MBS RECAP: Deceptively Decent Week

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MBS RECAP: Deceptively Decent Week

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, June 29, 2018 6:49 PM

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On 2 occasions this week, bonds set closing yield lows for the month. Moreover, if we strike the craziest day from late May from the record (since Italy was a temporary market mover), we saw the best closing levels since mid April.

It would be nice if we could say that there were any specific, scandalous reasons for such strong levels. Instead, we merely inched our way lower in rates, perhaps catching just a whiff of benefit from the big selling in stocks. In the bigger picture, both stocks and bonds are consolidating–and have been for most of 2018. Stocks…

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Daily Newsletter: Housing Costs Take Blame; Rent vs Own; Rates on Autopilot

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30 Year Fixed
4.66% +0.00
15 Year Fixed
4.11% +0.00
10YR Treasury
2.86% +0.0072
FNMA 30YR 3.5
99.48 -0.03
FNMA 15YR 2.5
99.38 -0.03
View Today’s Rates
Friday June 29, 2018
MND NewsWire – 1:40PM
Housing Costs Take the Most Blame for Millennial Homeownership Gap
A current post in Freddie Mac’s Insight blog looks again at the decline in homeownership among young adults and tries to determine the role played by rising housing costs. The post …
MND NewsWire – 8:38AM
Affordability Perceptions: Consumers Weigh in on Rent vs. Own
Housing inventory shortages, lack of new construction, and the not-unrelated issues of rising prices and falling measures of affordability have been major topics of discussion and analysis …
Mortgage Rate Watch – 5:57PM
Mortgage Rates on Autopilot Ahead of Holiday Week
Mortgage rates haven’t moved for 3 straight days now. In fact, if you’re not too concerned with minutia, there hasn’t been any major movement in weeks. Unless something big happens …
MBS Commentary – 9:51AM
MBS Day Ahead: Still Vetting The Big-Picture Shelf. Still Waiting For Next Move
With each passing day this week, bonds do more to prove that the low yields achieved during the Italian panic were more than the mere byproduct of a safe-haven snowball rally. We saw …

Latest Video


Rising risks to real estate in Baton Rouge

El-Erian: Key issue for European banks remains government bonds

Fed’s stress tests are not that hard to pass, says Mohamed El-Erian

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.66% +0.00
15 Yr FRM 4.11% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.38% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.69% +0.00
5/1 Yr ARM 4.00% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.65% 1.14 +0.09
30 Yr. Fixed 4.19% 1.21 +0.02
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.68% 0.46 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.12% 0.51 +0.05
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.55% 0.37 +0.00
30 Yr. FHA 4.69% 0.81 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.83% 0.68 -0.10
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.55% 0.50 -0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 4.04% 0.50 +0.00
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.87% 0.30 +0.04

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 96.77 -0.08
30YR FNMA 3.5 99.48 -0.03
30YR GNMA 3.0 97.83 -0.14
30YR GNMA 3.5 100.27 -0.08
15YR FNMA 3.0 99.38 -0.03
15YR FNMA 2.5 97.13 -0.03
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 2.5323% +0.0162
5 YR 2.7395% +0.0219
10 YR 2.8601% +0.0072
30 YR 2.9898% +0.0226
Prices as of: 6/29/2018 5:05PM EST

23623981

This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2018 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Weekly Newsletter: Lenders Rush to Cut Costs; New Homes Surge; Pending Homes Lag; High Price Reality Check

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30 Year Fixed
4.66% +0.00
15 Year Fixed
4.11% +0.00
10YR Treasury
2.86% +0.0072
FNMA 30YR 3.5
99.48 -0.03
FNMA 15YR 2.5
99.38 -0.03
View Today’s Rates
Friday June 29, 2018
MND NewsWire – 6/25
Big Shift in Lender Attitudes Toward Cutting Costs
There was plenty of foreshadowing, but Fannie Mae’s Chief Economist Doug Duncan said last week that cost-cutting has risen as a priority for mortgage lenders. Both the Mortgage Bankers …
MND NewsWire – 6/25
New Home Sales Up Sharply; Prices Slump
The sales of new homes surged in May, outpacing the consensus of expectations, and while one months’ data is just that, both median and average home prices were down sharply. The U …
MND NewsWire – 6/26
Case-Shiller: Higher Home Prices and a Reality Check
The producers of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price indices injected a dose of reality into their report for April. David M. Blitzer Managing Director and Chairman of the …
MND NewsWire – 6/27
Pending Home Sales Fall Behind 2017 Levels for Fifth Month
The number of new contracts for existing home sales barely made it onto the bottom rung of analysts’ expectations in May. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending …

Latest Video


Existing home sales slip due to affordability crisis

New home sales get a bump despite mortgage rate increase

Housing market remains strong despite rising rates, says Lennar executive chairman

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.66% +0.00
15 Yr FRM 4.11% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.38% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.69% +0.00
5/1 Yr ARM 4.00% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.65% 1.14 +0.09
30 Yr. Fixed 4.19% 1.21 +0.02
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.68% 0.46 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.12% 0.51 +0.05
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.55% 0.37 +0.00
30 Yr. FHA 4.69% 0.81 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.83% 0.68 -0.10
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.55% 0.50 -0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 4.04% 0.50 +0.00
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.87% 0.30 +0.04

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 96.77 -0.08
30YR FNMA 3.5 99.48 -0.03
30YR GNMA 3.0 97.83 -0.14
30YR GNMA 3.5 100.27 -0.08
15YR FNMA 3.0 99.38 -0.03
15YR FNMA 2.5 97.13 -0.03
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 2.5323% +0.0162
5 YR 2.7395% +0.0219
10 YR 2.8601% +0.0072
30 YR 2.9898% +0.0226
Prices as of: 6/29/2018 5:05PM EST

23623981

This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2018 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Weekly Rate Report: Rates Inch Lower, But Not Eagerly

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weeklyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.66% +0.00
15 Year Fixed
4.11% +0.00
10YR Treasury
2.86% +0.0072
FNMA 30YR 3.5
99.48 -0.03
FNMA 15YR 2.5
99.38 -0.03
View Today’s Rates
Rates Inch Lower, But Not Eagerly
June 29, 2018
Market Summary
Mortgage rates ended the week slightly better off, compared to the end of last week. The general theme, however, was FLAT.

The bonds that underlie mortgage rates took only limited cues from fluctuations in stocks. The latter experienced more volatility due to trade war headlines.

In the bigger picture, we’re still very close to long-term highs. Stocks and bonds (rates) are both on the lookout for an economic shift that may or may not be precipitated by a trade war that may or may not fully develop. Until it does, neither side of the market seems eager to make a big move.

-Matt Graham, Mortgage News Daily

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
29?w=360
Week in Review
Rates shown below are based on the 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

Beginning Average: 4.70%
Ending Average: 4.66%
Weekly Change: -0.04%
Yearly Change: +0.68%

Friday, June 22, 2018 : 4.70% (+0.01%)
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher today. Yet again, underlying bond markets suggested another fate. In other words, if mortgage rates were perfectly tied to underlying bond markets, they would have remained unchanged today.

So why didn’t they?

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Despite Flat Markets”

Monday, June 25, 2018 : 4.70% (+0.00%)
Conventional wisdom holds that interest rates tend to move in the same direction as stocks. This makes logical sense from a classical investment portfolio standpoint. If investors are selling stocks to buy bonds, the prices of stocks would fall and the price of bonds would rise. When bond prices rise, rates fall. But even with today’s heavy losses in stocks, mortgage rates barely budged today.

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Relatively Unchanged Despite Stock Losses”

Tuesday, June 26, 2018 : 4.70% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates were flat for the 3rd straight day today, keeping them in a holding pattern just slightly below the highest levels in years. This has been the case for more than a month now, with the exception a brief glimmer of hope at the end of May.

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Stuck in a Summertime Rut (For Now)”

Wednesday, June 27, 2018 : 4.66% (-0.04%)
Mortgage rates finally fell today after remaining flat for the last 3 business days. There are a few possible explanations for the friendly move, but the easiest to see and discuss is the weakness in the stock market. If you read my commentary somewhat regularly, you’ll know that I’m no great fan of using the “stocks vs bonds” explanation for rate movement (bonds = rates), but in today’s case, weakness in stocks was clearly correlated with strength in bonds (stronger bonds = lower rates). Much of this weakness surrounded trade-related headlines, however, so it’s just as fair to say that bonds were reacting to trade war news.

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Finally Make a (Small) Move”

Thursday, June 28, 2018 : 4.66% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates haven’t been too interested in making big moves recently. Today was no exception. In fact, most lenders’ rate quotes would be indiscernible from yesterday’s. The absence of movement could be good or bad, depending on your perspective. On a positive note, the absence of movement means rates are right in line with the lowest levels seen since the Italian political issues in late May. The other side of the coin is that nearly any day in the past 4 months has seen higher rates than nearly any day in the past 4 years. Trade-offs!

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Flatten Back Out”

Friday, June 29, 2018 : 4.66% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates haven’t moved for 3 straight days now. In fact, if you’re not too concerned with minutia, there hasn’t been any major movement in weeks. Unless something big happens in financial markets soon, we shouldn’t expect that to change next week

More detail: “Mortgage Rates on Autopilot Ahead of Holiday Week”

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.66% +0.00
15 Yr FRM 4.11% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.38% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.69% +0.00
5/1 Yr ARM 4.00% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.65% 1.14 +0.09
30 Yr. Fixed 4.19% 1.21 +0.02
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.68% 0.46 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.12% 0.51 +0.05
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.55% 0.37 +0.00
30 Yr. FHA 4.69% 0.81 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.83% 0.68 -0.10
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.55% 0.50 -0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 4.04% 0.50 +0.00
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.87% 0.30 +0.04

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 96.77 -0.08
30YR FNMA 3.5 99.48 -0.03
30YR GNMA 3.0 97.83 -0.14
30YR GNMA 3.5 100.27 -0.08
15YR FNMA 3.0 99.38 -0.03
15YR FNMA 2.5 97.13 -0.03
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 2.5323% +0.0162
5 YR 2.7395% +0.0219
10 YR 2.8601% +0.0072
30 YR 2.9898% +0.0226
Prices as of: 6/29/2018 5:05PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.

© 2018 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031

View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates on Autopilot Ahead of Holiday Week

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.66% +0.00
15 Year Fixed
4.11% +0.00
10YR Treasury
2.86% +0.0072
FNMA 30YR 3.5
99.48 -0.03
FNMA 15YR 2.5
99.38 -0.03
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates on Autopilot Ahead of Holiday Week
June 29, 2018
Mortgage rates haven’t moved for 3 straight days now. In fact, if you’re not too concerned with minutia, there hasn’t been any major movement in weeks. Unless something big happens in financial markets soon, we shouldn’t expect that to change next week

Rates are driven by bonds, and bonds are traded by humans (or algorithms written by humans). Many of those humans are on vacation at the moment, having taken advantage of the lull in the market calendar between now and next week’s 4th of July holiday. Markets will be closed on Wednesday and will close early on Tuesday. Point being: there’s not an exceptionally vibrant marketplace underlying mortgage rate movement at the moment.

After the holiday, however, volatility potential increases. Traders will be getting back to the office in greater numbers and the last part of the week brings several important economic reports.


Loan Originator Perspective

It was a sedate week in rate markets, but Monday brings a new month and June’s jobs report. With rates at their lowest levels of the month, the bulk of my clients are locking early. Happy Weekend! –Ted Rood, Senior Originator


Today’s Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.625-4.75
  • FHA/VA – 4.25-4.5%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 4.125%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 3.75-4.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Rates have been moving higher in a serious way due to headwinds that cannot be quickly defeated. These include the Fed’s increasingly restrictive monetary policy outlook, the increased amount of Treasury issuance to pay for the tax bill (higher bond issuance = higher rates), and the possibility that fiscal stimulus results in higher growth/inflation.
  • While we may see periodic corrections to the broader trend toward higher rates, it’s safer to assume that broader trend can and will continue. Until that changes, it makes much more sense to remain heavily-biased toward locking as opposed to floating.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
29?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
29?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.66% +0.00
15 Yr FRM 4.11% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.38% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.69% +0.00
5/1 Yr ARM 4.00% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.65% 1.14 +0.09
30 Yr. Fixed 4.19% 1.21 +0.02
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.68% 0.46 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.12% 0.51 +0.05
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.55% 0.37 +0.00
30 Yr. FHA 4.69% 0.81 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.83% 0.68 -0.10
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.55% 0.50 -0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 4.04% 0.50 +0.00
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.87% 0.30 +0.04

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 96.77 -0.08
30YR FNMA 3.5 99.48 -0.03
30YR GNMA 3.0 97.83 -0.14
30YR GNMA 3.5 100.27 -0.08
15YR FNMA 3.0 99.38 -0.03
15YR FNMA 2.5 97.13 -0.03
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 2.5323% +0.0162
5 YR 2.7395% +0.0219
10 YR 2.8601% +0.0072
30 YR 2.9898% +0.0226
Prices as of: 6/29/2018 5:05PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2018 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

Housing Costs Take the Most Blame for Millennial Homeownership Gap

Housing Costs Take the Most Blame for Millennial Homeownership Gap

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Friday, June 29, 2018 12:34 PM

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A current post in Freddie Mac’s Insight blog looks again at the decline in homeownership among young adults and tries to determine the role played by rising housing costs. The post is based on recent research by the company’s Economic and Housing Research Group headed by Chief Economist Sam Khater. Adults in the age group usually categorized as Millennials (25 to 34) have deferred homebuying as higher prices push it further into the future. The weakening affordability is particularly hard on first-time homebuyers because prices increase the fastest among the lower-priced homes they would typically buy.

(READ THE FULL POST)

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MBS Day Ahead: Still Vetting The Big-Picture Shelf. Still Waiting For Next Move

Before you read it here, it was on MBS Live.
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MBS Day Ahead: Still Vetting The Big-Picture Shelf. Still Waiting For Next Move

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, June 29, 2018 9:51 AM

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With each passing day this week, bonds do more to prove that the low yields achieved during the Italian panic were more than the mere byproduct of a safe-haven snowball rally. We saw intraday lows just over 2.82% on Wednesday. these line up with the intraday lows from May 31st–the first day that bonds weren’t in the throes of a high-volume, high-volatility response to Italy.

Although bonds would ultimately go on to lose ground in early June, much of that had to do with positioning for the big central bank announcements. Ever since then, we’ve been rallying …

(READ THE FULL POST)

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