MBS RECAP: Strong Start, Much Weaker Finish as Corporate Deals Hit Rates

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MBS RECAP: Strong Start, Much Weaker Finish as Corporate Deals Hit Rates

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Thursday, February 26, 2015 6:44 PM

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For being a day that followed 2 sessions of gains in a month where 2 sessions of gains is nearly unheard of, today got off to a great start. There were new all-time lows in German Bund yields and US 10s were all the way down to 1.931 at their best levels. By the end of the day though, they’d be exactly 10bps higher.

The weakness started right off the bat after a round of mixed economic data at 8:30am. Perhaps it was the stronger Durable Goods headline or the big increases in Real Wages in the CPI data. Whatever it was, bonds didn’t like it.

Tradeflows…

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Daily Newsletter: FHA’s Role is Shrinking; Rates Slightly Higher Ahead of GDP; Home Prices Outpacing Inflation

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30 Year Fixed
3.79% +0.02
15 Year Fixed
3.09% +0.02
10YR Treasury
2.03% +0.0678
FNMA 30YR 3.5
104.55 -0.23
FNMA 15YR 2.5
104.50 -0.14
View Today’s Rates
Thursday February 26, 2015
MND NewsWire – 12:43PM
By Any Measure FHA’s Role is Shrinking
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) saw its share of the mortgage market soar to 72 percent of all mortgages issued in 2008 as other lenders pulled back and FHA moved into one …
Mortgage Rate Watch – 6:04PM
Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Higher Ahead of GDP
Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, undoing the modest gains seen yesterday, but leaving the more significant drop from Tuesday intact. 3.75% remains the most prevalently-quoted …
MND NewsWire – 12:13PM
Q4 Home Price Gains Outpace Inflation -FHFA
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said today that home prices in the fourth quarter of 2014 were up 1.4 percent compared to the previous quarter and 4.9 percent from the fourth …
Pipeline Press – 12:10PM
Mergers, Acquisitions, and Production Shifts; Upcoming Events and Training
Here in North Dakota, at -9 degrees this morning, appraising properties is a walk in the park, right? What about for appraisers in the Lake Erie area where there’s a land-yacht? And …

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Closing Bell Exchange: Low rates, how long?

Santelli: Treasury rates rise

Jobless claims up 31,000 to 313,000

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.79% +0.02
15 Yr FRM 3.09% +0.02
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.50% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.78% +0.02
5/1 Yr ARM 3.13% +0.02

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.47% 1.11 +0.02
30 Yr. Fixed 4.33% 1.33 -0.01
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 3.93% 0.35 +0.09
15 Yr. Fixed 3.24% 0.35 +0.09
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.92% 0.28 +0.02
30 Yr. FHA 3.73% 0.12 +0.01
5/1 ARM 3.09% 0.47 +0.02
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.80% 0.60 +0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 3.07% 0.60 +0.00
1 Yr. ARM 2.44% 0.40 +0.00
5/1 Yr. ARM 2.99% 0.50 +0.00

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 101.59 -0.34
30YR FNMA 3.5 104.55 -0.23
30YR GNMA 3.0 102.41 -0.28
30YR GNMA 3.5 104.67 -0.16
15YR FNMA 3.0 104.50 -0.14
15YR FNMA 2.5 102.22 -0.23
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 0.6540% +0.0475
5 YR 1.5414% +0.0871
10 YR 2.0348% +0.0678
30 YR 2.6302% +0.0627
Prices as of: 2/26/2015 4:31PM EST

23623981

This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2015 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Higher Ahead of GDP

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30 Year Fixed
3.79% +0.02
15 Year Fixed
3.09% +0.02
10YR Treasury
2.03% +0.0678
FNMA 30YR 3.5
104.55 -0.23
FNMA 15YR 2.5
104.50 -0.14
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Higher Ahead of GDP
February 26, 2015
Mortgage rateswere slightly higher today, undoing the modest gains seen yesterday, but leaving the more significant drop from Tuesday intact. 3.75% remains the most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for top tier scenarios, though a few lenders will have drifted up to 3.875% with today’s weakness.

Today’s losses were a factor of both data and events. This morning’s economic data was mixed, but higher Durable Goods and Real Wages overshadowed higher Jobless Claims. The data started the ball rolling in a negative direction for the markets that affect mortgage rates this morning, and from there, several month-end trading dynamics made for steady losses throughout the day. Particularly, companies issued corporate bonds at a rapid pace this afternoon, and that issuance process can indirectly put some upward pressure on rates.

Tomorrow’s data and events stand a chance to take rates in either direction. At current levels, rates can afford to be receptive to the big data release, which is the 1st revision of Q4 GDP at 8:30am. If the data is much stronger than expected, rates could remain under pressure. If, however, GDP comes in weaker than expected, there’s room to improve. Beyond that, it’s good to keep in mind that rates won’t always move in a logical direction based on the data, and there’s more risk of that on the last day of the month where many traders are moving money for reasons that are unrelated to market fundamentals.


Loan Originator Perspective

“Our streak of good days looks to be ending today. The benchmark 10 year note is still holding under 2.04 which is pretty solid support. Unless your lender repriced for the worse today, you should be seeing similar pricing today. Since we were unable to extend the past couple days of gains, i think it would be prudent to lock short termers. As long as 2.04 holds, i would float longer term closings. Treasury supply is done and tomorrow is month end, hopefully we see some bond buying by investors.” –Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

“Rate markets treaded water today, albeit with small losses. Our hope is that we’re establishing the upper end of the rate range. Any pronounced gains would require serious motivation, and I don’t see that looming. I’m counseling borrowers who are happy with their pricing to lock and eliminate the risk of losing ground, at least until we start trending lower on rates, not sideways to upward.” –Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Today’s Best-Execution Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 3.75
  • FHA/VA – 3.25-3.5
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.00-3.125
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 2.75 – 3.25% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • 2015 began with a strong move to the lowest rates seen since May 2013. The catalyst has been and continues to be Europe.
  • European bond yields trended constantly lower in 2014, thus playing a prominent role in keeping US rates lower than they otherwise might be. Many feel that Europe will continue to slide until their central bank engages in US-style quantitative easing. Some see this happening in early 2015. In any event, we’re looking for a turn in Europe, first and foremost, before worrying about the longer-term trend in bond markets being at serious risk of reversing.
  • It’s impossible to know when Europe will turn a corner, and even then it’s only the sort of thing we’ll be able to observe in hindsight. That means every head-fake toward higher rates runs the risk of developing into a longer term rise, even if those risks vary greatly in terms of probability. Clients with longer term time horizons and who otherwise don’t mind losing some ground in exchange for the chance at locking even lower rates are the only ones who should float. Clients who must close by a certain date or who can’t afford to lose any ground on rates should generally be locking even though the longer term trend has been in their favor for over a year now.
  • As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we’ve termedbest-execution(that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also ‘bang-for-the-buck.’ Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points–though this can vary–and tends to predict Freddie Mac’s weekly survey with high accuracy. It’s safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie’s once-a-week polling method).

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
26?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
26?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.79% +0.02
15 Yr FRM 3.09% +0.02
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.50% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.78% +0.02
5/1 Yr ARM 3.13% +0.02

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.47% 1.11 +0.02
30 Yr. Fixed 4.33% 1.33 -0.01
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 3.93% 0.35 +0.09
15 Yr. Fixed 3.24% 0.35 +0.09
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.92% 0.28 +0.02
30 Yr. FHA 3.73% 0.12 +0.01
5/1 ARM 3.09% 0.47 +0.02
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.80% 0.60 +0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 3.07% 0.60 +0.00
1 Yr. ARM 2.44% 0.40 +0.00
5/1 Yr. ARM 2.99% 0.50 +0.00

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 101.59 -0.34
30YR FNMA 3.5 104.55 -0.23
30YR GNMA 3.0 102.41 -0.28
30YR GNMA 3.5 104.67 -0.16
15YR FNMA 3.0 104.50 -0.14
15YR FNMA 2.5 102.22 -0.23
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 0.6540% +0.0475
5 YR 1.5414% +0.0871
10 YR 2.0348% +0.0678
30 YR 2.6302% +0.0627
Prices as of: 2/26/2015 4:31PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2015 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
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By Any Measure FHA’s Role is Shrinking

By Any Measure FHA’s Role is Shrinking

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Thursday, February 26, 2015 12:04 PM

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The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) saw its share of the mortgage market soar to 72 percent of all mortgages issued in 2008 as other lenders pulled back and FHA moved into one of the two roles it was designed to fill, as a counterforce providing access to credit when the private sector pulls back, typically because of economic stress. Since then that share has steadily declined and FHA is back down to around 15-17 percent.

In a recent entry in the National Association of Realtor’s® Economist Commentaries, Ken Fears, NAR’s Director of Regional Economics and Housing Finance, says that with the recent changes in FHA’s insurance premiums it is worth reviewing the agency’s impact on the market. First, he says, unit volume as above is only one way to measure FHA’s market share. It can be viewed as a share of:

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Q4 Home Price Gains Outpace Inflation -FHFA

Q4 Home Price Gains Outpace Inflation -FHFA

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Thursday, February 26, 2015 10:12 AM

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said today that home prices in the fourth quarter of 2014 were up 1.4 percent compared to the previous quarter and 4.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2013. The fourth quarter was the fourteenth consecutive one in which the agency’s purchase only House Price Index (HPI) increased on a seasonally adjusted basis from the prior quarter.

The monthly HPI for December, also reported today, was up 0.8 percent from November. This measure has increased for 23 of the last 24 months with the single decreased registered in November 2013

FHFA’s index is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. An expanded data index using transaction information from county recorders’ offices and the FHA was up 1.3 percent quarter-over-quarter and was 6.0 percent higher than in the fourth quarter of 2013.

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Mergers, Acquisitions, and Production Shifts; Upcoming Events and Training

Mergers, Acquisitions, and Production Shifts; Upcoming Events and Training

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Thursday, February 26, 2015 7:56 AM

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Here in North Dakota, at -9 degrees this morning, appraising properties is a walk in the park, right? What about for appraisers in the Lake Erie area where there’s a land-yacht? And then we have this little tax snafu where property taxes weren’t paid on half the house. You just can’t make this stuff up! There are plenty of mortgage & bank moves out there you can’t make up either, with a list below of news from PHH, Chase, FBC, Bank of America, Stifel, and others.

What events & training are there of note coming up?

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MBS MID-DAY: Reprice Risk Mostly Dry as Bonds Cope with Post-Data Weakness

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MBS MID-DAY: Reprice Risk Mostly Dry as Bonds Cope with Post-Data Weakness

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Thursday, February 26, 2015 11:41 AM

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The day began on a strong note with US bond markets led higher in price by an even stronger overnight move in Germany. Following the mornings’ economic data, MBS and Treasuries fell back into just slightly negative territory.

The last update on MBS Live noted that reprice risk had dried up. That’s still true as we head toward the noon hour, but only “mostly” true (in the same way Prince Westley was only “mostly dead” in the Princess Bride).

Fannie 3.0s are down 2 on the day with some lenders looking at 3/32nds of weakness since morning rate sheet print times. This is…

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MBS Day Ahead: After Standing 8-Count, Will Bonds Come Out Swinging?

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MBS Day Ahead: After Standing 8-Count, Will Bonds Come Out Swinging?

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Thursday, February 26, 2015 7:34 AM

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Domestic bond markets had been getting pummeled for exactly 3 weeks before getting a break on Tuesday. Then yesterday, they confirmed they’re not going to go down without a fight. The question now becomes ‘how hard will they fight back?

In order to answer this, we first have to understand what they’re fighting against. As I laid out yesterday, while Yellen and NFP have mattered greatly in the short term, the biggest factor in the bigger picture has been Europe. Specifically, US bond markets would be justifiably concerned about the possibility that Europe…

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MBS RECAP: Extraordinarily Flat Day, Which is Awesome Right Now

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MBS RECAP: Extraordinarily Flat Day, Which is Awesome Right Now

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, February 25, 2015 5:44 PM

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There are few situations that warrant more happiness or relief over what turned out to be a merely flat trading session in bond markets. Reason being: it helps legitimize and confirm yesterday’s more determined movement. Looking at this in terms of 10yr yields, we’d been bouncing back from the 2.15 technical level rather timidly until yesterday and had been completely unable to break through the 2.04 technical barrier. Yesterday not only did the trick, but 10yr yields gave 2.04 a nice courtesy tap on the way down, as if to confirm the technical significance. There …

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Daily Newsletter: Mortgage Rates Finally Feeling the Love; NE Drags Down Home Sales; Housing Indicator Stabilizes, but Oil States at Risk

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30 Year Fixed
3.77% -0.02
15 Year Fixed
3.07% -0.01
10YR Treasury
1.97% -0.0104
FNMA 30YR 3.5
104.78 0.00
FNMA 15YR 2.5
104.64 +0.03
View Today’s Rates
Wednesday February 25, 2015
Mortgage Rate Watch – 4:04PM
Mortgage Rates Finally Feeling the Love
Mortgage rates had a bad Valentines Day. It’s not that anything happened on that Saturday. Indeed, lenders weren’t even open. It’s just that things changed significantly by the time …
MND NewsWire – 10:49AM
Northeast Drags Down New Home Sales
Sales of newly constructed single-family homes dipped only slightly in January from December levels. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Developing said today …
MND NewsWire – 2:43PM
Housing Indicator Continues to Stabilize; Energy States at Risk
Freddie Mac said on Wednesday that its Multi-Indicator Market Index (MiMi) still shows that, at the national level, housing is continuing to stabilize . Thirty-eight of the 50 states …
MND NewsWire – 2:40PM
Black Knight Notes Home Price Decline
The Home Price Index (HPI) report issued this week by Black Knight Financial Services shows the December national index at $241,000, a -0.1 percent change from November. The HPI has …

Latest Video


Lawmakers accuse Yellen of political bias

Janet Yellen in the hot seat

New home sales better-than-expected

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.77% -0.02
15 Yr FRM 3.07% -0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.50% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.76% -0.04
5/1 Yr ARM 3.11% -0.02

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.47% 1.11 +0.02
30 Yr. Fixed 4.33% 1.33 -0.01
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 3.93% 0.35 +0.09
15 Yr. Fixed 3.24% 0.35 +0.09
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.92% 0.28 +0.02
30 Yr. FHA 3.73% 0.12 +0.01
5/1 ARM 3.09% 0.47 +0.02
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.76% 0.60 +0.07
15 Yr. Fixed 3.05% 0.60 +0.06
1 Yr. ARM 2.45% 0.40 +0.03
5/1 Yr. ARM 2.97% 0.50 +0.00

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 101.94 +0.06
30YR FNMA 3.5 104.78 0.00
30YR GNMA 3.0 102.69 +0.08
30YR GNMA 3.5 104.83 -0.08
15YR FNMA 3.0 104.64 +0.03
15YR FNMA 2.5 102.45 0.00
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 0.6065% +0.0495
5 YR 1.4543% -0.0016
10 YR 1.9670% -0.0104
30 YR 2.5675% -0.0198
Prices as of: 2/25/2015 4:31PM EST

23623981

This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2015 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
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