Daily Newsletter: Mortgage Rates Rise for 1st Time in 3 Weeks; No Housing Bubble, but Maybe a ‘Bubble Mentality’; New HUD Definition for Qualified Mortgage

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30 Year Fixed
4.29% +0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.41% +0.01
10YR Treasury
2.62% -0.0109
FNMA 30YR 3.5
101.88 +0.14
FNMA 15YR 2.5
103.52 +0.17
View Today’s Rates
Monday September 30, 2013
Mortgage Rate Watch – 6:45PM
Mortgage Rates Rise; 1st Time in Nearly 3 Weeks
Mortgage rates rose very slightly today for the first time in 3 weeks. The difference in rate sheets compared to Friday’s latest was minimal, and some lenders were actually slightly …
MND NewsWire – 12:38PM
Shiller Sees no Housing Bubble, but Perhaps a ‘Bubble Mentality’
While the real estate market has been bubbling, Robert J. Shiller doesn’t think we are in a real estate bubble. At least not yet . Shiller who, along with Karl Case, developed the S&P …
MND NewsWire – 12:48PM
New HUD QM Definition: Biggest Impact, Lower Lender Legal Costs
Another definition of Qualified Mortgage (QM) was rolled out for comment today. This one, proposed by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) would apply to mortgages …
Pipeline Press – 10:47AM
Who Owns an LO’s Client List? The FHA Needs How Much? The MBA Addresses the Shutdown
“Rob, I attended a seminar last week, and one of the speakers mentioned something called ‘Freddith Mae’. Ever heard of that?” Nope – either I’m out of touch & confused, or someone …

Latest Video


Market to ignore Congress ‘crying wolf’: Pro

Shutdown worries weigh down on markets

Santelli’s Midday Bond Report

More News from ‘Around the Web’

Today’s Comments

avatar.aspx MBS Live Chat – 3:28PM
“same Lock/float consensus for a close on Oct 21? Lock it up?…”
avatar.aspx MBS Live Chat – 3:31PM
“I will say this until I go blue in the face. If you need to come on here and ask advice about whether you should lock from complete strangers who have never met or spoken to you ever, you are working with the wrong loan officer…”
avatar.aspx MBS Live Chat – 3:36PM
“I agree too, but on the other hand don’t you educate your client on the pros/cons of floating/locking and then have them decide? They might be on here to do research and get informed. Doesn’t mean they are working with the wrong person….”
avatar.aspx MBS Live Chat – 3:39PM
“LL, depends on the terms, I would say lock, only because rates are as good as they have been in the last 3 or so months, also, based on what has happened over the last few months when rates do rise, it will most likely be quick….”
avatar.aspx MBS Live Chat – 3:44PM
“MU, I seriously doubt most LO’s have their ear to the market than the regular MBS live user. I think it is wise for a consumer to use whatever tools are available to them to make a decision that is in their best interest, regardless of who they are working with, if I was a consumer I would do the same…”
Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.29% +0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.41% +0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.00% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.33% +0.00
5/1 Yr ARM 3.10% +0.02

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.62% 1.06 +0.18
30 Yr. Fixed 4.49% 1.21 +0.22
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.62% 0.41 -0.13
15 Yr. Fixed 3.68% 0.28 -0.13
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.66% 0.29 -0.17
30 Yr. FHA 4.32% 0.37 -0.18
5/1 ARM 3.39% 0.35 -0.15
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.32% 0.70 -0.18
15 Yr. Fixed 3.37% 0.70 -0.17
1 Yr. ARM 2.63% 0.40 -0.02
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.07% 0.50 -0.04

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 97.75 +0.16
30YR FNMA 3.5 101.88 +0.14
30YR GNMA 3.0 98.52 -0.03
30YR GNMA 3.5 102.72 -0.05
15YR FNMA 3.0 103.52 +0.17
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.59 +0.20
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 0.3207% -0.0156
5 YR 1.3880% -0.0146
10 YR 2.6154% -0.0109
30 YR 3.6934% +0.0096
Prices as of: 9/30/2013 4:30PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2013 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Rise; 1st Time in Nearly 3 Weeks

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.29% +0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.41% +0.01
10YR Treasury
2.62% -0.0109
FNMA 30YR 3.5
101.88 +0.14
FNMA 15YR 2.5
103.52 +0.17
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Rise; 1st Time in Nearly 3 Weeks
September 30, 2013
Mortgage rates rose very slightly today for the first time in 3 weeks. The difference in rate sheets compared to Friday’s latest was minimal, and some lenders were actually slightly better today. Despite the minimal rise, this technically ends an impressive streak of 13 straight days without moving higher. The average 30yr fixed rate was 4.75% when the streak began and now stands at 4.25% (best-execution) for conforming, 30yr Fixed loans. With the exception of Friday, today’s rate sheets are the best since June 19th for most lenders.

Financial markets began the week increasingly enthralled by the ‘Government Shutdown’ debate, though that’s still not much at all compared to mainstream media. Even within financial markets, the ‘fixed-income’ sector containing the Mortgage-Backed-Securities that most directly affect mortgage rates was much less interested in political developments than the stock market.

Rather than give the impression of being overly concerned by a potential shutdown, rates continue to suggest they’re waiting for input from important economic data in order to adjust expectations about Fed policy at the end of the month. The most important event to take in will be the jobs report currently scheduled for Friday, though if a government shutdown isn’t averted tonight, that report may be delayed indefinitely (because it’s published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics–a government office).

Loan Originator Perspectives

“Rates seem to have found a comfortable range while we await jobs data at the end of the week. Of course, the potential government shut down could also impact rates, but most likely our wonderful politicians will work out some kind of resolution before much damage is done. I continue to advise clients to lock if within 15 days of closing. Longer term locks should also consider locking as that would completely rule out being caught on the wrong side if we get some positive news, but I think floating overnight does not carry much risk but not sure if there would be much to gain. It will take a weak jobs report on Friday for us to see rates move in a sizable way.” –Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

“Rates remain close to Friday’s. All eyes are on our govt right now, wondering if an actual shutdown will occur. Lock it if you like it.” –Bob Van Gilder, Finance One Mortgage

“Political uncertainty can boost MBS demand, and market gained slightly as DC drama unfolded today. Ironic that fiscal dysfunction can help rates, but we’ll take it. With rates nearing three month lows, it’s tempting to lock in price gains, but floating remains a viable option, IF borrowers are working with an accessible, MBS informed loan officer.” –Ted Rood, Senior Originator, Wintrust Mortgage

Today’s Best-Execution Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.25%
  • FHA/VA – 4.0-4.25%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.375-3.5%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 3.0-3.50% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Uncertainty over the Fed’s bond-buying plans is causing immense volatility in rates markets and generally leading rates quickly higher
  • Expectations for “tapering” (a reduction in “QE3” asset purchases) mounted over the summer and September 18th was seen as the most likely day for a potential tapering announcement
  • But the Fed decided to keep a change in QE amounts on hold until the economy could more convincingly show that rising rates (which had been rising because markets expected the Fed to taper!) wouldn’t be too big an impediment to further improvement.
  • That’s resulted in the first meaningful “pause” in the “rising rate environment” since it began in earnest in May, 2013. This won’t necessarily be an ongoing move in the other direction, and we’re nowhere near May’s rates yet, but it’s a good opportunity to get back in the market if rising rates pushed you out sometime between now and then.
  • The extent to which that remains true relies on incoming economic data. Strong data will increase the speculation that the next Fed meeting will contain a reduction in purchases
  • (As always, please keep in mind that our Best-Execution rate always pertains to a completely ideal scenario. There are many reasons a quoted rate may differ from our average rates, and in those cases, assuming you’re following along on a day to day basis, simply use the Best-Ex levels we quote as a baseline to track potential movement in your quoted rate).

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.29% +0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.41% +0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.00% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.33% +0.00
5/1 Yr ARM 3.10% +0.02

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.62% 1.06 +0.18
30 Yr. Fixed 4.49% 1.21 +0.22
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.62% 0.41 -0.13
15 Yr. Fixed 3.68% 0.28 -0.13
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.66% 0.29 -0.17
30 Yr. FHA 4.32% 0.37 -0.18
5/1 ARM 3.39% 0.35 -0.15
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.32% 0.70 -0.18
15 Yr. Fixed 3.37% 0.70 -0.17
1 Yr. ARM 2.63% 0.40 -0.02
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.07% 0.50 -0.04

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 97.75 +0.16
30YR FNMA 3.5 101.88 +0.14
30YR GNMA 3.0 98.52 -0.03
30YR GNMA 3.5 102.72 -0.05
15YR FNMA 3.0 103.52 +0.17
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.59 +0.20
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 0.3207% -0.0156
5 YR 1.3880% -0.0146
10 YR 2.6154% -0.0109
30 YR 3.6934% +0.0096
Prices as of: 9/30/2013 4:30PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2013 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

MBS Commentary – MBS RECAP: Government Shutdown Limbo; Bumpy Ride, but Strong Finish

MBS RECAP: Government Shutdown Limbo; Bumpy Ride, but Strong Finish

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Monday, September 30, 2013 4:09 PM

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In the context of the nearly month-long rally in place since Sep 6th, today’s MBS movements were more volatile than average. Fannie 3.5s started the day in line with Friday’s highs and ratcheted abruptly lower, especially into 10:30am. The bounce back to unchanged levels was nearly as abrupt, and quickly have way to another tumble to the lows. The day ended with prices progressing steadily to the best levels of the day by the last hour of trade.

This was a mere shadow of the volatility present in Treasuries where 10yr yields broke fully outside Friday’s range, both at the lows and highs, by 10:30. Yields bounced twice just over 2.64 before progressing in the same positive direction as MBS into the close. We’re reluctant to put too much emphasis on government shutdown headlines though a resolution or lack thereof will still likely have an impact on tomorrow morning’s trading levels.

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MND NewsWire – New HUD QM Definition: Biggest Impact, Lower Lender Legal Costs

New HUD QM Definition: Biggest Impact, Lower Lender Legal Costs

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Monday, September 30, 2013 11:41 AM

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Another definition of Qualified Mortgage (QM) was rolled out for comment today. This one, proposed by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) would apply to mortgages insured, guaranteed, or administered by HUD and to single family mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA).

HUD says its proposal, open for public comments until October 30, is aligned with the Ability-to-Repay criteria set out in the Truth in Lending Act (TILA) and also builds off of the QM rule from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) finalized earlier this year.

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MND NewsWire – Shiller Sees no Housing Bubble, but Perhaps a ‘Bubble Mentality’

Shiller Sees no Housing Bubble, but Perhaps a ‘Bubble Mentality’

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Monday, September 30, 2013 10:07 AM

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While the real estate market has been bubbling, Robert J. Shiller doesn’t think we are in a real estate bubble. At least not yet. Shiller who, along with Karl Case, developed the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Index, wrote a column for the this Sunday’s New York Times explaining why 2013 is not 2004.

The Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Index has seen a real, inflation-corrected rise of 18.4 percent in the 16 months ended in July, Shiller said, only about 4 basis points below the largest 16 month increase during the years-long run-up to the 2008 financial crisis. Is it possible, Shiller asks, “that we are lapsing into what I call a bubble mentality – a self-reinforcing cycle of popular belief that prices can only go higher?”

He sees a lot of differences between then – the pre-2008 period – and now and uses the results of this year’s installment of a survey he and Case have conducted since 2003 to illustrate them. The survey involves sending questionnaire to a random sample of recent homebuyers in Boston, Milwaukee, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. The results from the most recent survey conducted in May and June suggest, Shiller said, that we are not in a bubble now but there are troubling signs we may be heading into one.

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MBS Commentary – MBS MID-DAY: Volatile Morning; Prices Stay Close to Unchanged

MBS MID-DAY: Volatile Morning; Prices Stay Close to Unchanged

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Monday, September 30, 2013 11:09 AM

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Bond markets started the day in slightly stronger territory though remained in line with Friday’s latest levels. Overnight events were supportive for Treasuries, including political drama at home and abroad (more details in the 9:13am Alert below). 10yr Treasury yields already were already bouncing off overnight lows just before 8am, but a reversal in the Italy-inspired flight to safety sent small shockwaves through European bond markets, further applying pressure to Treasuries.

The net effect was a bond market that was stronger at 8am, then weak enough by 10:30am to necessitate an early reprice risk. Several lenders repriced worse and now the weakness has ebbed and prices are back in line with Friday’s latest levels. Bottom line, the volatility was noticeable but moderate.

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Pipeline Press – Who Owns an LO’s Client List? The FHA Needs How Much? The MBA Addresses the Shutdown

Who Owns an LO’s Client List? The FHA Needs How Much? The MBA Addresses the Shutdown

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Monday, September 30, 2013 8:51 AM

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“Rob, I attended a seminar last week, and one of the speakers mentioned something called ‘Freddith Mae’. Ever heard of that?” Nope – either I’m out of touch & confused, or someone else is and you should ask for your money back. But one thing I am confused about, and it is probably only me, is what a “rule” is. When I was growing up, a rule was a rule. Now, since the industry is subject to the CFPB’s rulings, we seem to have a rule announced, then time for public comment, then a final rule, and a public comment period, and then amendments, with public comments, and then changes to those. Look how many times Reg. Z has been changed – maybe I am the one who is confused.

The big news for today comes from FHA, which announced it will need a $1.7 billion bailout from the Treasury to cover projected losses in its reverse mortgage programs (currently at $5 billion). Plenty of industry observers have been predicting this day. Federal Housing Administration Commissioner Carole Galante told Congress in a letter that her agency will withdraw the money from the Treasury before the fiscal year ends today, although Congressional approval is not required. The FHA suffered big losses when many reverse mortgage borrowers took large payments up-front and later ran into financial problems, often due to falling home values during the financial crisis. As we have all heard, the FHA is required by law to maintain reserves equal to 2% of the total amount of home mortgages it insures. The 2% capital reserve ratio is aimed at covering projected losses over the next 30 years in the agency’s Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund.

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