Daily Newsletter: Freddie Says Mortgages To Be Crushed By Rising Rates; Trump’s Treasury Pick Wants to Free GSEs; Pending Sales Win on Technicality; OPEC Deal Hurts Bonds

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30 Year Fixed
4.13% +0.03
15 Year Fixed
3.34% +0.02
10YR Treasury
2.39% +0.0901
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.56 -0.48
FNMA 15YR 2.5
102.72 -0.31
View Today’s Rates
Wednesday November 30, 2016
MND NewsWire – 1:35PM
Mortgage Activity Will Be Crushed By Rising Rates -Freddie Mac
Interest rates are, quite naturally, the focus of Freddie Mac’s November Outlook. The company’s Economic & Housing Research Group looked at the potential impact of the interest …
MND NewsWire – 1:25PM
Will Trump’s New Appointee End GSE Conservatorship?
President-elect Donald J. Trump may have just handed Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae a “get out of jail free” card. Trump has picked Steven Mnuchin to be Secretary of the Treasury. Among …
MND NewsWire – 10:37AM
Pending Home Sales Rise (Sort of) to 4-Month Highs
Pending home Sales eked out a 0.1 percent gain in October. The National Association of Realtors® said its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) barely managed a second straight month …
MBS Commentary – 9:48AM
MBS Day Ahead: Oil Adding Fuel to Bonds’ Inflationary Fire Fears
Yesterday we discussed the positive impact of month-end bond buying . The only problem with month-end buying that occurs on the day before month-end is that it can leave an imbalance …

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Mnuchin: Dodd-Frank is way too complicated

Mnuchin: Interest rates to stay relatively low for a few years

October pending home sales up 0.1%

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.13% +0.03
15 Yr FRM 3.34% +0.02
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.80% +0.05
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.19% +0.02
5/1 Yr ARM 3.02% +0.02

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.05% 1.21 -0.03
30 Yr. Fixed 3.74% 1.37 -0.06
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 3.66% 0.33 -0.04
15 Yr. Fixed 2.95% 0.38 -0.04
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.64% 0.28 -0.05
30 Yr. FHA 3.52% 0.21 -0.04
5/1 ARM 2.92% 0.40 -0.07
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.94% 0.50 +0.37
15 Yr. Fixed 3.14% 0.50 +0.26
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.07% 0.40 +0.19

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 99.45 -0.61
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.56 -0.48
30YR GNMA 3.0 101.40 -0.26
30YR GNMA 3.5 104.03 -0.33
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.72 -0.31
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.30 -0.38
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 1.1230% +0.0280
5 YR 1.8486% +0.0691
10 YR 2.3882% +0.0901
30 YR 3.0418% +0.0911
Prices as of: 11/30/2016 4:30PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2016 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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MBS RECAP: OPEC Deal Blasts Bonds

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MBS RECAP: OPEC Deal Blasts Bonds

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, November 30, 2016 5:18 PM

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Today brought the long-awaited and hotly-anticipated conclusion of a deal among OPEC countries to limit oil production. Constricted supply has one intention: higher prices. For now, petroleum still fuels trade for the foreseeable future. So a widespread agreement to limit supply (read: raise prices) among OPEC countries has an immediate, quantitative impact on prices. But perhaps more insidiously, it has long-term, qualitative implications for future inflation pressures.

This surely wouldn’t have been as big a deal were it not for the fact that markets are…

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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Moderately Higher

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30 Year Fixed
4.13% +0.03
15 Year Fixed
3.34% +0.02
10YR Treasury
2.39% +0.0901
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.56 -0.48
FNMA 15YR 2.5
102.72 -0.31
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Moderately Higher
November 30, 2016
Mortgage rates rose moderately today, bringing them roughly back in line with Monday’s levels. For the record, that leaves us in slightly better shape than last week, which saw the highest rates in more than a year. Today’s bond market weakness was driven primarily by the much-anticipated OPEC deal. What is the OPEC deal and why is it impacting mortgage rates?

The OPEC deal essentially serves as an agreement among OPEC countries to limit oil production. The goal is to push oil prices higher. Higher oil prices imply higher inflation, and inflation is an enemy to low interest rates. With this logic, it would be easy to assume that rates would move higher any time oil prices moved higher, but that’s definitely not the case. Today’s OPEC deal did more damage by influencing long-term inflation fears. After all, if OPEC countries are willing to come to agreements like this, bond markets (which drive mortgage rates) need to account for the threat of general upward pressure on prices (due to higher fuel costs), all other things being equal.

This inflation narrative might not have been as hot a topic were it not for the fact that longer-term inflation fears are already in the spotlight due to the Trump administration’s expected policy path. In other words, markets are already feeling defensive about inflation, so anything that adds to the risk has the power to move markets more than it otherwise might.

Given the amount of weakness in bond markets, lenders didn’t move mortgage rates too terribly much. Yes, today’s rates are indeed higher than yesterday’s, but not by as much as the market movement suggests. Most lenders managed to hang on to the 4.0-4.125% range on top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate quotes. In general, locking has been the only safe bet since the election, but risk takers can continue to use last week’s highs as a stop-loss (i.e. if rates make it back to those highs, it’s your cue to lock and avoid further losses).

Loan Originator Perspective

The float boat is quickly sinking. Economic data was not mortgage rate friendly and quickly sent rates testing the recent highs. The momentum has certainly been against us and today is just another reminder. Tomorrow and Friday bring more key economic data and certainly can push rates above our recent resistance level of 2.42% on the 10 YR Treasury. All new applications should lock for 45-60 days due to the volatility and the upcoming holiday lag. For loans caught in the Trump-nado, today is a bad sign, it may be time to lock and move on, I will be patient to see if the support level holds into Friday’s employment report. –Gus Floropoulos, VP, The Federal Savings Bank

Today’s Best-Execution Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.125%
  • FHA/VA – 3.75-4.0%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.375%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 2.75 – 3.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Rates had been trending higher since hitting all-time lows in early July, and exploded higher following the presidential election
  • Some investors are increasingly worried/convinced that the decades-long trend toward lower rates has been permanently reversed, but such a conclusion would require YEARS to truly confirm
  • With the incoming administration’s policies driving a large portion of upward rate momentum, mortgage rates will be hard-pressed to make significant improvements until after Trump takes office. Rates can move for other reasons, but it would take something big and unexpected for rates to move appreciably lower.
  • We’d need to see a sustained push back toward lower rates (something that lasts more than 3 days) before anything less than a cautious, lock-biased approach makes sense for all but the most risk-tolerant borrowers.
  • As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we’ve termedbest-execution(that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also ‘bang-for-the-buck.’ Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points–though this can vary–and tends to predict Freddie Mac’s weekly survey with high accuracy. It’s safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie’s once-a-week polling method).

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.13% +0.03
15 Yr FRM 3.34% +0.02
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.80% +0.05
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.19% +0.02
5/1 Yr ARM 3.02% +0.02

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.05% 1.21 -0.03
30 Yr. Fixed 3.74% 1.37 -0.06
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 3.66% 0.33 -0.04
15 Yr. Fixed 2.95% 0.38 -0.04
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.64% 0.28 -0.05
30 Yr. FHA 3.52% 0.21 -0.04
5/1 ARM 2.92% 0.40 -0.07
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.94% 0.50 +0.37
15 Yr. Fixed 3.14% 0.50 +0.26
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.07% 0.40 +0.19

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 99.45 -0.61
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.56 -0.48
30YR GNMA 3.0 101.40 -0.26
30YR GNMA 3.5 104.03 -0.33
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.72 -0.31
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.30 -0.38
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 1.1230% +0.0280
5 YR 1.8486% +0.0691
10 YR 2.3882% +0.0901
30 YR 3.0418% +0.0911
Prices as of: 11/30/2016 4:30PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2016 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

Mortgage Activity Will Be Crushed By Rising Rates -Freddie Mac

Mortgage Activity Will Be Crushed By Rising Rates -Freddie Mac

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, November 30, 2016 11:17 AM

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Interest rates are, quite naturally, the focus of Freddie Mac’s November Outlook. The company’s Economic & Housing Research Group looked at the potential impact of the interest rate surge since the election and what it called “the near certainty” that the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise the fed funds rate at its December meeting.

Over two weeks post-election the 10 -year Treasury note surged by over 50 basis points, closing at 2.35 percent on November 18. The increase was driven by higher than expected inflation and anticipation of the FOMC move -the probability of which the futures market was putting at 92 percent.

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Will Trump’s New Appointee End GSE Conservatorship?

Will Trump’s New Appointee End GSE Conservatorship?

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, November 30, 2016 12:47 PM

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President-elect Donald J. Trump may have just handed Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae a “get out of jail free” card.

Trump has picked Steven Mnuchin to be Secretary of the Treasury. Among his first pronouncements to the press was that the two government sponsored enterprises (GSEs), which have been in federal conservatorship since 2008, should no longer be owned by the government.

Stock in the two companies immediately soared (although that is a relative term for assets that have been virtually worthless for over eight years). Within hours Fannie Mae’s stock rose 32 percent and Freddie Mac’s by 31 percent to $4.04 and $3.99 respectively.

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Pending Home Sales Rise (Sort of) to 4-Month Highs

Pending Home Sales Rise (Sort of) to 4-Month Highs

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, November 30, 2016 10:30 AM

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Pending home Sales eked out a 0.1 percent gain in October. The National Association of Realtors® said its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) barely managed a second straight month of gains, rising to 110.0 from a downwardly revised 109.9 in September (the previous reading was 110.0, which would have made today’s reading “unchanged,” officially). Even though NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun called the increase “minuscule,” it still pushed the index to its highest level since July. The index was also 1.8 percent higher than In October 2015 when it stood at 108.1.

The PHSI is a forward-looking indicator based on contracts for home purchases. Those signed contracts are generally expected to become closed transactions within two months.

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CFPB Appraisal News; Non-Agency MBS Update

CFPB Appraisal News; Non-Agency MBS Update

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Wednesday, November 30, 2016 8:29 AM

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Underwriters’ hands are tied in using income from something the Federal Government considers illegal. For example, Washington State had nearly $212 million in marijuana sales in the second quarter of 2016, approaching the $249 million sold in alcoholic spirits. Some argue that someone in the weed business with an 800 FICO is a better credit risk than someone in any occupation with a 580 FICO score for a taxpayer-supported mortgage program like FHA.

I love it when the press sneers at making money. One financial reporter wrote, “Steven Mnuchin, the frontrunner for Treasury secretary in the Trump administration, made millions turning around a lender that collapsed after the subprime mortgage frenzy…” What’s bad, making millions? Turning around a company? Being involved, even remotely, in the industry after “the subprime frenzy?”

Plenty of people expect the regulatory environment to change under the new Administration. Plenty of experienced lenders, however, know that a certain amount of regulation was, and is, called for – the trick is in creating make-sense rules and appropriately enforcing them. And at the center of this is the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, having garnered plenty of legal attention with the recent PHH vs. CFPB case.

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