MBS RECAP: Only Volatile if You Were Standing Too Close

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MBS RECAP: Only Volatile if You Were Standing Too Close

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, August 31, 2016 5:43 PM

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Bonds responded generally favorably to the available economic data, which included on-target ADP jobs numbers (177 vs 175k forecast) and weaker Chicago PMI (51.5 vs 54.0 forecast). That only helped us in the morning, however. European bond market weakness pulled yields higher into the European close, and month-end volatility at home caused a few more swings by the end of the day.

If you were to only look at today’s bond market movement relative to yesterday’s, things looked downright volatile. 10yr yields began the day above yesterday’s highest yields and within 2 …

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Daily Newsletter: Pending Home Sales Second Highest in 10 Years; Rates Remain Exceptionally Flat

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30 Year Fixed
3.41% +0.00
15 Year Fixed
2.75% +0.00
10YR Treasury
1.57% +0.0069
FNMA 30YR 3.5
105.36 +0.02
FNMA 15YR 2.5
104.67 -0.03
View Today’s Rates
Wednesday August 31, 2016
MND NewsWire – 10:47AM
Pending Home Sales Second Highest in 10 Years
Despite some predictions that pending home sales would fall in July, they actually rose modestly to reach their second highest level in over a decade. The National Association of Realtors® …
Mortgage Rate Watch – 5:13PM
Mortgage Rates Exceptionally Flat
Mortgage Rates were unchanged today, ending a month without much movement in general. In fact, the most prevalently quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate on top tier scenarios remained …
MND NewsWire – 8:16AM
Mortgage Apps Eke Out Small Gain
The volume of applications increased slightly during the week ended August 26 as mortgage rates made minor changes and moved in both directions. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA …
Pipeline Press – 10:23AM
Deep Dive on FHFA’s Home Price Figures; Wells on Investing With Imperfect Info
What does $24 million buy you in Oregon ? Just find 24 people to pony up a million each. Some economists love to look at the FHFA’s housing statistics. Newly minted math and statistics …

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.41% +0.00
15 Yr FRM 2.75% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.25% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.51% +0.00
5/1 Yr ARM 2.84% +0.00

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.37% 1.26 -0.14
30 Yr. Fixed 3.95% 1.30 -0.16
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 3.82% 0.34 -0.05
15 Yr. Fixed 3.06% 0.33 -0.07
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.74% 0.31 -0.05
30 Yr. FHA 3.64% 0.25 -0.05
5/1 ARM 2.93% 0.22 +0.02
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.43% 0.60 +0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 2.74% 0.50 +0.00
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 2.75% 0.40 -0.01

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 103.73 +0.02
30YR FNMA 3.5 105.36 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.0 104.67 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.5 106.19 +0.03
15YR FNMA 3.0 104.67 -0.03
15YR FNMA 2.5 103.30 -0.02
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 0.8053% +0.0040
5 YR 1.1928% +0.0129
10 YR 1.5749% +0.0069
30 YR 2.2270% -0.0050
Prices as of: 8/31/2016 4:31PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2016 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Exceptionally Flat

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
3.41% +0.00
15 Year Fixed
2.75% +0.00
10YR Treasury
1.57% +0.0069
FNMA 30YR 3.5
105.36 +0.02
FNMA 15YR 2.5
104.67 -0.03
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Exceptionally Flat
August 31, 2016
Mortgage Rates were unchanged today, ending a month without much movement in general. In fact, the most prevalently quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate on top tier scenarios remained in a range of 3.375-3.5% for more than 45 days! That’s the sort of absence of volatility that greatly decreases the need to stress out about locking or floating your rate, but as always, the question is whether or not that will continue to be the case.

Near-term volatility in rates can come from the economic data over the next two days. Markets are anxious to see if it will support the Fed’s case for hiking rates in the upcoming meeting. In general, the stronger the economic data, the greater the probability that the Fed hikes. Although the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, if the probability of a hike increases, mortgage rates would likely increase as well.

Loan Originator Perspectives

Rates remain in a tight range. Although there are further rumblings from our European neighbors and continued bouncing in equities, if you have the opportunity to lock the rate of a lifetime, why not?? –Robert Van Gilder NMLS 815819,263112

Rates were (you guessed it) flat again today, as traders prepared for Friday’s August’s NFP report. We’re locked in one of the tightest ranges I can remember, which makes it easier for secondary desks to price aggressively, but the bigger questions are when the range breaks, and in which direction. It wouldn’t surprise me if markets shrug off NFP, but in the event they don’t, I don’t want to be floating and miss our current phenomenal pricing. My September pipeline is locked, most of October’s isn’t, since those clients have longer to recover any knee jerk reactions to Friday’s numbers. –Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Today’s Best-Execution Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 3.375 – 3.5%
  • FHA/VA – 3.0 – 3.25%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 2.75%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 2.75 – 3.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • In the biggest of pictures, “global growth concerns” remain the driving force behind the long-term trend toward lower rates
  • Amid that trend, periodic corrections toward higher rates can and will happen. These can happen for no apparent reason, or they can be brought on by changes in expectations surrounding central bank policy at home and abroad, as well as geopolitical and systemic risks
  • Time horizon and risk tolerance are 2 variables to consider when it comes to locking. If you have plenty of time and don’t mind losing some ground, set a limit as to how much higher rates could go before you’d lock to avoid further losses, and then float in the hopes of never seeing that limit.
  • In the shorter-term, it’s always good to look for lock opportunities after rates have been moving lower or sideways repeatedly, especially if they’ve since begun to move back up in any sort of consistent way.
  • As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we’ve termedbest-execution(that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also ‘bang-for-the-buck.’ Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points–though this can vary–and tends to predict Freddie Mac’s weekly survey with high accuracy. It’s safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie’s once-a-week polling method).

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
31?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
31?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.41% +0.00
15 Yr FRM 2.75% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.25% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.51% +0.00
5/1 Yr ARM 2.84% +0.00

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.37% 1.26 -0.14
30 Yr. Fixed 3.95% 1.30 -0.16
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 3.82% 0.34 -0.05
15 Yr. Fixed 3.06% 0.33 -0.07
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.74% 0.31 -0.05
30 Yr. FHA 3.64% 0.25 -0.05
5/1 ARM 2.93% 0.22 +0.02
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.43% 0.60 +0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 2.74% 0.50 +0.00
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 2.75% 0.40 -0.01

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 103.73 +0.02
30YR FNMA 3.5 105.36 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.0 104.67 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.5 106.19 +0.03
15YR FNMA 3.0 104.67 -0.03
15YR FNMA 2.5 103.30 -0.02
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 0.8053% +0.0040
5 YR 1.1928% +0.0129
10 YR 1.5749% +0.0069
30 YR 2.2270% -0.0050
Prices as of: 8/31/2016 4:31PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2016 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

Pending Home Sales Second Highest in 10 Years

Pending Home Sales Second Highest in 10 Years

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, August 31, 2016 10:41 AM

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Despite some predictions that pending home sales would fall in July, they actually rose modestly to reach their second highest level in over a decade. The National Association of Realtors® reported that its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) was up 1.3 percent to 111.3 from a downwardly revised (from 111.0) 109.9 in June and was up 1.4 percent compared to July 2015.

The index had reached its highest level since February 2006 this past April when it hit 115.0. The July index was second only to that number. NAR pronounced the increase in purchase contracts as broad-based; only the Midwest failed to improve on its June numbers.

Analysts surveyed by Econoday had projected the index could be in the range of a 1.8 percent decline to a 1.4 percent gain. The consensus was a positive move of 0.6 percent.

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Deep Dive on FHFA’s Home Price Figures; Wells on Investing With Imperfect Info

Deep Dive on FHFA’s Home Price Figures; Wells on Investing With Imperfect Info

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Wednesday, August 31, 2016 8:43 AM

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What does $24 million buy you in Oregon? Just find 24 people to pony up a million each.

Some economists love to look at the FHFA’s housing statistics. Newly minted math and statistics majors, and summer interns, employed by the FHFA to put them together, also love them. These numbers, of course, only reside in the world of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, nut are useful to a limited degree, especially when viewed in context and taken over several months. Things look pretty good, and we certainly see a different picture than a few short years ago when the trend was negative.

As a reminder, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) sends out its House Price Index (HPI), and one can take a gander at it monthly or quarterly – to smooth out those fluctuations. The HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Not only that, but it measures average price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same properties since 1975.

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MBS Day Ahead: Month-End Bond Buying Could Be A Trap

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MBS Day Ahead: Month-End Bond Buying Could Be A Trap

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, August 31, 2016 9:35 AM

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Who remembers asymptotes from high school? Those are the curved lines that gradually approach a certain level–getting closer and closer, but never reaching it. Sometimes in bond markets, instead of the normal triangular consolidations (i.e. linear trends of “higher lows” and “lower highs” converging), we instead have a static level on one side and an asymptotic line on the other side.

A picture makes it easier to see, and it just so happens to apply to the current environment where 10yr yields have had a ceiling around 1.60 (with the brief exception of the Jackson…

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Mortgage Apps Eke Out Small Gain

Mortgage Apps Eke Out Small Gain

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, August 31, 2016 6:16 AM

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The volume of applications increased slightly during the week ended August 26 as mortgage rates made minor changes and moved in both directions. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that its Market Composite Index, a measure of application activity, was 2.8 percent higher on a seasonally adjusted basis than during the week ended August 19, and rose 2.0 percent unadjusted.

After two weeks of decreasing volume the Refinancing Index rose 4.0 percent. The share of applications for refinancing increased from 62.4 percent the prior week to 63.5 percent. It was the fourth straight week that the share of refinancing increased.

The Purchase Index increased 1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier but fell by 1 percent when unadjusted. Purchasing applications were up by 5 percent compared to the same week in 2015.

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