MBS RECAP: Post-GDP Rally Keeps Same Range Intact

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MBS RECAP: Post-GDP Rally Keeps Same Range Intact

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, July 28, 2017 6:30 PM

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Overnight weakness almost ruined it, but 10yr yields just barely held inside the necessary levels to claim their third straight “inside day.” In other words, the entire trading range of the past 3 days has fallen inside Tuesday’s trading range. While we continue to err on the higher side of that range, today saw a modest move in the right direction after the GDP data came out.

It wasn’t the GDP headline that did the trick (after all, that was as-expected at +2.6 vs +2.6), but rather the inflation-related internal components as outlined in this update.

Early afternoon…

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Weekly Rate Report: Mortgage Rates Yawn at Fed Announcement

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weeklyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.04% +0.00
15 Year Fixed
3.33% +0.00
10YR Treasury
2.29% -0.0180
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.92 +0.14
FNMA 15YR 2.5
102.84 +0.08
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Yawn at Fed Announcement
July 28, 2017
Market Summary
Mortgage rates were slightly higher on the week with most of the movement happening on Tuesday AND without any overt motivation. That’s interesting considering the week’s biggest calendar event was Wednesday’s Fed Announcement.

Normally, I’d say something like “rates braced for impact ahead of the Fed Announcement,” but it just wasn’t the case. No one expected any major revelations from the Fed, nor were there any reasons for pre-Fed expectations to change on Tuesday. It was just the esoteric trading considerations that occasionally move markets amid an absence of compelling events and data.

Bond markets (which drive rates) improved after the Fed, but mortgage lenders were slow to pass along those improvements. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday’s rates were all very similar, and the week’s average rate was right in the middle of July’s range.

Next week brings important inflation data as well as the big jobs report on Friday–events that have more “surprise” potential than the Fed Announcement did this week.

Matt Graham, Mortgage News Daily

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
28?w=360
Week in Review
Rates shown below are based on the 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

Beginning Average: 4.00%
Ending Average: 4.04%
Weekly Change: +0.04%
Yearly Change: +0.58%

Friday, July 21, 2017 : 4.00% (-0.03%)
Mortgage rates moved lower today, setting yet another new low for the month of July. For the past 2 weeks, rates have been pushing back against a fairly abrupt spike that took place heading into the month. Concerns over the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) bond buying plans sparked the move higher, but those concerns were officially put to rest as of yesterday.

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Lowest in July”

Monday, July 24, 2017 : 4.00% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates held steady today, which leaves them in line with the lowest levels in July. In underlying bond markets (bond movement directly impacts lenders’ rate offerings), it was an exceptionally quiet day–especially for mortgage-related bonds.

More detail: “Rates Begin Week Unchanged at July's Lows”

Tuesday, July 25, 2017 : 4.06% (+0.06%)
Mortgage rates moved abruptly highertoday, erasing the improvement seen last week. An entire week’s worth of movement may or may not be worth stressing out about depending on your perspective. On one hand, we’re only talking about a change of roughly 0.06% in terms of the “effective rate” on the average 30yr fixed loan. That’ll cost you about $7/month on a $200k loan.

On the other hand, last week was the best in more than 2 months. While erasing those gains might not be dramatic in terms of outright financial impact, it could signal a shift in the overall trend.

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Spike, Erasing Last Week's Gains”

Wednesday, July 26, 2017 : 4.05% (-0.01%)
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower today, despite fairly substantial movement in underlying bond markets. Bond prices ultimately do more to inform mortgage rates than anything else. Prices moved higher today by an amount that would typically result in effective rates falling 0.03-0.05% depending on the lender. But as it stands, the average lender is only 0.01% lower than yesterday’s latest offerings.

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Steady to Slightly Lower After Fed”

Thursday, July 27, 2017 : 4.04% (-0.01%)
Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender, but generally held fairly close to yesterday’s levels. All this in spite of bond market weakness (which normally pushes rates higher). The discrepancy can be chalked up to a delay between market movements and lenders’ reactions that’s been increasingly prevalent during the summer months. In other words, lenders still hadn’t fully responded to yesterday’s bond market strength and were thus able to absorb today’s weakness in many cases.

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Not Exactly Lower This Week”

Friday, July 28, 2017 : 4.04% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates were generally flat today, despite improvements in underlying bond markets. Although several lenders did offer price improvements throughout the course of the day, the improvements were generally “token” in nature and did little to alter the sense of paralysis in the bigger picture.

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Starting to Look Paralyzed”

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.04% +0.00
15 Yr FRM 3.33% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.75% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.33% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.17% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.06% 1.30 +0.03
30 Yr. Fixed 3.76% 1.38 +0.03
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.13% 0.32 +0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 3.39% 0.33 -0.01
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.09% 0.20 +0.01
30 Yr. FHA 4.02% 0.41 -0.02
5/1 ARM 3.31% 0.25 +0.05
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.92% 0.50 -0.04
15 Yr. Fixed 3.20% 0.50 -0.03
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.18% 0.50 -0.03

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 100.17 +0.19
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.92 +0.14
30YR GNMA 3.0 101.27 +0.05
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.72 +0.02
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.84 +0.08
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.83 +0.11
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 1.3512% -0.0119
5 YR 1.8339% -0.0181
10 YR 2.2906% -0.0180
30 YR 2.8945% -0.0304
Prices as of: 7/28/2017 5:06PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.

© 2017 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031

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Weekly Newsletter: Unsealed Docs Show GSEs as Cash Cow; Inventory Monster Still Sapping Sales, So Why Aren’t Builders Building?

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30 Year Fixed
4.04% +0.00
15 Year Fixed
3.33% +0.00
10YR Treasury
2.29% -0.0180
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.92 +0.14
FNMA 15YR 2.5
102.84 +0.08
View Today’s Rates
Friday July 28, 2017
MND NewsWire – 7/24
Existing Home Sales Weakness Blamed on Same Old Problem
Existing home sales slipped in June, with the blame again placed on low levels of inventory . The decline in sales, announced on Monday by the National Association of Realtors® …
MND NewsWire – 7/28
Freddie Mac: Why We are Building So Few Houses?
Freddie Mac’s Outlook this month looks at what it calls “the spoiler,” the lean inventory of newly constructed homes for sale. While the situation isn’t quite as dire as with existing …
MND NewsWire – 7/25
Unsealed Court Docs Paint Fannie/Freddie as Congressional Cash Cow
Unless one follows the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac conservatorship drama on a regular basis, it is easy to get lost in the legal weeds. MND has dipped in and out periodically, and it is …
MND NewsWire – 7/25
6th Straight Record High For Home Prices -Case-Shiller
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index hit another new record in May, the sixth consecutive month it did so while the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported another …

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.04% +0.00
15 Yr FRM 3.33% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.75% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.33% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.17% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.06% 1.30 +0.03
30 Yr. Fixed 3.76% 1.38 +0.03
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.13% 0.32 +0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 3.39% 0.33 -0.01
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.09% 0.20 +0.01
30 Yr. FHA 4.02% 0.41 -0.02
5/1 ARM 3.31% 0.25 +0.05
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.92% 0.50 -0.04
15 Yr. Fixed 3.20% 0.50 -0.03
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.18% 0.50 -0.03

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 100.17 +0.19
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.92 +0.14
30YR GNMA 3.0 101.27 +0.05
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.72 +0.02
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.84 +0.08
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.83 +0.11
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 1.3512% -0.0119
5 YR 1.8339% -0.0181
10 YR 2.2906% -0.0180
30 YR 2.8945% -0.0304
Prices as of: 7/28/2017 5:06PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2017 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Starting to Look Paralyzed

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.04% +0.00
15 Year Fixed
3.33% +0.00
10YR Treasury
2.29% -0.0180
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.92 +0.14
FNMA 15YR 2.5
102.84 +0.08
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Starting to Look Paralyzed
July 28, 2017
Mortgage rates were generally flattoday, despite improvements in underlying bond markets. Although several lenders did offer price improvements throughout the course of the day, the improvements were generally “token” in nature and did little to alter the sense of paralysis in the bigger picture. This is the third straight day with essentially no change.

Uncertainty, fear, a lack of inspiration, or some combination of the three all have the ability to paralyze rates from time to time. Uncertainty is leading the charge at the moment. On the one hand, we have global central banks chomping at the bit to drain the proverbial punch bowl (buying fewer bonds and raising rates). On the other hand, those central banks admit they can’t be too aggressive without justification from rising inflation, and inflation seems to be in short supply based on recent economic data.

Next week brings one of the more important inflation reports on Tuesday. If it makes a strong statement for better or worse, it could certainly coax mortgage rates out of their exceptionally flat range seen over the past few days. From there, we’d be waiting for bigger moves to break the generally flat, narrow range that’s been intact over the past few months.

Loan Originator Perspectives

With bonds in the green following weak inflation data and news out of North Korea regarding a missile launch, i think it is worth the risk to float over the weekend. Currently, rate sheets do not reflect the price gains. If you do want to lock today, wait until as late as possible to allow time for lenders to pass along the gains, but with today being a Friday, not so sure we will see them. –Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage

Today’s Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.00%
  • FHA/VA – 3.75%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.375%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 2.75 – 3.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Investors were relatively convinced that the decades-long trend toward lower rates had been permanently reversed after Trump became president, but such a conclusion would require YEARS to truly confirm
  • Instead of continuing higher in 2017, rates instead formed a narrow, sideways range, and held inside until April. Investor perceptions are shifting such that fiscal reforms and other policy developments will need to live up to expectations in order to push rates higher. Geopolitical risks would also need to avoid flaring up (more than they already have)
  • For the first time since the election, we’re in a rate environment where you wouldn’t be crazy not to lock at every little opportunity/improvement. Until/unless it’s broken, the highest rates of early-2017 mark the ceiling, and we’re now waiting to see how much lower we can go from here.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
28?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
28?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.04% +0.00
15 Yr FRM 3.33% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.75% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.33% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.17% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.06% 1.30 +0.03
30 Yr. Fixed 3.76% 1.38 +0.03
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.13% 0.32 +0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 3.39% 0.33 -0.01
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.09% 0.20 +0.01
30 Yr. FHA 4.02% 0.41 -0.02
5/1 ARM 3.31% 0.25 +0.05
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.92% 0.50 -0.04
15 Yr. Fixed 3.20% 0.50 -0.03
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.18% 0.50 -0.03

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 100.17 +0.19
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.92 +0.14
30YR GNMA 3.0 101.27 +0.05
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.72 +0.02
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.84 +0.08
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.83 +0.11
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 1.3512% -0.0119
5 YR 1.8339% -0.0181
10 YR 2.2906% -0.0180
30 YR 2.8945% -0.0304
Prices as of: 7/28/2017 5:06PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2017 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
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Millennial Homeownership Ticked Up in Q2

Millennial Homeownership Ticked Up in Q2

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Friday, July 28, 2017 11:31 AM

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The U.S. homeownership rate ticked up by 0.1 percentage point in the second quarter of 2017, to 63.7 percent. The rate, which trended down for several years prior to the Great Recession and then steadily thereafter, hit what is hoped will be its cyclical low in the second quarter of 2016, 62.9 percent. Prior to the downturn, the rate peaked twice in 2004 at 69.2 percent.

The U.S. Census Bureau says there is some seasonality in the homeownership rate, and when adjusted to reflect that, the most recent number is 63.9 percent, 0.8 percentage points higher than the second quarter of 2016 but not statistically different from the first quarter of this year.

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MBS Day Ahead: Revisiting “Month-End Bond Buying,” Plus a Look at The Current Trend

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MBS Day Ahead: Revisiting "Month-End Bond Buying," Plus a Look at The Current Trend

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, July 28, 2017 10:05 AM

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We often talk about the month-end trading environment as relatively more supportive for bond markets–all other things being equal. Reason for this are explained in THIS PRIMER, but here’s the gist.

Let’s say you’re a money manager who holds a certain amount of bonds in your portfolio. If you do nothing, those bonds will eventually all be paid off (because bonds are repaid over time), and you’ll find yourself with no bonds in your portfolio!

To remedy this, you’ll have to figure out a nominal amount of new bonds to buy every month that keeps your bond…

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Freddie Mac: Why We are Building So Few Houses?

Freddie Mac: Why We are Building So Few Houses?

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Friday, July 28, 2017 9:12 AM

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Freddie Mac’s Outlook this month looks at what it calls “the spoiler,” the lean inventory of newly constructed homes for sale. While the situation isn’t quite as dire as with existing homes, where there is a 4.3-month supply, the new home inventory is just over a 5 month supply and, Freddie Mac’s economists point out, it is much tighter in hot local markets.

So far residential construction is not doing much to fill the gap. Building permits dropped by around 70 percent during the Great Recession and have not yet recovered. In fact, when measured in relation to the population, they are only at about half the level of 2006.

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MBS RECAP: 2nd Straight Day Inside Tuesday’s Range

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MBS RECAP: 2nd Straight Day Inside Tuesday’s Range

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Thursday, July 27, 2017 4:41 PM

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This week continues to be all about Tuesday for bond markets. That was the day with the rather violent, inexplicable sell-off that took yields from 2.25 to 2.34 approximately. Even with econ data, a Treasury auction and the Fed announcement yesterday, yields remained well inside Tuesday’s range. Today was narrower still–especially during domestic hours where 10yr yields held between 2.3 and 2.33% as opposed to yesterday’s 2.28-2.34% domestic session range.

These “inside days,” as they’re called, speak either to a lack of conviction or simply to a consolidation….

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1% Down Payment Impossible After Freddie’s Guideline Change

1% Down Payment Impossible After Freddie’s Guideline Change

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Thursday, July 27, 2017 1:34 PM

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Freddie Mac has announced a change in requirements for its Home Possible Mortgages, including Home Possible Advantage Mortgages. The changes involve lender gifts and grants, and will be effective for loans with settlement dates on and after November 1 unless otherwise noted.

Gifts or grants from the originating lender will be permitted only after the borrower contributes at least 3 percent of the lesser of either the property’s appraised value or its purchase price. The contribution must come either from the borrower’s personal funds or other eligible sources. Previously the amount of the contribution had to be a minimum of 1 percent. Gifts or grants from the Seller must not be funded through the Mortgage transaction, including differential pricing in rate, discount points, or fees for individual loans or across the Home Possible offering.

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J.D. Power Mortgage Servicer Satisfaction Rankings

J.D. Power Mortgage Servicer Satisfaction Rankings

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Thursday, July 27, 2017 12:45 PM

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The mortgage servicing industry, which took a beating in the public mind during the housing crisis, has somewhat rehabilitated its image in recent years. However, a recent survey by J.D. Power indicates the improvements have stalled, and in fact the perception of the servicer brand has declined.

The 2017 U.S. Primary Mortgage Servicer Satisfaction Study shows the downturn is driven primarily by a growing number of customers who perceive their mortgage servicer to be focused more on profit than on their customers. J.D. Power said this could have long-term effects on future business.

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