MBS RECAP: Fed, SOTU Pass Without a Trace

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MBS RECAP: Fed, SOTU Pass Without a Trace

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, January 31, 2018 4:12 PM

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Stay skeptical about easy answers in financial news! Here’s a tremendous example. Much has been made of the stock market being on the edge of a massive correction based on rising interest rates. That’s not necessarily a bad idea, but it is faulty logic to assume it will drive every little move. For instance, after today’s woefully inconsequential Fed announcement, bond yields rose at first before settling back down to unchanged levels for the 3pm CME close. The rate spike was seized by stock commentators in order to explain late day stock weakness. …

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Daily Newsletter: NAR Warns on Pending Sales; Rates Dent Mortgage Apps; Robots and Underwriting; Fed Announcement

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dailynewsletter.png
30 Year Fixed
4.34% -0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.71% +0.00
10YR Treasury
2.72% -0.0036
FNMA 30YR 3.5
100.95 +0.02
FNMA 15YR 2.5
100.48 -0.05
View Today’s Rates
Wednesday January 31, 2018
MND NewsWire – 10:49AM
Although Pending Sales Up, NAR Warns of Tax Law Implications
Pending home sales finished off the year in a more upbeat tune. Although the December gain in sales, reported on Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) was a slim …
MND NewsWire – 8:40AM
Rising Rates Finally Make a Dent in Mortgage Apps
Mortgage activity suffered its first downturn of 2018 last week, breaking a three-week winning streak. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports that applications for both refinancing …
MND NewsWire – 12:47PM
Robots Coming for Your Job? Why Automated Underwriting is Good
Loan applications are increasingly submitted and approved via a cell phone and Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac constantly refer in press releases to their respective automated systems. …
Mortgage Rate Watch – 2:56PM
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Despite Upbeat Fed
Mortgage rates managed to hold steady today, on average (some lenders were slightly better while others were slightly worse) despite a more upbeat economic assessment from The Federal …

Latest Video


Former Wells Fargo CEO: Interest rates have been manipulated by the Fed for too long

Fed leaves rates unchanged

Pending home sales up 0.5% in December

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.34% -0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.71% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.10% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.44% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.35% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.45% 1.22 -0.02
30 Yr. Fixed 4.14% 1.32 -0.01
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.06% 0.38 -0.05
15 Yr. Fixed 3.34% 0.38 -0.02
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.96% 0.20 -0.04
30 Yr. FHA 3.98% 0.35 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.14% 0.31 -0.12
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.15% 0.50 +0.11
15 Yr. Fixed 3.62% 0.50 +0.13
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.52% 0.40 +0.06

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 98.00 -0.02
30YR FNMA 3.5 100.95 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.0 99.08 -0.02
30YR GNMA 3.5 101.77 -0.02
15YR FNMA 3.0 100.48 -0.05
15YR FNMA 2.5 98.48 -0.05
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 2.1486% +0.0203
5 YR 2.5256% +0.0168
10 YR 2.7200% -0.0036
30 YR 2.9470% -0.0285
Prices as of: 1/31/2018 4:11PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2018 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Despite Upbeat Fed

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.34% -0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.71% +0.00
10YR Treasury
2.72% -0.0036
FNMA 30YR 3.5
100.95 +0.02
FNMA 15YR 2.5
100.48 -0.05
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Despite Upbeat Fed
January 31, 2018
Mortgage rates managed to hold steady today, on average (some lenders were slightly better while others were slightly worse) despite a more upbeat economic assessment from The Federal Reserve. The Fed releases a statement on monetary policy 8 times a year. These statements let markets know what the Fed is thinking and how it is planning on approaching policy in the future. They also serve as venues to announce changes in the Fed’s policy rate, the “Fed Funds Rate,” which has a bearing on almost all other rates (including mortgages).

The Fed wasn’t expected to hike rates with today’s statement, and this wasn’t one of the 4 meetings a year where they release updated forecasts. That meant markets were left to glean any actionable info from the verbiage of the statement. Despite some anxiety in the marketplace about the Fed potentially making bigger changes to its guidance, the actual statement was reasonably close to the previous version. The only potential hang-ups were a few tweaks that gave more credit to recent economic strength and improvements in the inflation outlook.

A stronger inflation outlook is bad for bonds and interest rates, all other things being equal. But today’s statement didn’t do any new damage to the already gloomy rate situation. That’s because market participants didn’t hear anything from the Fed that wasn’t already clearly understood. In other words, the Fed essentially re-stated what was already obvious. Rates have been moving for other reasons recently, and those motivations supersede minor course corrections from the Fed.

The broader trend in rates remains negative. It has been and will continue to be the case that we need to see a much bigger and longer-lasting bounce in rates before we can entertain anything else. Needless to say, floating and hoping for a bounce is not the right strategy at the moment, even though it will end up looking like a good idea in hindsight one of these days.


Today’s Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.375-4.5%
  • FHA/VA – 4.0-4.25%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.625-3.75%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 3.0-3.5% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • 2017 had proven to be a relatively good year for mortgage rates despite widespread expectations for a stronger push higher after the presidential election in late 2016.
  • While rates remain low in absolute terms, they moved higher in a more threatening way heading into the 4th quarter, relative to the stability and improvement seen earlier in 2017
  • The default stance for now is that this trend toward higher rates has the potential to continue. It will take more than a few great days here and there for that outlook to change.
  • For weeks, this bullet point had warned about recent stability inviting a bigger dose of volatility. That volatility is now here. As such, locking is generally the better choice until the volatility is clearly dying down.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
31?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
31?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.34% -0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.71% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.10% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.44% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.35% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.45% 1.22 -0.02
30 Yr. Fixed 4.14% 1.32 -0.01
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.06% 0.38 -0.05
15 Yr. Fixed 3.34% 0.38 -0.02
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.96% 0.20 -0.04
30 Yr. FHA 3.98% 0.35 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.14% 0.31 -0.12
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.15% 0.50 +0.11
15 Yr. Fixed 3.62% 0.50 +0.13
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.52% 0.40 +0.06

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 98.02 0.00
30YR FNMA 3.5 100.95 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.0 99.08 -0.02
30YR GNMA 3.5 101.77 -0.02
15YR FNMA 3.0 100.48 -0.05
15YR FNMA 2.5 98.48 -0.05
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 2.1486% +0.0203
5 YR 2.5256% +0.0168
10 YR 2.7200% -0.0036
30 YR 2.9462% -0.0293
Prices as of: 1/31/2018 4:09PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2018 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, January 31, 2018 2:02 PM

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Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in NovemberDecember indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Averaging through hurricane-related fluctuations, job gainsGains in employment, household spending, and business fixed investment have been solid, and the unemployment rate declined further. Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters.stayed low. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation…

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Robots Coming for Your Job? Why Automated Underwriting is Good

Robots Coming for Your Job? Why Automated Underwriting is Good

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, January 31, 2018 12:40 PM

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Loan applications are increasingly submitted and approved via a cell phone and Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac constantly refer in press releases to their respective automated systems. Therefore, it is startling to learn that, on the front lines of lending, underwriting remains far from what a jockey friend used to call a “push-button pony.” Eric Connors, Executive, CoreLogic Mortgage and Credit Analytics, writes in the company’s Insights blog that 2017 was a good year for innovations at the front end or point of sale (POS) of mortgage lending. But those improvements also serve to highlight “the ongoing disconnect between the digital consumer experience and the cobbled together, often manual underwriting processes.

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Although Pending Sales Up, NAR Warns of Tax Law Implications

Although Pending Sales Up, NAR Warns of Tax Law Implications

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, January 31, 2018 10:39 AM

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Pending home sales finished off the year in a more upbeat tune. Although the December gain in sales, reported on Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) was a slim one, it made three consecutive monthly gains for the leading indicator. NAR warned however that it expects existing home sales and price growth to moderate, primarily because of the expected impact of the new tax laws in high cost housing markets. NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rose 0.5 percent to 110.1 in December, from an upwardly revised (from 109.5) 109.6 in November. The index is now 0.5 percent higher than in December 2016. It was the highest level for the PHSI since it hit 111.3 last March.

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Upcoming Events; DOJ and Eagle Home; Compliance “Fun” With CRM’s

Upcoming Events; DOJ and Eagle Home; Compliance "Fun" With CRM’s

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Wednesday, January 31, 2018 8:16 AM

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“Rob, are you hearing an issue regarding ‘individual CRMs?’ Where LOs are purchasing their own CRMs, which move with them to various companies, and then the compliance personnel at each company can’t effectively monitor the activities of the LO?” I am not a compliance expert – merely playing one on TV – but yes, and the big concern is that LOs are keeping more than just a name and a phone number in the system. And this opens cans of worms. (More below in the compliance & CRM section.) FHA announced that it recently launched newly redesigned and enhanced Electronic Courses on Loss Mitigation and Servicing System…

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