Daily Newsletter: Longest Recorded Refi Boom Ends; New Demographic Emerges; Foreclosure Concentration Concern; What GDP Means for Rates

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30 Year Fixed
4.25% +0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.37% +0.01
10YR Treasury
2.56% +0.0037
FNMA 30YR 3.5
101.83 -0.08
FNMA 15YR 2.5
103.05 -0.02
View Today’s Rates
Thursday July 31, 2014
MND NewsWire – 3:38PM
Longest Recorded Refi Boom Ends; New Demographic Emerges
Freddie Mac has officially declared that the refinancing boom is over. The company’s Refinance Report for the second quarter of 2014 said that the longest refinance boom in the 24 years …
MND NewsWire – 1:04PM
Concentration of Foreclosure Inventory is a Concern – CoreLogic
While completed foreclosures increased slightly from May to June, the foreclosure inventory, a count of homes in the process of foreclosure, continued to slide. CoreLogic’s National …
MBS Commentary – 7:39AM
MBS Day Ahead: What Yesterday’s GDP Shocker Means for Rates
With GDP living up to it’s surprising potential, things have quickly gotten more serious for domestic bond markets. Before yesterday, econo-bears could hold out some hope that Q2 GDP …
Mortgage Rate Watch – 4:09PM
Mortgage Rates Barely Higher, More Volatility Ahead
Mortgage rates started the day in fairly rough shape with most lenders offering noticeably higher rates vs yesterday. As stock markets slid into the afternoon, the bond markets that …

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.25% +0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.37% +0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.75% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.09% +0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.25% +0.00

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.56% 1.13 -0.10
30 Yr. Fixed 4.37% 1.39 -0.16
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.32% 0.16 +0.04
15 Yr. Fixed 3.40% 0.22 -0.02
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.24% 0.16 -0.02
30 Yr. FHA 4.02% -0.03 +0.03
5/1 ARM 3.40% 0.22 -0.02
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.12% 0.60 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 3.23% 0.70 -0.03
1 Yr. ARM 2.38% 0.40 -0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.01% 0.50 +0.02

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 97.91 -0.13
30YR FNMA 3.5 101.83 -0.08
30YR GNMA 3.0 100.00 -0.05
30YR GNMA 3.5 102.92 +0.02
15YR FNMA 3.0 103.05 -0.02
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.59 -0.06
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 0.5354% -0.0236
5 YR 1.7595% -0.0114
10 YR 2.5633% +0.0037
30 YR 3.3217% +0.0107
Prices as of: 7/31/2014 4:29PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2014 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Barely Higher, More Volatility Ahead

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.25% +0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.37% +0.01
10YR Treasury
2.56% +0.0037
FNMA 30YR 3.5
101.83 -0.08
FNMA 15YR 2.5
103.05 -0.02
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Barely Higher, More Volatility Ahead
July 31, 2014
Mortgage rates started the day in fairly rough shape with most lenders offering noticeably higher rates vs yesterday. As stock markets slid into the afternoon, the bond markets that underlie mortgage rates improved. Most lenders put out better rate sheets at some point in the day. In most cases this brought them fairly close to yesterday’s latest levels though rates were just slightly higher on average. The most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for flawless scenarios remains 4.25%.

Tomorrow brings what is traditionally the most important economic report of any given month. The Employment Situation Report is expected to show the economy adding 233k jobs in July with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.1 percent. Of those two figures, markets focus almost exclusively on job creation (expressed in “nonfarm payrolls”). If payrolls are significantly higher than 233k tomorrow, rates will likely move higher as well. There is absolutely no way to know how it will come in ahead of time, but considering what’s at stake, risk outweighs reward when it comes to floating (assuming you have the chance to lock tonight).

Loan Originator Perspective

“Locking is still the easiest and safest option, almost always is actually. However, I think the sell off over the last 2 days takes a little of the risk off in floating. Sure, if NFP beats by a gigantic margin….all bets are off, but a number at or near the forecast of 233k isn’t likely to lead to a lot more damage. Of course, a number of 200K or below is very likely to lead to improvement. Only float if you can tolerate the risk, and if you do, be ready to lock first thing in the morning.” –Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

“The bleeding from yesterday’s strong 2nd Q GDP Report seems to have relented but the always critical and potentially market moving Jobs Report lies in front of us in the morning. If you are closing within 15 days, locking it up today and taking away the risk of another sell off in the mortgage market just makes sense. If you are still a ways off to closing you simply have to assess your risk tolerance as a really strong report tomorrow could send us in to sell off mode again but a weak or benign report could keep us stable and a floating stance more palatable.” –Hugh W. Page, Mortgage Banking Office, Seacoast National Bank

“Our busy week wraps up tomorrow with the release of the Employment Situation Report. In my opinion, I think a pretty good report is baked in already, so I favor floating especially if you have more than a couple weeks until close. As always, if you are happy with the rate and fee structure of current offer, locking is the safe move. Only those that can afford the risk of a higher rate or fee structure should consider floating. ” –Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

“We were lucky to see the market recover the morning losses today, and albeit we saw a few generous reprices we still end the day on rates near yesterdays close. I think tomorrows NFP report is too relevant to speculate a large miss, or rather large enough to get us back to substantially better levels. The risk involved if NFP is a strong number is too large to speculate floating into tomorrow. The only saving grace in the recent sell-off is we are still in the range of 2.44-2.66. 15 days- 100% locked, 30 days- 80% locked, 45 days- 100% floating.” –Constantine Floropoulos, Quontic Bank

“I’d still recommend locking your rate before tomorrow’s jobs report. If the numbers beat estimates, then rates will take another hit. If that’s not the case, I believe improvements will still be minimal at best. Bond markets are still shaking off the stun of the GDP numbers from yesterday. At the moment, stock markets don’t like the numbers either, which may be helping bonds avoid a steeper decline. ” –Michael Owens, VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate, Inc.

Today’s Best-Execution Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.25
  • FHA/VA – 3.75%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.375%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcertingly narrow range in rates. Too many market participants bet on rates going higher in 2014, and markets have punished that imbalance with a paradoxical move lower.
  • As of June, rates were officially lower year-over-year, but that’s due to rates’ path higher in 2013. The current path in 2014 remains sideways.
  • European markets continue to play a nagging role in the background, generally helping rates in the US remain lower than they otherwise might be.
  • From a wider point of view, we’re in limbo, waiting for the first significant move away from the narrow range. A rally into late May stood a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the 2014 range.
  • As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we’ve termedbest-execution(that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also ‘bang-for-the-buck.’ Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points–though this can vary–and tends to predict Freddie Mac’s weekly survey with high accuracy. It’s safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie’s once-a-week polling method).

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
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15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
31?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.25% +0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.37% +0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.75% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.09% +0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.25% +0.00

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.56% 1.13 -0.10
30 Yr. Fixed 4.37% 1.39 -0.16
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.32% 0.16 +0.04
15 Yr. Fixed 3.40% 0.22 -0.02
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.24% 0.16 -0.02
30 Yr. FHA 4.02% -0.03 +0.03
5/1 ARM 3.40% 0.22 -0.02
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.12% 0.60 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 3.23% 0.70 -0.03
1 Yr. ARM 2.38% 0.40 -0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.01% 0.50 +0.02

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 97.91 -0.13
30YR FNMA 3.5 101.83 -0.08
30YR GNMA 3.0 100.00 -0.05
30YR GNMA 3.5 102.92 +0.02
15YR FNMA 3.0 103.05 -0.02
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.59 -0.06
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 0.5354% -0.0236
5 YR 1.7595% -0.0114
10 YR 2.5633% +0.0037
30 YR 3.3217% +0.0107
Prices as of: 7/31/2014 4:29PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2014 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

MBS RECAP: Massive Sell-Off in Stocks but no Rally in Bonds

MBS RECAP: Massive Sell-Off in Stocks but no Rally in Bonds

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Thursday, July 31, 2014 5:05 PM

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It’s not often you’ll see the S&P down over 30 points with less than 1bp of day-over-day movement in 10yr yields, but that’s where we’re heading out today. Things might have been worse for Treasuries, however, had it not been for the stock selling, which prompted some asset reallocation ahead of month-end (sell stocks/buy bonds).

In reality, both sides of the market are disheartened by yesterday’s super strong GDP reading because it drives the point home that Fed accommodation is likely on its last legs. Since the prodigious staying power in stocks is at least mostly a…

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Longest Recorded Refi Boom Ends; New Demographic Emerges

Longest Recorded Refi Boom Ends; New Demographic Emerges

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, July 30, 2014 11:57 AM

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Freddie Mac has officially declared that the refinancing boom is over. The company’s Refinance Report for the second quarter of 2014 said that the longest refinance boom in the 24 years since it started keeping records officially ended in the second quarter. That occasion was marked when the share of mortgages originated for refinancing fell below 50 percent for the first time since the third quarter of 2008.

Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist, said, “The housing market realized a significant shift in the second quarter of this year as refinance activity fell below 50 percent marking the onset of the first purchase-dominated market the industry has seen since 2000 and an end to the refinance boom that started in late 2008. In this time we saw fixed mortgage rates hit all-time lows, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage falling well below 4 percent. We also estimate over 25 million American borrowers refinanced their loans to the tune of over $70 billion in total interest payment savings. However, since 2008 homeowners cashed-out approximately $215 billion in home equity, adjusted for inflation.”

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Concentration of Foreclosure Inventory is a Concern – CoreLogic

Concentration of Foreclosure Inventory is a Concern – CoreLogic

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Thursday, July 31, 2014 9:30 AM

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While completed foreclosures increased slightly from May to June, the foreclosure inventory, a count of homes in the process of foreclosure, continued to slide. CoreLogic’s National Foreclosure Report for June puts the number of homes lost to foreclosure during the month at 49,000 units. While this was an increase of 2.7 percent compared to May’s 48,000 completed foreclosures, it was down 9.9 percent from the 54,000 foreclosures in June 2013.

Even at the declining rate, completed foreclosures are still running at better than twice what is historically considered normal. CoreLogic points out as a basis of comparison that in the six years before the 2007 decline in the housing market, completed foreclosures averaged 21,000 per month. Since the foreclosure crisis began in earnest in September 2008 there have been approximately 5.1 million foreclosures completed.

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MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Bounce Back After Anxiety-Ridden Start

MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Bounce Back After Anxiety-Ridden Start

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Thursday, July 31, 2014 12:34 PM

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The stakes are high for the rest of this week as far as bond markets are concerned. The anxiety is obvious. Is this the turning point where we bounce off periodic lows and head higher? Even if we’re only concerned about the next few weeks, that’s all the time it takes to be a very real issue for current pipelines.

As we discussed this morning, today was to be an intermission of sorts ahead of tomorrow’s NFP, but one that could still offer clues as to the underlying momentum. That momentum looked biased toward further weakness out of the gate this morning as…

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JD Powers Report on Servicing; Non-Vanilla Securitization Market Heating Up

JD Powers Report on Servicing; Non-Vanilla Securitization Market Heating Up

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Thursday, July 31, 2014 8:29 AM

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The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency tells us that 13 out of every 14 mortgages (93.1%) in the United States were “current and performing” at the end of the 1st quarter 2014 compared with 9 out of 10 (90.2%) at the end of the 1st quarter 2013. Why doesn’t the press ever pick up on stats like that? Or remind the industry of the product mix of well-known lenders? For example, Mark Mozilo writes, “Although Countrywide was a leader in the subprime business, subprime only accounted for 10% of its overall production. 90% of Countrywide’s production was prime loans with an average FICO of 700+. Countrywide began its business in 1969 as a FHA/VA & Conventional lender, later moving into jumbo loans, and the last business it moved into was subprime. Since it had such an efficient machine, any product that you ‘fed’ the machine would immediately produce enormous volumes quickly! Subprime makes headlines, ‘boring’ prime loans don’t!” And yesterday the lender was in the news regarding the latest settlement north of a billion dollars.

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