Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Recent Gains

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30 Year Fixed

4.41%   +0.02

15 Year Fixed

3.63%   +0.01

10YR Treasury

2.49%   +0.0154

FNMA 30YR 3.5

101.44   +0.03

FNMA 15YR 2.5

102.73   -0.05

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Recent Gains
June 28, 2013

After surging lower yesterday, mortgage rates managed to hold on to most of those improvements, ending a week that stands as a welcome push back against the previous week–one of the worst ever.  On average, borrowing costs were slightly higher today, though some lenders offered positively revised rate sheets with lower costs vs yesterday.  Trading activity was volatile in that the movement between highs and lows happened quickly and frequently, but was contained by a narrow range relative to recent sessions.  This allowed the 30yr Fixed  best-execution to remain at 4.5%.

Interest rates in general (not just mortgage markets, but in US Treasuries as well) made a very equivocal statement to end the week/month/quarter with respect to long term ranges.  Back in mid 2010, rates had fallen rapidly to end up in roughly the same territory they are now.  Markets spent several months poking and prodding in this range before ultimately moving higher into the end of the year. When rates began falling significantly in mid 2011, it was the first major stopping point where the downward momentum paused for consolidation.  Since then, we’ve only come close to that range twice before re-entering it in recent weeks.

When any financial instrument, including rates, shows a pattern of being more likely to “bounce” at a certain level versus moving through those levels, it’s called an “inflection point.”  When we look back on our current visit to this inflection point (months from now), we’re more likely to see that rates have either bounced lower for a time, or that this week was one of those “pauses for consolidation” before continuing in the same direction. 

The likelihood of either path stands the best chances of being determined by the major employment data in the near term.  The first such report is out on Wednesday of next week, but the big one is on Friday, a week from today.  As for today, while it did help end the week on a positive note, it certainly left the longer term trend up in the air, and very much at the whim of next week’s data.

Though markets have exhaled somewhat, and moved partially back lower in rate, the overall move of the past 2 months is one of the fastest ever in terms of the pace of change.  Instead of retelling the “story” of this crash, we’ll simply catalog some of the recent relevant discussions for those wanting more background on the abrupt movements:

May 22nd: Why Did Mortgage Rates Skyrocket Past 2013 Highs on Wednesday?

May 28th: Mortgage Rates Vault Catastrophically Higher

June 19th:Mortgage Rates Annihilated; Brief History of All-Time Lows

June 21st: Nightmare for Mortgage Rates: Way Worse Than Freddie Told You

 

Loan Originator Perspectives

“Once again which way are rates going? Good question, but it looks like the recent jump is relaxing a little to the down side. Let’s hope this continues as we make a move back towards 4%. ” –Mike Owens, Partner, Horizon Financial Inc

“Up and down in MBS Land so far today, with net effect being slightly higher rates/costs for borrowers. It will be interesting to see if the market moves much between now and the NFP report for June (released 7/5) Good news is that we are retaining most of the last two days’ improvements, at least for the moment!” –Ted Rood, Senior Originator, Wintrust Mortgage

“Rates stayed pretty flat today and low trading volume is expected for the upcoming holiday week. Next Friday’s Non-farm payroll report is the next event on the horizon that could move rates significantly. Lately NFP has not been good for rates. If closing in July, locking looks prudent here.” –Alan Craft, Branch Manager, Prime Mortgage Lending Inc 

Today’s Best-Execution Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.5%
  • FHA/VA – 4.25% 
  • 15 YEAR FIXED –  3.625%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS –  2.875-3.375% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • After rising consistently from all-time lows in September and October 2012, rates challenged the long term trend higher, but failed to sustain a breakout
  • Uncertainty over the Fed’s bond-buying plans is causing immense volatility in rates markets and generally leading rates quickly higher
  • Fears about the Fed’s bond-buying intentions were proven well-founded on May 22nd when rates rose to 1yr highs after the Fed indicated their intention to taper bond buying programs sooner vs later
  • The June 19th FOMC Statement and Press Conference confirmed the suspicions.  Although tapering wasn’t announced, the Fed made no move to counter the notion that they will decrease bond buying soon if the economic trajectory continues
  • Rates Markets “broke down” following that, as traders realized just how much buy-in there was to the ongoing presence of QE.  These convulsions led to one of the fastest moves higher in the history of mortgage rates and market participants have not been eager to be the among the first explorers to head back into lower rate territory until they’re sure they’ll have some company.
  • (As always, please keep in mind that our Best-Execution rate always pertains to a completely ideal scenario.  There are many reasons a quoted rate may differ from our average rates, and in those cases, assuming you’re following along on a day to day basis, simply use the Best-Ex levels we quote as a baseline to track potential movement in your quoted rate).
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

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Today’s Rates
Best Execution
Rate Change
30 Yr FRM 4.41% +0.02
15 Yr FRM 3.63% +0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.25% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.42% +0.00
5/1 Yr ARM 3.01% -0.02
Average Mortgage Rates
Rate Points Change
FHFA *
15 Yr. Fixed 3.03% 0.84 +0.07
30 Yr. Fixed 3.77% 1.20 +0.03
MBA **
30 Yr. Fixed 4.17% 0.41 +0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 3.30% 0.39 -0.02
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.23% 0.34 -0.02
30 Yr. FHA 3.85% 0.22 +0.04
5/1 ARM 2.81% 0.35 +0.03
Freddie Mac **
30 Yr. Fixed 4.46% 0.80 +0.53
15 Yr. Fixed 3.50% 0.80 +0.46
1 Yr. ARM 2.66% 0.50 +0.09
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.08% 0.70 +0.29
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
Secondary Markets
MBS
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 97.66 +0.05
30YR FNMA 3.5 101.44 +0.03
30YR GNMA 3.0 98.78 -0.14
30YR GNMA 3.5 102.47 -0.08
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.73 -0.05
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.38 -0.03
Treasuries
Yield Change
2 YR 0.3593% +0.0000
5 YR 1.3961% +0.0130
10 YR 2.4894% +0.0154
30 YR 3.5022% -0.0331
Prices as of: 6/28/2013 4:32PM EST
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
About This Report

Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month.  Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available.  We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
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[Community Commentary] – Do’s and Don’t’s For a Smooth Mortgage Process: Part 5

Do’s and Don’t’s For a Smooth Mortgage Process: Part 5

Posted to: Community Commentary
Friday, June 28, 2013 12:20 AM

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Here’s another weekly installment of Do’s and Don’t’s for prospective borrowers embarking on, or already engaged in the home mortgage process.  In case it needs to be said, the Don’t’sare strictly for comedy (though most are based on real world examples of things that will kill or greatly delay the mortgage process). 

The “do’s,” on the other hand, are potentially valuable nuggets of information that may greatly benefit your mortgage experience.  In fact, most of them can end up making a difference in the success or failure of a loan, and at the very least, can help avoid costly delays.

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[MBS Commentary] – MBS RECAP: Volatile But Range-Bound to End Month

MBS RECAP: Volatile But Range-Bound to End Month

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, June 28, 2013 5:06 PM

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Given all the volatility of the past 2 months–and especially the past 2 weeks–today’s movements in MBS and Treasuries were relatively tame by comparison.  This is most true in terms of the outright highs and lows.  For instance, MBS went no higher than yesterday’s highs and didn’t even come close to early morning lows.  The volatile aspect of the day was the speed with which prices whipped between those highs and lows.  It was more or less a classic case of month-end/quarter-end volatility and it leaves the broader rate outlook very much in limbo heading into next week’s employment data.  There is probably a little bit of positivity that rates markets could scrape together, but pivot points around 2.47 in 10yr yields and 101-15 in Fannie 3.5s are looking fairly ominous unless we happen to blow through them first thing Monday morning. 

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[Mortgage Rate Watch] – Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Recent Gains

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Recent Gains

Posted to: Mortgage Rate Watch
Friday, June 28, 2013 5:07 PM

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After surging lower yesterday, mortgage rates managed to hold on to most of those improvements, ending a week that stands as a welcome push back against the previous week–one of the worst ever.  On average, borrowing costs were slightly higher today, though some lenders offered positively revised rate sheets with lower costs vs yesterday.  Trading activity was volatile in that the movement between highs and lows happened quickly and frequently, but was contained by a narrow range relative to recent sessions.  This allowed the 30yr Fixed  best-execution to remain at 4.5%.

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Colorado, Weld County Valuation;

Assessed valuation is a gusher in Weld County
The increase in value is largely attributable to oil and natural-gas production, which makes up 55% of the county's total assessed value.  The largest increase came from the Wattenberg field, the area extending from north of Denver well into Weld County, which marks the sweet spot of Weld's oil and gas drilling boom.  Assessed property values in Weld County, long known for its affordable, rural lifestyle, have reached $7.1 billion this year, putting it on par with the wealthiest counties in metro Denver.

Highest regards,

Erick B. Strobel  

Home Lender * Mortgage Loan Officer

[Pipeline Press] – MBA Compliance Tracking Site; Impound Account Site; State-Level News

MBA Compliance Tracking Site; Impound Account Site; State-Level News

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Friday, June 28, 2013 9:01 AM

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Huh? This is the last business day of the first half of 2013? Where does time go? And there will be plenty of folks on vacation next week, with its mid-week holiday. Some smart folks out there think, just like a good portion of volume that didn’t fund in December 2012 carried forward into 2013, many of the loans locked now that aren’t close will close in July – so July fundings should be decent. “Where does that leave August or September?” they wonder among themselves. Lenders wonder that too, especially any shop which built its foundation on refinancing. Those companies are desperately attempting to capture a portion of the hot purchase market, but it can take years to develop a good relationship with a decent builder or Realtor.

Educating compliance folks is critical, with so much going on. The MBA has created the new “Are You Ready 2014″ webpage that centralizes the association’s resources regarding education, conferences, documents from the regulator, like CFPB, and MBA analysis. It even includes an easy way to submit questions to the CFPB. The questions are emailed to CFPB and copied to the MBA so it can monitor what is on the agency’s plate.

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[MBS Commentary] – MBS MID-DAY: Jar of Flies; Bond Markets Hit Both Sides

MBS MID-DAY: Jar of Flies; Bond Markets Hit Both Sides

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, June 28, 2013 12:21 PM

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The turning of the corner noted in the last alert quickly turned in to a revisit to the highs of the day. Fannie 3.5s hit 101-15 and are currently still fairly close at 101-12, but look more like they are “bouncing inside the weekly range” as opposed to charging higher into uncharted territory. That said, it’s still month-end, and there could still be a big “pop” in trading levels lurking until closer to 2-3pm.  Even then, mortgage markets got what they came for, with a flurry of positive reprices over the past hour.  More could be in store while we hold these levels, but again, things look bouncy and contained (like a fly in a jar).  10yr yields, having scooted quickly over 2.47 to start the day, only made it back to 2.486 before bouncing up over 2.51 currently.  They could “fly” as high as 2.54 without breaking out of their “jar.”  Above all, keep an eye out for volatility as many market participants are done early today, leaving less liquidity to facilitate any last minute month/quarter-end trades.

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[MBS Commentary] – The Day Ahead: Month End vs the QE Cue Trade

The Day Ahead: Month End vs the QE Cue Trade

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, June 28, 2013 7:42 AM

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If market participants were into trading cards, the flavor of the month would certainly be “cue cards.”  These are the things you need when you’re not quite sure what to say, right?  But in the financial market’s version of the game, the cards are actually “QE Cue” cards, typically held up by various Fed speakers and read almost exactly the same way by stocks and bonds alike.  In other words, when Fed-speak leads markets to conclude that QE is at less risk of tapering, bond yields drop and stock prices rise.  That’s been the more frequently the case of late, as opposed to the obvious movement after last week’s FOMC where stock prices swung lower and bond yields spiked.  As we’ve noted, it’s made for a bit of Rorshach test effect when the charts are overlaid.  Sort of mesmerizing:

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Daily Newsletter: Mortgage Rates Drop at Fastest Pace of the Year; Why the Surge in Pending Home Sales Might be Temporary

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30 Year Fixed

4.39%   -0.13

15 Year Fixed

3.62%   -0.10

10YR Treasury

2.47%   -0.0688

FNMA 30YR 3.5

101.41   +0.84

FNMA 15YR 2.5

102.78   +0.42

Thursday June 27, 2013
Mortgage Rate Watch – 9:34PM
Even though the most common weekly rate survey was out today showing a significant increase in rates, it was merely catching up to the move we already reported on Friday. Today, however …
MND NewsWire – 11:09AM
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said today that rising interest rates may finally be forcing many hesitant buyers into the market. NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI …
MND NewsWire – 10:46AM
After five years of tough sledding, the Las Vegas real estate market may be turning around . DataQuick reports that home sales in the city – which was among the metro areas hardest …
Pipeline Press – 10:43AM
The MBA reported that independent mortgage banks saw their profit per loan take a tumble during the first quarter, down about $500 per loan versus the fourth quarter of 2012. The average …
MBS Live Chat – 5:21PM

“This site has proved it’s value in so many ways to me. Thanks MG and thanks to all the chat participants….”

MBS Live Chat – 3:07PM

“REPRICE : 3:07 PM – Wells Fargo Better…”

MBS Live Chat – 2:37PM

“REPRICE : 2:37 PM – Chase Better…”

MBS Live Chat – 2:32PM

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MBS Live Chat – 2:29PM

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MBS Live Chat – 2:23PM

“REPRICE : 2:23 PM – BB&T Better…”

MBS Live Chat – 2:23PM

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MBS Live Chat – 2:22PM

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MBS Live Chat – 2:12PM

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Today’s Rates
Best Execution
Rate Change
30 Yr FRM 4.39% -0.13
15 Yr FRM 3.62% -0.10
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.25% -0.09
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.42% -0.08
5/1 Yr ARM 3.03% +0.02
Average Mortgage Rates
Rate Points Change
FHFA *
15 Yr. Fixed 3.03% 0.84 +0.07
30 Yr. Fixed 3.77% 1.20 +0.03
MBA **
30 Yr. Fixed 4.17% 0.41 +0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 3.30% 0.39 -0.02
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.23% 0.34 -0.02
30 Yr. FHA 3.85% 0.22 +0.04
5/1 ARM 2.81% 0.35 +0.03
Freddie Mac **
30 Yr. Fixed 4.46% 0.80 +0.53
15 Yr. Fixed 3.50% 0.80 +0.46
1 Yr. ARM 2.66% 0.50 +0.09
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.08% 0.70 +0.29
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
Secondary Markets
MBS
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 97.61 +0.86
30YR FNMA 3.5 101.41 +0.84
30YR GNMA 3.0 98.92 +1.42
30YR GNMA 3.5 102.55 +1.28
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.78 +0.42
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.41 +0.67
Treasuries
Yield Change
2 YR 0.3593% -0.0275
5 YR 1.3831% -0.0403
10 YR 2.4740% -0.0688
30 YR 3.5353% -0.0428
Prices as of: 6/27/2013 4:31PM EST
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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Daily Rate Update: Biggest Drop This Year for Mortgage Rates

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30 Year Fixed

4.39%   -0.13

15 Year Fixed

3.62%   -0.10

10YR Treasury

2.47%   -0.0688

FNMA 30YR 3.5

101.41   +0.84

FNMA 15YR 2.5

102.78   +0.42

Mortgage Rates Drop at Fastest Pace of the Year
June 27, 2013

Even though the most common weekly rate survey was out today showing a significant increase in rates, it was merely catching up to the move we already reported on Friday. Today, however, mortgage rates actually surged lower , capping an almost triumphant 3 days spent earning back some of last week’s losses.  We’re now somewhere between last Thursday and Friday’s levels on average, though we’d emphasize that there’s still a significant amount of lender-specific variation in the day-to-day movements.   While lenders may be moving at different paces relative to their previous rate sheets, you’d be hard pressed to find one that wasn’t significantly lower today vs yesterday.  The improvement was enough to bring 30yr Fixed  best-execution down a full eighth of a point to 4.5%!

This is the sort of improvement vs recent high rates that we’d hoped to see come out of the past two days of consolidation.  There was no way to be sure it would happen, and borrowers who locked in the past few days should NOT second guess that prudent decision!  If a team of the most successful traders on wall street were tasked with simply deciding to lock or float any ONE loan with no means of hedging that risk, they would absolutely have done the same given the current level of volatility. 

It’s possible that rates continue to improve between now and next week’s anticipated market movers on Wednesday and Friday, but here’s the important thing to remember: Just because rates were much lower for most of our recent memory, and just because they’ve moved lower for 2-3 days in a row, it doesn’t mean that they are determined to make it back to those past levels.  Markets are still in the process of assessing whether or not a long term shift has been made, and nothing that we’ve seen in the past few days (OR that we can see tomorrow) would rule out that possibility.  It has been and continues to be the case that those risks will be solidified or mitigated by next week’s Jobs report.

Though markets have exhaled somewhat, and moved partially back lower in rate, the overall move of the past 2 months is one of the fastest ever in terms of the pace of change.  Instead of retelling the “story” of this crash, we’ll simply catalog some of the recent relevant discussions for those wanting more background on the abrupt movements:

May 22nd: Why Did Mortgage Rates Skyrocket Past 2013 Highs on Wednesday?

May 28th: Mortgage Rates Vault Catastrophically Higher

June 19th:Mortgage Rates Annihilated; Brief History of All-Time Lows

June 21st: Nightmare for Mortgage Rates: Way Worse Than Freddie Told You

 

Loan Originator Perspectives

“Once again which way are rates going? Good question, but it looks like the recent jump is relaxing a little to the down side. Let’s hope this continues as we make a move back towards 4%. ” –Mike Owens, Partner, Horizon Financial Inc

“I’m also hesitant to mention it (for fear of jinxing the market), but we have solid gains across the board in MBS Land today. Even the 3.0% coupon, which was devastated last week amid rising rate expectations, is outperforming today. Bottom line, while we’re still below last week’s best levels, market sentiment has swung in our favor. Will float new applications at least short term, but with a finger poised to lock if necessary.” –Ted Rood, Senior Originator, Wintrust Mortgage

“After several weeks of a steady climb in rates, we are now looking at back to back days of decent improvements. I am not ready to call this a reversal, but I am more optimistic. I am still advising my clients to lock their rates in but offering an option to relock in rates continue to improve.” –Kenneth Crute Branch Manager Prime Mortgage Lending Inc 

Today’s Best-Execution Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.5%
  • FHA/VA – 4.25% 
  • 15 YEAR FIXED –  3.625%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS –  2.875-3.375% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • After rising consistently from all-time lows in September and October 2012, rates challenged the long term trend higher, but failed to sustain a breakout
  • Uncertainty over the Fed’s bond-buying plans is causing immense volatility in rates markets and generally leading rates quickly higher
  • Fears about the Fed’s bond-buying intentions were proven well-founded on May 22nd when rates rose to 1yr highs after the Fed indicated their intention to taper bond buying programs sooner vs later
  • The June 19th FOMC Statement and Press Conference confirmed the suspicions.  Although tapering wasn’t announced, the Fed made no move to counter the notion that they will decrease bond buying soon if the economic trajectory continues
  • Rates Markets “broke down” following that, as traders realized just how much buy-in there was to the ongoing presence of QE.  These convulsions led to one of the fastest moves higher in the history of mortgage rates and market participants have not been eager to be the among the first explorers to head back into lower rate territory until they’re sure they’ll have some company.
  • (As always, please keep in mind that our Best-Execution rate always pertains to a completely ideal scenario.  There are many reasons a quoted rate may differ from our average rates, and in those cases, assuming you’re following along on a day to day basis, simply use the Best-Ex levels we quote as a baseline to track potential movement in your quoted rate).
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

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Today’s Rates
Best Execution
Rate Change
30 Yr FRM 4.39% -0.13
15 Yr FRM 3.62% -0.10
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.25% -0.09
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.42% -0.08
5/1 Yr ARM 3.03% +0.02
Average Mortgage Rates
Rate Points Change
FHFA *
15 Yr. Fixed 3.03% 0.84 +0.07
30 Yr. Fixed 3.77% 1.20 +0.03
MBA **
30 Yr. Fixed 4.17% 0.41 +0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 3.30% 0.39 -0.02
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.23% 0.34 -0.02
30 Yr. FHA 3.85% 0.22 +0.04
5/1 ARM 2.81% 0.35 +0.03
Freddie Mac **
30 Yr. Fixed 4.46% 0.80 +0.53
15 Yr. Fixed 3.50% 0.80 +0.46
1 Yr. ARM 2.66% 0.50 +0.09
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.08% 0.70 +0.29
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
Secondary Markets
MBS
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 97.61 +0.86
30YR FNMA 3.5 101.41 +0.84
30YR GNMA 3.0 98.92 +1.42
30YR GNMA 3.5 102.55 +1.28
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.78 +0.42
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.41 +0.67
Treasuries
Yield Change
2 YR 0.3593% -0.0275
5 YR 1.3831% -0.0403
10 YR 2.4740% -0.0688
30 YR 3.5353% -0.0428
Prices as of: 6/27/2013 4:31PM EST
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
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Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month.  Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available.  We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.

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