MBS RECAP: Disconcertingly Decent Day For Bonds

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MBS RECAP: Disconcertingly Decent Day For Bonds

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Thursday, May 31, 2018 5:08 PM

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Today brought resolution (probably) for a problem that had been greatly benefiting bonds and rates. Earlier this week, the prospect of snap elections in Italy threatened to stand as a de facto referendum on the country’s EU membership. Bonds loved this because a systemically-doomed EU is a great motivation for safe-haven bond buying, not to mention a general economic headwind.

Today, Italian officials quietly agreed on alternate nominations that would clear up the political gridlock and help avoid the much-feared elections. Perhaps that news broke too late in the…

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“Dire” Supply Levels Pull Pending Home Sales Lower

"Dire" Supply Levels Pull Pending Home Sales Lower

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Thursday, May 31, 2018 9:58 AM

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Pending home sales, like both new and existing home sales reported earlier this month, posted an April loss. The National Association of Realtors® said its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) declined 1.3 percent in April, down from its March reading of 107.8 (revised from 107.6) to 106.4. The index, a leading indicator of existing homes sales, had posted modest increases in each of the previous two months. The PHSI is down 2.1 percent from its level in April 2017. It was the fourth straight month the index has lagged on an annual basis.

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Attempt to Consolidate Recent Gains

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Attempt to Consolidate Recent Gains

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Thursday, May 31, 2018 9:09 AM

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Even after yesterday’s weakness, bond markets remained in much stronger territory on the week due to the size of Tuesday’s move. This is a fairly typical pattern surrounding big, unexpected shifts in trading levels. The first day sets the direction of the move. The second day is basically a throw-away day for adjustment and the third day finally starts showing us where things might start settling down, all things being equal.

That “all things being equal” part is important in cases where the big first-day move is driven by an event that’s subject to near-term change…

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DTC Product; Credit Box Changes; Jobs and Spending

DTC Product; Credit Box Changes; Jobs and Spending

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Thursday, May 31, 2018 8:18 AM

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At the recent MBA conference, plenty of discussion focused on non-QM lending. But plenty “off the record” discussions among execs mentioned changing LO comp and waiting for competitors to fail. Correspondent investors and warehouse banks all maintain a watch list of mortgage companies who are losing money and appeared to be ready to cut off those customers who cannot restore profitability in the 2nd and/or 3rd quarters of 2018. The STRATMOR Group weighed in on profitability below. Volume is one thing, but is your company making money?

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MBS RECAP: Obligatory Bounce For Political Moderation in The EU

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MBS RECAP: Obligatory Bounce For Political Moderation in The EU

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, May 30, 2018 6:09 PM

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Back in 2011/2012, EU-related fears had more to do with certain countries being unable to pay their debt and/or general systemic risk relating to Greece being the first domino in the eventual complete collapse of the union. We got past that.

Now the fear has morphed into that of various countries opting to exit the EU (as The UK already did). The focus is currently on Italy in that regard. Yesterday’s developments made the risk seem as big as its been–ever, really.

An Italian EU exit would be a big deal and markets treated it accordingly. Today’s…

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Daily Newsletter: How to Help Homebuyers; Rates Slightly Higher After Yesterday’s Big Drop; Applications Down Again

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30 Year Fixed
4.55% +0.02
15 Year Fixed
3.99% +0.02
10YR Treasury
2.86% +0.0669
FNMA 30YR 3.5
99.66 -0.33
FNMA 15YR 2.5
99.44 -0.19
View Today’s Rates
Wednesday May 30, 2018
Mortgage Rate Watch – 5:36PM
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher After Yesterday’s Big Drop
Mortgage rates were somewhat higher today as politicians struck a more conciliatory tone in Italy. To be clear, we are indeed talking about mortgage rates in the United States in relation …
MND NewsWire – 8:39AM
Focus, Focus, Focus: Helping Buyers Find the Way
Buying a home is a process with a lot of moving parts. Do buyers make it more complicated, or even drop out of the process because they tend, for many reasons, to focus on the wrong …
MND NewsWire – 8:07AM
Mortgage Applications Decline for Sixth Consecutive Week
Although interest rates extended their decline for the second week, the level of mortgage activity failed to respond. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite …
MBS Commentary – 8:44AM
MBS Day Ahead: Rally’s Resolve Already Tested; Mind The Gap
Today begins with yesterday’s Italy-inspired mega rally under heavy fire. Compared to last Friday’s closing levels, roughly half of the overall gains remain intact. That means the important …

Latest Video


Don’t bet on bonds for yield

Italy’s woes a political crisis, not yet a financial crisis

Mortgage apps down 2.9% vs. previous week

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.55% +0.02
15 Yr FRM 3.99% +0.02
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.33% +0.03
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.62% +0.03
5/1 Yr ARM 3.92% +0.02

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.65% 1.14 +0.09
30 Yr. Fixed 4.19% 1.21 +0.02
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.68% 0.46 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.12% 0.51 +0.05
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.55% 0.37 +0.00
30 Yr. FHA 4.69% 0.81 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.83% 0.68 -0.10
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.66% 0.40 +0.05
15 Yr. Fixed 4.15% 0.40 +0.07
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.87% 0.30 +0.05

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 96.91 -0.34
30YR FNMA 3.5 99.66 -0.33
30YR GNMA 3.0 97.89 -0.36
30YR GNMA 3.5 100.45 -0.28
15YR FNMA 3.0 99.44 -0.19
15YR FNMA 2.5 97.41 -0.23
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 2.4155% +0.0804
5 YR 2.6828% +0.0820
10 YR 2.8568% +0.0669
30 YR 3.0253% +0.0492
Prices as of: 5/30/2018 5:06PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2018 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher After Yesterday’s Big Drop

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.55% +0.02
15 Year Fixed
3.99% +0.02
10YR Treasury
2.86% +0.0669
FNMA 30YR 3.5
99.66 -0.33
FNMA 15YR 2.5
99.44 -0.19
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher After Yesterday’s Big Drop
May 30, 2018
Mortgage rates were somewhat higher today as politicians struck a more conciliatory tone in Italy. To be clear, we are indeed talking about mortgage rates in the United States in relation to European politics. It’s not the first time and it likely won’t be the last.

The European Union is massive in terms of the size of its economy and its impacts on the global financial system. Threats to the stability of the EU cause shockwaves in financial markets. Those shockwaves have an impact on everything from stock prices to mortgage rates.

The latest threat is Italy’s would-be government: a coalition between 2 parties that are both less than enthusiastic about Italy remaining in the EU. They drafted a lawmaking gameplan 2 weeks ago, and while it didn’t include any specific goals regarding the country’s EU membership, one of their nominees is a vocal proponent of a Brexit-style departure for Italy.

Yesterday’s surge toward lower rates occurred because the Italian President vetoed that nomination. At first glance, that might seem like good news because it keeps the guy who wants to leave the EU out of office. The unintentional consequence is that new elections would have to be held and those elections would likely evolve into a referendum on Italy’s membership in the EU.

Today saw the political tone move in a more moderate direction, with key players on both sides expressing some willingness to sort things out and try to avoid snap elections. This does more than anything defuse the sorts of risks that helped rates yesterday. In short, that’s why rates moved higher today. To whatever extent the conciliatory tone grows, rates could continue higher.


Loan Originator Perspective

Bond markets’ recent rally stalled today, and we surrendered a portion of yesterday’s robust gains. We may have seen week’s best pricing this AM. With May’s jobs report looming Friday, I’m back to locking deals within 30 days of closing.- Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Today’s Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.5-4.625%
  • FHA/VA – 4.375%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 4.00%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 3.75-4.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Rates have been moving higher in a serious way due to headwinds that cannot be quickly defeated. These include the Fed’s increasingly restrictive monetary policy outlook, the increased amount of Treasury issuance to pay for the tax bill (higher bond issuance = higher rates), and the possibility that fiscal stimulus results in higher growth/inflation.
  • While we may see periodic corrections to the broader trend toward higher rates, it’s safer to assume that broader trend can and will continue. Until that changes, it makes much more sense to remain heavily-biased toward locking as opposed to floating.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.55% +0.02
15 Yr FRM 3.99% +0.02
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.33% +0.03
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.62% +0.03
5/1 Yr ARM 3.92% +0.02

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.65% 1.14 +0.09
30 Yr. Fixed 4.19% 1.21 +0.02
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.68% 0.46 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.12% 0.51 +0.05
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.55% 0.37 +0.00
30 Yr. FHA 4.69% 0.81 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.83% 0.68 -0.10
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.66% 0.40 +0.05
15 Yr. Fixed 4.15% 0.40 +0.07
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.87% 0.30 +0.05

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 96.91 -0.34
30YR FNMA 3.5 99.66 -0.33
30YR GNMA 3.0 97.89 -0.36
30YR GNMA 3.5 100.45 -0.28
15YR FNMA 3.0 99.44 -0.19
15YR FNMA 2.5 97.41 -0.23
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 2.4155% +0.0804
5 YR 2.6828% +0.0820
10 YR 2.8568% +0.0669
30 YR 3.0253% +0.0492
Prices as of: 5/30/2018 5:06PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2018 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.