate those already foreclosed and evicted from their homes and $2.25 billion would be used to assist other distressed borrowers to stay in their homes through principal reduction or other loan modifications or by helping those borrowers to refinance.    Under the earlier settlement $1.5 billion was to be used for cash relief to borrowers and some states have made attempts to divert their share of that amount into state treasuries…

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[MBS Commentary] – The Week Ahead: Washington’s Turn To Drop New Years Ball?

The Week Ahead: Washington’s Turn To Drop New Years Ball?

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Sunday, December 30, 2012 10:16 PM

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Both chambers of Congress worked over the weekend to ensure that no Fiscal Cliff deal would accidentally get passed or announced before the last possible minute.  On Fox News, Senator Graham said that chances for a deal are “exceedingly good.”  A few hours later, Majority Leader Reid spoke on the Senate floor saying that “there are still significant differences between the two sides,” but that the Senate intended to continue negotiations.  Just over an hour later, the Senate adjourned, and will reconvene at 1100am EST.

We can only assume that Senator Graham was reprimanded by both sides of the aisle for being overly optimistic on air and that the comically late 11am start time is to help preserve the illusion of strife in Washington as long as possible.  To that end, who knows what the theoretical deadline actually might be!  Some have suggested that we have to make it through Boehner’s re-election as House Speaker before more progress can be made (Jan 3rd) while others are hoping for an 11th hour deal on Monday night.

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[MBS Commentary] – MBS RECAP: Jostled By Cliff Headlines, Bond Markets Come Out On Top

MBS RECAP: Jostled By Cliff Headlines, Bond Markets Come Out On Top

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, December 28, 2012 4:06 PM

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For a trading day that had a good amount of potential for volatility, today turned out the be pretty tame, especially for MBS which held a 6 tick range from open to close.  Things kicked off in moderately improved territory and silently held a super narrow range near yesterday’s highs (104-29 to 104-30) in anticipation of Fiscal Cliff news ahead of weekend attempts at deal-making.  Like clockwork, the first headlines of the day hit just before 11am and caused a series of minor shocks for Treasuries and MBS.  A majority of bond market volume had come and gone in the hour following those headlines.  Markets did more drifting vs determined trading until new headlines out of the White House landed around 3:30pm indicating that Obama was not actually making a new offer at today’s Fiscal Cliff meeting (this seemed to be the suggestion of the morning’s headlines).  S&P’s sold off 10 points by the close and Futures are currently down 20 points from the pre-headline highs.  Bond markets only got a small taste of that “risk-off” move, though Treasuries hit their best levels of the day and MBS reinforced a supportive range into the close.

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Daily Newsletter: Mortgage Rates End Week At Best Levels; Pending Home Sales; Mortgage Defaults Rise

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30 Year Fixed

3.39%   -0.01

15 Year Fixed

2.75%   +0.00

10YR Treasury

1.70%   -0.0364

FNMA 30YR 3.5

106.61   +0.08

FNMA 15YR 2.5

105.50   +0.03

Friday December 28, 2012
Mortgage Rate Watch – 2:55PM
Mortgage rates continued a moderate trend of improvement from mid-week, bringing rates to their best levels of the week on Friday. All of the recent day-over-day changes in rates have …
Pipeline Press – 10:17AM
“We’re lost, but we’re making good time.” The CFPB does not seem to be lost, and is certainly feeling its way along. From it we learned that between July 21, 2011 and September 30, …
MND NewsWire – 10:29AM
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index reached the highest level seen in two and a half years in November after posting its third consecutive monthly …
MND NewsWire – 10:35AM
Default rates for first mortgage loans increased in both October and November according to the S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian. The increases drove the national default rate …
MBS Live Chat – 3:43PM

“RTRS- IF THERE IS NO VIABLE COUNTERPROPOSAL, OBAMA TO ASK FOR UP-OR-DOWN VOTE IN CONGRESS ON HIS PLAN-SOURCE…”

MBS Live Chat – 3:41PM

“RTRS- IF CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS DON’T SUPPORT HIS PLAN, OBAMA WILL ASK THEM FOR COUNTERPROPOSAL TO AVOID CLIFF-SOURCE…”

MBS Live Chat – 3:42PM

“re: counterproposal… isn’t that how it’s worked up until now?…”

MND NewsWire – 5:07PM

“Gosh, MIke, sorry you are so offended. Not sure why you would think there’s a limited pool of folks eligible to refi with HARP, FHA and VA streams, and the new USDA pilot streamline program out there. Perhaps your marketing plan differs from mine, but there’s certainly no shortage of qualified folks…”

Today’s Rates
Best Execution
Rate Change
30 Yr FRM 3.39% -0.01
15 Yr FRM 2.75% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.25% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.59% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.00% +0.00
Average Mortgage Rates
Rate Points Change
FHFA *
15 Yr. Fixed 2.81% 1.00 -0.10
30 Yr. Fixed 3.54% 1.24 -0.08
MBA **
30 Yr. Fixed 3.50% 0.44 +0.03
15 Yr. Fixed 2.83% 0.26 -0.02
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.73% 0.29 -0.04
30 Yr. FHA 3.34% 0.54 +0.02
5/1 ARM 2.61% 0.36 -0.02
Freddie Mac **
30 Yr. Fixed 3.35% 0.70 -0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 2.65% 0.70 +0.00
1 Yr. ARM 2.56% 0.50 +0.04
5/1 Yr. ARM 2.70% 0.70 -0.01
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
Secondary Markets
MBS
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 104.91 +0.13
30YR FNMA 3.5 106.61 +0.08
30YR GNMA 3.0 106.36 +0.16
30YR GNMA 3.5 108.64 +0.08
15YR FNMA 3.0 105.50 +0.03
15YR FNMA 2.5 104.55 +0.05
Treasuries
Yield Change
2 YR 0.2504% -0.0118
5 YR 0.7102% -0.0207
10 YR 1.6991% -0.0364
30 YR 2.8641% -0.0382
Prices as of: 12/28/2012 4:26PM EST
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates End Week at Best Levels, but Risks Persist

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30 Year Fixed

3.39%   -0.01

15 Year Fixed

2.75%   +0.00

10YR Treasury

1.69%   -0.0433

FNMA 30YR 3.5

106.66   +0.13

FNMA 15YR 2.5

105.53   +0.06

Mortgage Rates End Week at Best Levels, but Risks Persist
December 28, 2012

Mortgage rates continued a moderate trend of improvement from mid-week, bringing rates to their best levels of the week on Friday.  All of the recent day-over-day changes in rates have taken place on quite a small scale historically as broader markets stay exceptionally contained ahead of the Fiscal Cliff deadline.  Conventional 30yr Fixed Best-Execution rates are still widely viable at 3.375%, but 3 days of minor improvements brings 3.25% increasingly back into view.

(Read More:What is A Best-Execution Mortgage Rate?)

Despite the positive tone to end the week, markets and mortgage rates are still at risk for additional volatility related to the Fiscal Cliff.  The House of Representatives will reconvene on Sunday Evening–something that likely wouldn’t be happening unless they’re trying to pass at least some sort of stop-gap form of legislation. 

The way markets respond to Sunday and Monday’s political news will depend largely on the details of the news, but also on the simple fact that SOMETHING either will or won’t have been accomplished by the end of 2012.  At the risk of stating the obvious, if Washington accomplishes ANYTHING (even if it’s small, short-term, and innocuous), it’s still better than NOTHING

All things being equal, any passage of legislation stands the risk of putting pressure on bond markets and mortgage rates.  The extent of the pressure is where the details are important.  It’s very much a guessing game as to where rates will lead off next week, next month, and next year (all happening on Tuesday!).  Because of that, it continues to be the case that there’s more risk than reward to floating in the short term.


Loan Originator Perspectives

“I still favor floating til January. Markets waiting for a fiscal cliff solution but seems to me all solutions should help rates hold steady to improve. Regardless, we are going to have higher taxes and less spending..neither good for a struggling economy. Dont forget, the Fed is so concerned about our economy, they announced basically unlimited monetary easing at their last meeting. On a side note, early reports show Christmas spending to be disappointing which also favors low rates.” –Victor Burek, Open Mortgage.

“With the uncertainty of a Fiscal Cliff deal, and this being a long holiday weekend, I would not risk floating your interest rate if you are closing soon. However, if the Cliff is not resolved, we may see an opportunity to lock in at low’s not seen for a while.” –Brett Boyke, Senior Mortgage Banker, Wintrust.


Today’s Best-Execution Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 3.375%
  • FHA/VA – 3.25% (varies more between lenders than conventional 30yr Fixed)
  • 15 YEAR FIXED –  2.875% – 2.75%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS –  2.625-3.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Rates and costs continue to operate near all time best levels, but uncertainty surrounding the Fiscal Cliff is applying upward pressure.
  • Rates could easily move higher or lower, but given the nearness to all time lows, there’s generally more risk than reward regarding floating
  • This will always be the case when rates operate near all-time levels, and as 2011 showed us, it doesn’t always mean they’re done improving.
  • (As always, please keep in mind that our talk of Best-Execution always pertains to a completely ideal scenario.  There can be all sorts of reasons that your quoted rate would not be the same as our average rates, and in those cases, assuming you’re following along on a day to day basis, simply use the Best-Ex levels we quote as a baseline to track potential movement in your quoted rate).
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

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Today’s Rates
Best Execution
Rate Change
30 Yr FRM 3.39% -0.01
15 Yr FRM 2.75% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.25% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.59% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.00% +0.00
Average Mortgage Rates
Rate Points Change
FHFA *
15 Yr. Fixed 2.81% 1.00 -0.10
30 Yr. Fixed 3.54% 1.24 -0.08
MBA **
30 Yr. Fixed 3.50% 0.44 +0.03
15 Yr. Fixed 2.83% 0.26 -0.02
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.73% 0.29 -0.04
30 Yr. FHA 3.34% 0.54 +0.02
5/1 ARM 2.61% 0.36 -0.02
Freddie Mac **
30 Yr. Fixed 3.35% 0.70 -0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 2.65% 0.70 +0.00
1 Yr. ARM 2.56% 0.50 +0.04
5/1 Yr. ARM 2.70% 0.70 -0.01
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
Secondary Markets
MBS
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 104.92 +0.14
30YR FNMA 3.5 106.66 +0.13
30YR GNMA 3.0 106.38 +0.17
30YR GNMA 3.5 108.66 +0.09
15YR FNMA 3.0 105.53 +0.06
15YR FNMA 2.5 104.59 +0.09
Treasuries
Yield Change
2 YR 0.2504% -0.0118
5 YR 0.7054% -0.0255
10 YR 1.6922% -0.0433
30 YR 2.8585% -0.0438
Prices as of: 12/28/2012 4:22PM EST
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
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If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information

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About This Report

Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month.  Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available.  We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
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[Mortgage Rate Watch] – Mortgage Rates End Week At Best Levels, But Risks Persist

Mortgage Rates End Week At Best Levels, But Risks Persist

Posted to: Mortgage Rate Watch
Friday, December 28, 2012 2:55 PM

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Mortgage rates continued a moderate trend of improvement from mid-week, bringing rates to their best levels of the week on Friday.  All of the recent day-over-day changes in rates have taken place on quite a small scale historically as broader markets stay exceptionally contained ahead of the Fiscal Cliff deadline.  Conventional 30yr Fixed Best-Execution rates are still widely viable at 3.375%, but 3 days of minor improvements brings 3.25% increasingly back into view.

(Read More:What is A Best-Execution Mortgage Rate?)

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