Daily Newsletter: Mortgage Rates Improve on Weak GDP, Tame Fed Announcement; Mortgage Apps Lowest since 2000; Up to Half in Some States Want to Move

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30 Year Fixed
4.37% -0.05
15 Year Fixed
3.42% -0.06
10YR Treasury
2.65% -0.0419
FNMA 30YR 3.5
101.53 +0.36
FNMA 15YR 2.5
103.22 +0.23
View Today’s Rates
Wednesday April 30, 2014
Mortgage Rate Watch – 3:27PM
Mortgage Rates Improve on Weak GDP, Tame Fed Announcement
Mortgage rates fell at a solid pace today following a reading on 1st Quarter GDP that was much weaker than expected. Downbeat economic data tends to benefit bond prices, including the …
MND NewsWire – 8:54AM
Mortgage Applications Lowest Since 2000
The week ended April 25 was one of the slowest for mortgage application activity the industry has seen in years. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said applications for both purchase …
MND NewsWire – 12:42PM
Up to Half the Population in Some States Would Rather Live Somewhere Else
In a survey they might as well have subtitled “The Grass is Always Greener,” Gallup found that about a third of Americans would, if given the opportunity, pick a different state in …
Pipeline Press – 10:37AM
Interest-Only Recasts; Referral Fee Discussion; MBA App Numbers
What has Wells Fargo’s Economics Group been writing about recently? The economic recovery, of course; more specifically, how does one compare economic recoveries across economic recoveries …

Latest Video


How will Fed address ‘shocking’ GDP data?

Fed extends taper

Cashin says: Anticipating today’s taper announcement

More News from ‘Around the Web’

Today’s Comments

avatar.aspx MBS Live Chat – 1:00PM
“In principal I think it’s a step in the right direction but I honestly haven’t studied the details deeply….”
avatar.aspx MBS Live Chat – 1:02PM
“i dont like the high costs associated and now that f&f make money why do we want change?…”
avatar.aspx MBS Live Chat – 1:03PM
“FNMA/FHMC worked for what, 70 some years until we got all exotic with loans and didn’t look at any paperwork? Thinking that after Dodd/Frank implementation, we should see if any more tinkering really is even necessary….”
avatar.aspx MBS Live Chat – 1:06PM
“just like us to fix a problem after its been fixed. nothign like fixing it twice…”
avatar.aspx MBS Live Chat – 1:52PM
“Will the Fed statement consider today’s data?…”
avatar.aspx MBS Live Chat – 1:53PM
“probably, I would think they had access to at least the gdp data…”
avatar.aspx MBS Live Chat – 2:00PM
“RTRS – FED SAYS TO REDUCE BOND BUYING TO $45 BILLION PER MONTH, SPLIT AS $20 BLN MBS AND $25 BLN TREASURIES…”
avatar.aspx MBS Live Chat – 2:00PM
“RTRS – FED SAYS GROWTH IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP RECENTLY AFTER HAVING SLOWED SHARPLY DURING THE WINTER IN PART DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER…”
avatar.aspx MBS Live Chat – 2:08PM
“Funny how bonds rally as the Fed continues to reduce it’s buying. Best thing ever….”
avatar.aspx MBS Live Chat – 2:04PM
“Thank you Fed…..stay on course; you’re doing great!…”
Velocify_160x175.png

Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.37% -0.05
15 Yr FRM 3.42% -0.06
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.00% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.12% -0.05
5/1 Yr ARM 3.21% -0.02

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.80% 1.10 +0.13
30 Yr. Fixed 4.67% 1.44 +0.13
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.49% 0.50 +0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 3.55% 0.33 +0.01
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.41% 0.34 +0.02
30 Yr. FHA 4.20% 0.41 +0.06
5/1 ARM 3.16% 0.36 +0.01
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.33% 0.60 +0.06
15 Yr. Fixed 3.39% 0.60 +0.06
1 Yr. ARM 2.44% 0.50 +0.00
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.03% 0.50 +0.00

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 97.47 +0.39
30YR FNMA 3.5 101.53 +0.36
30YR GNMA 3.0 99.41 +0.27
30YR GNMA 3.5 102.81 +0.38
15YR FNMA 3.0 103.22 +0.23
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.59 +0.23
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
TR_Eikon_Email.png
2 YR 0.4143% -0.0275
5 YR 1.6823% -0.0541
10 YR 2.6513% -0.0419
30 YR 3.4618% -0.0282
Prices as of: 4/30/2014 3:57PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2014 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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MBS RECAP: Weak GDP Helped Some, FOMC got out of the way

MBS RECAP: Weak GDP Helped Some, FOMC got out of the way

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, April 30, 2014 3:54 PM

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Heading into the last hour of trading on this all-star day, bond markets have moved at a fairly average pace, albeit in rate-friendly directions. The direction is welcome, but the magnitude of the move risks being a disappointment considering the magnitude of the miss in GDP (0.1 vs 1.2 forecast).

The caveats are well known and twfold:

1. It’s NFP week so with the much bigger consideration coming up the day after tomorrow, markets hesitate to move as much as they otherwise might.

2. The perennial frustration of interpreting data that’s been tainted with the stench of the…

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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Improve on Weak GDP, Tame Fed Announcement

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.37% -0.05
15 Year Fixed
3.42% -0.06
10YR Treasury
2.65% -0.0419
FNMA 30YR 3.5
101.53 +0.36
FNMA 15YR 2.5
103.22 +0.23
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Improve on Weak GDP, Tame Fed Announcement
April 30, 2014
Mortgage rates fell at a solid pace today following a reading on 1st Quarter GDP that was much weaker than expected. Downbeat economic data tends to benefit bond prices, including the mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) that most directly influence rates. When prices rise, rates fall. The good times kept rolling in the afternoon when the Fed Announcement arrived essentially unchanged from the previous version. The most prevalently quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for best-case scenarios (best-execution) remains at 4.375% in most cases, but the costs associated with that rate fell back to mid-month levels. That drop in costs translates to approximately 0.05% in rate effectively.

Today was an important one to get through for mortgage rates as we work our way toward Friday’s even more important data. The fact that the Fed didn’t change much in their policy statement is not a surprise, but it is somewhat of a surprise to see just how little markets reacted to it. Most of the day’s activity was concentrated on the morning data, which only adds weight to Friday’s Employment Situation Report.

This morning’s low GDP numbers can be at least be discussed in the context of a weather-related slowdown, but it’s important to keep in mind that those numbers include the cold/snowy months whereas Friday’s jobs numbers are for the month of April. If they’re stronger than expected, or even in line with expectations, rates will have ample justification to undo today’s gains.

Loan Originator Perspectives

“So much for rates getting worse as the jobs report nears. We had mixed data this morning, but it appears the much weaker than expected GDP print is drawing the most attention. As of 3pm eastern, some lenders have repriced for the better but more should be on the way. Today’s gains seem unwarranted, so I favor locking. Wait until the end of day to give your lender time to reprice. ” –Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

“LOCK–Take these unexpected gains and run, as we’re currently at the low end of the range. If Friday’s NFP is a stinker and it adds to the rally today on a bad GDP, then we’ll break through the bottom of the range and there will be renegotiation/float down opportunities between now and your close. If NFP is at expectation or better, this is the best pricing you’ll see for some time and you’ll be glad you locked. I think, as a consumer, you’re in a win-win.” –Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com.

“Look at today’s improvements in pricing as a gift and take advantage and lock in and protect these rates. Still in a high risk environment until the Employment Report comes out on Friday. If you’re a risk taker not in a position where higher rates will hurt your chances for qualifying, and your closing date is further out on the time horizon (near 60 days ) rolling the dice may yield benefits but it’s clearly a risky call.” –Hugh W. Page, Sen. Mortgage Consultant, M.B.A. Capital Partners Mortgage

“Interest rates are improving even with positive economic news. Though GDP did disappoint, the weather factor is getting the nod for that number. I would still lock before Friday as there is just too much risk of a reversal. Floating to tomorrow is probably safe, but be ready to lock soon if warranted.” -Michael Owens, VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate, Inc.

“ADP with a slight beat this morning was overshadowed by a much worse than expected GDP reading. We’ve had a nice rally in the afternoon hours following an as expected release on the FOMC rate decision and the prepared comments that followed. With the current market activity I wouldn’t lock at the moment, but if your lender were to pass along an improvement this afternoon, which is less likely on NFP week as they are more likely to hedge leading into Friday, I would take the improvement and lock today as the risk of floating into Fridays employment report outweigh the potential rewards in my opinion. ” –Steve Chizmadia, Mortgage Consultant, American Capital Home Loans

“The Fed decision did not consist of any surprises. QE will be reduced by another 10 billion per month. With the Lack of pre-pays and the slow down in originations I do not see this impacting rates to much. GDP was very weak and this helped the bond market today. All eyes are now on Fridays Job Report. Lock if you get a better rate sheet this afternoon but float into tomorrow if you don’t.” –Manny Gomes, Branch Manager, Norcom Mortgage

Today’s Best-Execution Rates

  • 30YR FIXED –4.375
  • FHA/VA – 4.00%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.5%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • The Fed has stayed the course on their $10bln per meeting reduction in bond buying, though markets have handled it relatively calmly compared to the days of “coming to terms with tapering” in 2013.
  • Rates fell significantly in January, leveled-off in February and took choppy steps higher in March
  • Some mitigating factors had kept rates from moving too far out of a narrow range, including the uncertain impact of weather on recent economic data as well as geopolitical risk surrounding Ukraine
  • As soon as investors can have more confidence that the incoming data is an accurate representation of economic conditions, we should see more willingness for rates to react accordingly, with weaker data helping keep rates lower and stronger data pushing them back toward January’s highs.
  • Barring surprises, even within the very narrow trend from January through March, we’ve seen a slight bias toward higher rates. It will take economic or geopolitical surprises to push back against that momentum.
  • (As always, please keep in mind that our Best-Execution rate always pertains to a completely ideal scenario. There are many reasons a quoted rate may differ from our average rates, and in those cases, assuming you’re following along on a day to day basis, simply use the Best-Ex levels we quote as a baseline to track potential movement in your quoted rate).

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.37% -0.05
15 Yr FRM 3.42% -0.06
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.00% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.12% -0.05
5/1 Yr ARM 3.21% -0.02

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.80% 1.10 +0.13
30 Yr. Fixed 4.67% 1.44 +0.13
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.49% 0.50 +0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 3.55% 0.33 +0.01
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.41% 0.34 +0.02
30 Yr. FHA 4.20% 0.41 +0.06
5/1 ARM 3.16% 0.36 +0.01
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.33% 0.60 +0.06
15 Yr. Fixed 3.39% 0.60 +0.06
1 Yr. ARM 2.44% 0.50 +0.00
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.03% 0.50 +0.00

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 97.47 +0.39
30YR FNMA 3.5 101.53 +0.36
30YR GNMA 3.0 99.41 +0.27
30YR GNMA 3.5 102.81 +0.38
15YR FNMA 3.0 103.22 +0.23
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.59 +0.23
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 0.4143% -0.0275
5 YR 1.6823% -0.0541
10 YR 2.6513% -0.0419
30 YR 3.4634% -0.0266
Prices as of: 4/30/2014 3:53PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2014 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
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GSE’s Pass FHFA Stress Tests with no Treasury Debits

GSE’s Pass FHFA Stress Tests with no Treasury Debits

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, April 30, 2014 1:30 PM

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This will be the first year that financial institutions will be required to submit to stress tests under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Previous stress tests, dating back to 2010, were required and conducted by the Treasury Department. Like other financial companies with consolidated assets of more than $10 billion and which are regulated by a primary federal regulatory agency, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (the GSEs) will be required to take the tests to determine if they have the capital necessary to absorb losses as a result of adverse economic conditions.

In addition to the Dodd-Frank requirements, the GSEs’ regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has continued its practice of working with the companies to develop forward-looking financial projections across three possible house price paths. These are referred to as the FHFA scenarios and the GSEs, as in the past, have been required to conduct them in conjunction with the other stress tests. This, however, will be the last year for this FHFA requirement.

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Differences Between Past and Current FOMC Statements

Differences Between Past and Current FOMC Statements

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, April 30, 2014 1:59 PM

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Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. Household spending appears to be rising more quickly. Business fixed investment edged down, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

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Up to Half the Population in Some States Would Rather Live Somewhere Else

Up to Half the Population in Some States Would Rather Live Somewhere Else

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, April 30, 2014 10:59 AM

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In a survey they might as well have subtitled “The Grass is Always Greener,” Gallup found that about a third of Americans would, if given the opportunity, pick a different state in which to live. Even in those states where the largest percentage of residents were satisfied to stay put, almost a quarter would leave if they could.

In three states nearly as many people want to leave as want to stay. Fifty percent of those surveyed in Illinois indicated a desire to move as did 49 percent in Connecticut and 47 percent in Maryland. Other states where at least four out of ten residents felt they would be happier elsewhere included Nevada, Rhode Island, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, and Louisiana.

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MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Staying Strong After Mixed Morning Data

MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Staying Strong After Mixed Morning Data

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, April 30, 2014 11:04 AM

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The blue line is stocks; yellow is 10yr yields. When we see a chart like this on the last 2.5 days of the month–ESPECIALLY when the recent norm has been for stock prices and bond yields to travel together–the tacit suggestion is that bond markets are benefiting from ‘month-end’ buying.

2014-4-30 stock lever

Money managers and other account types have certain trades that either must be made or that would simply be advantageous/prudent to make by the end of the month. This can arise from the need to match a certain published index or simply to “hit numbers” for the month.

One thing we know about…

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