MBS RECAP: Weaker Econ Data and Month-End Trading Fuel Token Rally

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MBS RECAP: Weaker Econ Data and Month-End Trading Fuel Token Rally

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Tuesday, January 31, 2017 5:01 PM

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Bonds have rallied moderately since last Thursday. Incidentally, that’s also when stocks topped out after their run to all-time highs (for most indices). Indeed, stocks and bonds have been a bit more correlated than normal recently as financial markets wait to see where the chips fall for 2017.

Said chips include things like fiscal policy, monetary policy, economic data, and general trading momentum. It will take time for the fiscal and monetary policy pictures to become clearer. Econ data and tradeflows, on the other hand, provide a constant stream of…

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Daily Newsletter: Rates Just a Bit Lower; Home Price Gains Steady at 5-6%; Housing and Mortgage Market Charts

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30 Year Fixed
4.21% -0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.41% -0.01
10YR Treasury
2.46% -0.0276
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.09 +0.09
FNMA 15YR 2.5
102.51 +0.06
View Today’s Rates
Tuesday January 31, 2017
Mortgage Rate Watch – 3:52PM
Mortgage Rates Just a Bit Lower as Data Falls Short
Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today, bringing them to their best levels in exactly 1 week. Most borrowers will see little-to-no difference between yesterday and today’s loan …
MND NewsWire – 10:18AM
Status Quo: 5-6% Annual Home Price Gains
The headline of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices press release for the last three months has been exactly the same: NATIONAL INDEX HITS NEW PEAK AS HOME PRICE GAINS CONTINUE …
MND NewsWire – 3:51PM
Selections From Urban Institute’s Housing Chartbook
The Urban Institute releases a regular report, Housing Finance at a Glance , a “chartbook” loaded with charts and commentary on mortgage activity. The current edition is primarily for …
Pipeline Press – 9:42AM
Upcoming Events and Training; Walter and Reverse Mortgages
As the old adage goes, “Women spend more time wondering what men are thinking than men spend thinking.” But certainly women spend a good deal of time thinking about other …

Latest Video


Fed survey: 98% say fed will hold rates this week

Closing Bell Exchange: Uncertainty the word of the day

Euro zone GDP growth rises 0.5%

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.21% -0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.41% -0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.75% -0.05
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.33% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.01% -0.02

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.06% 1.30 +0.03
30 Yr. Fixed 3.76% 1.38 +0.03
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.41% 0.38 +0.13
15 Yr. Fixed 3.64% 0.34 +0.12
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.36% 0.26 +0.07
30 Yr. FHA 4.15% 0.29 +0.13
5/1 ARM 3.45% 0.26 +0.17
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.19% 0.40 +0.10
15 Yr. Fixed 3.40% 0.40 +0.06
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.20% 0.40 -0.01

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 98.84 +0.13
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.09 +0.09
30YR GNMA 3.0 100.59 +0.05
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.58 +0.19
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.51 +0.06
15YR FNMA 2.5 99.92 +0.08
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 1.2124% -0.0038
5 YR 1.9211% -0.0280
10 YR 2.4624% -0.0276
30 YR 3.0670% -0.0124
Prices as of: 1/31/2017 4:31PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2017 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Just a Bit Lower

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.21% -0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.41% -0.01
10YR Treasury
2.46% -0.0276
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.09 +0.09
FNMA 15YR 2.5
102.51 +0.06
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Just a Bit Lower
January 31, 2017
Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today, bringing them to their best levels in exactly 1 week. Most borrowers will see little-to-no difference between yesterday and today’s loan quotes with the exception, perhaps, of a modest reduction in upfront costs. That means 4.25% remains intact as the most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed rate on top tier scenarios.

Bond markets (and thus, rates) responded favorably today to a series of weaker economic reports. In general, weaker economic data tends to help bonds and hurt stocks. Some of the positivity was also motivated by the calendar as certain traders are required to hold a certain mix of bonds by the end of any given month. In other words, some investors were buying bonds because they wanted to and other were buying because they had to.

From here, the potential for volatility increases as data and events get even more serious through the end of the week. There are several important reports tomorrow as well as an updated policy statement from the Fed. Although there’s essentially no chance that the Fed will hike rates at this meeting, investors will nonetheless look for clues about the Fed’s thinking based on subtle changes in the text of the statement.


Loan Originator Perspective

Nice little rally this morning is giving us a chance in breaking into the lower part of the range. We’ve recently been teased with moves like today to only watch it all disappear in the next day or so. With some important data rolling out tomorrow and a key Fed announcement later in the day, we can hope for the best, but remain defensive in protecting what’s available to us now. There is a possibility that tomorrow’s data, the Fed announcement, followed by Fridays employment report to create enough momentum to get us to a lower level on rates, but just as likely the opposite may occur. Take what you can get and keep moving forward. Lock em up. –Gus Floropoulos, VP, The Federal Savings Bank

If you’ve been listen to me lately, you’re welcome. We broke 2.45 today and are holding just under at 2.44. If you did float then you can probably afford to take a bit more risk since you’re ahead of the game. 2.45 is still the threshold I’m watching and I would probably be a locker if we moved over that number. More data on tap for tomorrow, if it comes in as weak as today’s then rates should improve. I’m going to ride this wave a bit longer I think. –Jason B. Anker, Vice President- Loan Officer at Salem Five

Bonds rallied moderately today, but still remained within our recent ranges. This market seems reluctant to commit to either higher/lower rates at this point. Floating might net risk-tolerant borrowers some pricing gains, the only caveat is that losses may be just as likely. My pipeline is virtually all locked, I need to see more of a trend towards lower rates before I sail my float boat. –Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Today’s Best-Execution Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.25%
  • FHA/VA – 3.75%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.375%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 2.75 – 3.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Rates had been trending higher since hitting all-time lows in early July, and exploded higher following the presidential election
  • Some investors are increasingly worried/convinced that the decades-long trend toward lower rates has been permanently reversed, but such a conclusion would require YEARS to truly confirm
  • With the incoming administration’s policies driving a large portion of upward rate momentum, mortgage rates will be hard-pressed to return to pre-election levels until well after Trump takes office. Rates can move for other reasons, but it would take something big and unexpected for rates to get back to pre-election levels.
  • We’d need to see a sustained push back toward lower rates (something that lasts more than 3 days) before anything less than a cautious, lock-biased approach makes sense for all but the most risk-tolerant borrowers.
  • As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we’ve termedbest-execution(that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also ‘bang-for-the-buck.’ Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points–though this can vary–and tends to predict Freddie Mac’s weekly survey with high accuracy. It’s safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie’s once-a-week polling method).

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
31?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
31?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.21% -0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.41% -0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.75% -0.05
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.33% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.01% -0.02

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.06% 1.30 +0.03
30 Yr. Fixed 3.76% 1.38 +0.03
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.41% 0.38 +0.13
15 Yr. Fixed 3.64% 0.34 +0.12
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.36% 0.26 +0.07
30 Yr. FHA 4.15% 0.29 +0.13
5/1 ARM 3.45% 0.26 +0.17
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.19% 0.40 +0.10
15 Yr. Fixed 3.40% 0.40 +0.06
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.20% 0.40 -0.01

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 98.84 +0.13
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.09 +0.09
30YR GNMA 3.0 100.59 +0.05
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.58 +0.19
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.51 +0.06
15YR FNMA 2.5 99.92 +0.08
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 1.2124% -0.0038
5 YR 1.9211% -0.0280
10 YR 2.4624% -0.0276
30 YR 3.0670% -0.0124
Prices as of: 1/31/2017 4:31PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2017 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

Selections From Urban Institute’s Housing Chartbook

Selections From Urban Institute’s Housing Chartbook

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Friday, January 27, 2017 12:35 PM

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The Urban Institute releases a regular report, Housing Finance at a Glance, a “chartbook” loaded with charts and commentary on mortgage activity. The current edition is primarily for the period ending with the third quarter of 2016. Much of the material, credit access, residential construction data, home prices indices, etc., has been covered by MND from original sources, but we have cherry-picked a few items that may have otherwise escaped notice.

Overview of Housing and Mortgage Market Value

The total value of the housing market, as reported by the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds report has been steadily increasing since 2012, driven by growing household equity. In the third quarter of 2016 total debt and mortgages rose to 10.2 trillion and household equity grew to 13.7 trillion, a total of $23.9 trillion.

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Status Quo: 5-6% Annual Home Price Gains

Status Quo: 5-6% Annual Home Price Gains

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Tuesday, January 31, 2017 9:47 AM

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The headline of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices press release for the last three months has been exactly the same: NATIONAL INDEX HITS NEW PEAK AS HOME PRICE GAINS CONTINUE. The actual numbers haven’t changed much either.

The newest results, released on Tuesday, show the National Index, which covers the nine U.S. Census divisions, up 5.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November. The October to October gain was revised to 5.5 percent from the 5.6 percent originally reported. On a month-over-month basis the National Index rose 0.2 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis and 0.8 percent after adjustment.

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Upcoming Events and Training; Walter and Reverse Mortgages

Upcoming Events and Training; Walter and Reverse Mortgages

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Tuesday, January 31, 2017 8:13 AM

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As the old adage goes, “Women spend more time wondering what men are thinking than men spend thinking.” But certainly women spend a good deal of time thinking about other things, like…thinking about the global economy. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen says blockchain “could make a big difference to the way in which transactions are cleared and settled in the global economy” and notes the central bank is exploring possible use of the technology. “We are looking at it in terms of its promise in some of the technologies that we use ourselves,” Yellen said. And if there’s an industry that cries out for the efficiencies and data integrity that blockchain tech promises, it’s undoubtedly the US residential mortgage biz, also heading down the blockchain path.

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Battle New Micro Range, Hoping for Month-End Help

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Battle New Micro Range, Hoping for Month-End Help

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Tuesday, January 31, 2017 8:39 AM

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Yesterday was a bit of a puzzler for bond markets. Volumes were decent, but movement was contained in a very narrow range (seen in the chart below). On one hand, that could be seen as a victory considering bond markets absorbed a huge corporate deal from Microsoft ($17 bln) without breaking through yield ceilings. On the other hand, bonds ignored the big losses in stocks, refusing to break through the floor of the range.

2017-1-31 day ahead

As you can see in the chart, the range was briefly broken early in today’s overnight session, it has since rematerialized. If yields break…

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