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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice. You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications. |
Monthly Archives: November 2013
MBS Commentary – MBS RECAP: Weaker After Data; How Much Should you Blame the Holiday?
MBS RECAP: Weaker After Data; How Much Should you Blame the Holiday?
Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, November 27, 2013 4:05 PM
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Today offers a very interesting set of circumstances to consider for MBS and mortgage rates. First, we can safely assume that rate sheets have been erring conservatively heading into the extended weekend and less-liquid month-end environment. It’s tempting to pass the weakness off as purely a factor of the holiday-light volume, but low volume doesn’t equate to weakness any more than high volume equates to strength.
There were real reasons for rates to move higher this week, just as there were real reason for them to make similar moves during Thanksgiving week last year (Greek bailout headlines, remember those?). The important difference is that last year offered real reasons for bond markets to bounce back after the holiday weekend, not to mention that there was another full week left in November.
This year, the Monday after Thanksgiving is also the first trading day in December, so any potential help from month-end buying has already played out (though some might be seen in limited quantities on Friday’s half-day). Whether or not we bounce back from these holiday blues will have more to do with domestic economic data as Monday leads off a busy week with ISM Manufacturing.
Granted, we’ve seen a pretty solid 4-day rally back from last week’s FOMC Minutes get mostly crushed in a day and a half, but that 4-day rally brought bond markets squarely to the CENTER of their long term (through May 2013) ranges. The technical bounce against that midpoint is a possibility. Rates are probably more nimble than they seem right now, ready to go either direction based on next Friday’s Employment data, but willing to start taking the proverbial “lead-off” with next week’s early data.
More from MND:
- Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Back up to Recent Highs
- MBS Commentary: MBS MID-DAY: Big, Nasty Sell-Off… Happy Holidays!
- Pipeline Press: Generally Good News in the Housing Market; No Change to Conforming Loan Limits
- MND NewsWire: Mortgage Applications Unchanged After Seasonal Adjustments
- MBS Commentary: The Day Ahead: Unofficial Month-End; Busiest Econ Calendar of the Week
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MBS Commentary – MBS MID-DAY: Big, Nasty Sell-Off… Happy Holidays!
MBS MID-DAY: Big, Nasty Sell-Off… Happy Holidays!
Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, November 27, 2013 12:05 PM
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In homage to 2012, we have a fairly substantial Thanksgiving sell-off on our hands. For what it’s worth, the substantial Thanksgiving sell-off of 2012 ended up looking very much like a holiday-related blip and rates returned to their best pre-Thanksgiving levels by December 6th. While that past performance is no guarantee of future results, it is a good reminder that these sorts of things can and do happen (super light liquidity heading into holiday weekends making it easy for prices to slide farther than they otherwise might).
Today’s drama began in earnest with Chicago PMI, which came in stronger than expected. It was followed 10 minutes later by somewhat stronger-than-expected Consumer Sentiment. The last bit of insult to injury came in the form of a weak 7yr Treasury auction (released earlier than normal). The net effect is over half a point of weakness for MBS (snapshot below is from 11:04am, but prices have fallen further since then) and 10yr yields up to 2.76%. Most lenders have repriced worse. The rest probably will.
More from MND:
- Pipeline Press: Generally Good News in the Housing Market; No Change to Conforming Loan Limits
- MND NewsWire: Mortgage Applications Unchanged After Seasonal Adjustments
- MBS Commentary: The Day Ahead: Unofficial Month-End; Busiest Econ Calendar of the Week
- MBS Commentary: MBS RECAP: Mortgage Markets in Holiday Stance
- Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Continue Flat, Holiday Trend
If you have trouble viewing this email, you can read the full post at http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/333713.aspx
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Pipeline Press – Generally Good News in the Housing Market; No Change to Conforming Loan Limits
Generally Good News in the Housing Market; No Change to Conforming Loan Limits
Posted to: Pipeline Press
Wednesday, November 27, 2013 8:39 AM
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A new housing brief from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that median home values in many small counties across the nation held steady after the most recent recession, while values in large counties declined. These findings come from the Census Bureau’s recently released brief, which uses the American Community Survey three-year estimates to focus on homeownership rates and home values for smaller areas. Contained in the report is some pretty interesting data for Wednesday-morning economists.
The gathered statistics show that in 67% of the 1,038 smaller counties (with populations between 20,000 and 65,000) the median home value in the post-recession period of 2010-2012 was not statistically different from the recession period of 2007-2009. Similarly, the median home values in 37 of the 50 smallest counties of this size were not statistically different from the recession period. In contrast, median home values in 43 of the 50 largest counties declined over the same period. Nationally, the median home value was $174,600 in the post-recession period, a $17,300 decline from the recession period of 2007-2009. New York County, NY had the highest median home value at $812,300 in 2010–2012. Santa Clara County, CA had the second highest median home value at $634,000, followed by Honolulu County, HI ($556,400) and Kings County, NY ($556,300), which were not significantly different from each other.
More from MND:
- MND NewsWire: Mortgage Applications Unchanged After Seasonal Adjustments
- MBS Commentary: The Day Ahead: Unofficial Month-End; Busiest Econ Calendar of the Week
- MBS Commentary: MBS RECAP: Mortgage Markets in Holiday Stance
- Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Continue Flat, Holiday Trend
- MND NewsWire: Conforming Loan Limits Stay Put for 2014, Including High Cost Areas
If you have trouble viewing this email, you can read the full post at http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/pipelinepress/11272013-conforming-loan-limits-mel.aspx
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MND NewsWire – Mortgage Applications Unchanged After Seasonal Adjustments
Mortgage Applications Unchanged After Seasonal Adjustments
Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, November 27, 2013 8:35 AM
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Applications for mortgages moved in two directions during the week ending November 22, depending on whether the figures were presented “as is” or on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said today that the Market Composite Index, a measure of loan application volume, decreased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis but was up 9 percent on an unadjusted basis compared to the previous week.
There was a similar dichotomy with the Purchase Index which fell 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted and rose 6 percent compared with the week ended November 15. When compared to the same week in 2012 the Purchase Index was up 35 percent.
More from MND:
- MBS Commentary: The Day Ahead: Unofficial Month-End; Busiest Econ Calendar of the Week
- MBS Commentary: MBS RECAP: Mortgage Markets in Holiday Stance
- Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Continue Flat, Holiday Trend
- MND NewsWire: Conforming Loan Limits Stay Put for 2014, Including High Cost Areas
- MND NewsWire: FHFA Price Increases more Modest than Case-Shiller
If you have trouble viewing this email, you can read the full post at http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/11272013_application_volume.asp
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MBS Commentary – The Day Ahead: Unofficial Month-End; Busiest Econ Calendar of the Week
The Day Ahead: Unofficial Month-End; Busiest Econ Calendar of the Week
Posted to: MBS Commentary
Tuesday, November 26, 2013 8:53 PM
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Despite the term “extended weekend” being thrown around a bit, bond markets are open for a half day on Friday. While that technically makes it the last day of the month, there are all kinds of reasons that today will be just as much of a “month-end” session, if not more so. In fact, some of the seemingly incongruous movement between data, Treasuries, and MBS is likely due to the month-end tradeflow considerations. With light liquidity ruling the week, it makes good sense for traders to do what they need to do while there are relatively more counterparties around to take the other side of the trade.
Beyond those phantom forces that may or may not be pushing in either direction, there are the regular technical and fundamental considerations. On the fundamental side, Jobless Claims is forgettable as it’s not an NFP survey week and is also more heavily discounted during the holiday season. Durable Goods are seen making a pretty big swing lower from 3.8 to -1.9 and with that sort of distance to travel, the door is open for a bigger beat/miss to catch more investors offsides.
The highlight of the morning, however, is the data duo at 9:45 and 9:55, Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment. Of the two, Chicago PMI tends to pack a bigger punch, but said punch would likely wait for confirmation or rejection from Sentiment 10 minutes later before getting too punchy. Even then, technicals could be just as potent. They seem to be guiding the week for Treasuries so far (see chart below), though they may be close to running their current course and thus facing a decision to bounce or proceed. Whatever path is chosen, the best bet is that it will be inconsequential compared to the fork in the road we come to with next Friday’s NFP.
More from MND:
- MBS Commentary: MBS RECAP: Mortgage Markets in Holiday Stance
- Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Continue Flat, Holiday Trend
- MND NewsWire: Conforming Loan Limits Stay Put for 2014, Including High Cost Areas
- MND NewsWire: FHFA Price Increases more Modest than Case-Shiller
- MBS Commentary: MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Hold Gains After Weaker Consumer Confidence
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Daily Newsletter: Conforming Loan Limits Stay Put for 2014, Including High Cost Areas; Home Price Growth Slowing; Mortgage Rates Flat
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MBS Commentary – MBS RECAP: Mortgage Markets in Holiday Stance
MBS RECAP: Mortgage Markets in Holiday Stance
Posted to: MBS Commentary
Tuesday, November 26, 2013 4:05 PM
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Bond markets were once again in “Holiday stance” as the economic data had precious little effect on Treasuries and less still on MBS. The trend of MBS underperformance continued in general with Fannie 3.5s mostly flat on the day compared to 10yr yields 3.25bp drop. The caveat to the flatness in MBS is that prices started a bit higher this morning and held just above unchanged almost exclusively. Fannie 3.5s were as high as 101-12 for a moment and are coasting out around 101-06 presently. Tomorrow brings the most active calendar day of the week in terms of economic data and tradeflow considerations. If today was any indication, it will take big beats/misses on the data in order to motivate significant movement in rates.
More from MND:
- Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Continue Flat, Holiday Trend
- MND NewsWire: Conforming Loan Limits Stay Put for 2014, Including High Cost Areas
- MND NewsWire: FHFA Price Increases more Modest than Case-Shiller
- MBS Commentary: MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Hold Gains After Weaker Consumer Confidence
- MND NewsWire: Home Price Growth Slowing but Still Bubbly in West
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Continue Flat, Holiday Trend
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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice. You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications. |
MND NewsWire – Conforming Loan Limits Stay Put for 2014, Including High Cost Areas
Conforming Loan Limits Stay Put for 2014, Including High Cost Areas
Posted to: MND NewsWire
Tuesday, November 26, 2013 12:59 PM
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Whether because of the uproar from some members of Congress, the Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors, and other industry players or not, Edward J. DeMarco, Acting Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has left loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac unchanged for the coming year. In a press release on Tuesday DeMarco said that the maximum conforming loan limits for mortgages acquired or guaranteed by the two government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) will remain at $417,000 for one-unit properties in most areas of the country.
Some high costs areas such as Washington, DC, New York, Boston, and large parts of California are exempt from the $417,000 ceiling with limits that range as high as $625,000. This upper limit is also unchanged. It is possible there are areas that have previous fallen into the jumbo mortgage category between the two loan limits that may now be capped at the national limit or have experienced some changes in maximums depending on local calculations.
More from MND:
- MND NewsWire: FHFA Price Increases more Modest than Case-Shiller
- MBS Commentary: MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Hold Gains After Weaker Consumer Confidence
- MND NewsWire: Home Price Growth Slowing but Still Bubbly in West
- MND NewsWire: Building Permits Surge is All Multi-Family
- Pipeline Press: Affiliated Fees to Included in 3% or not?; "Funding" Versus "Closing" – Pick One!
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