MBS RECAP: Bonds End November on Strong Note

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MBS RECAP: Bonds End November on Strong Note

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, November 30, 2018 4:06 PM

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In and of itself, today’s trading session wasn’t anything special. There wasn’t much by way of economic data (just Chicago PMI, which fell on deaf ears) or scheduled events (several Fed speakers, but no market moving comments). Rather, bond traders were left to simply put in any remaining month-end trades and then hit cruise control.

That resulted in a smooth ride and the lowest closing levels since mid-September by the 3pm CME close. It also made November the best month of the year in terms of 10yr yield gains. For Fannie 4.0 MBS, it was the best month of gains…

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Weekly Rate Report: Mortgage Rates Surge Lower

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weeklyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.86% +0.02
15 Year Fixed
4.37% +0.02
10YR Treasury
3.01% -0.0238
FNMA 30YR 3.5
98.06 +0.11
FNMA 15YR 2.5
98.69 +0.08
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Surge Lower
November 30, 2018
Market Summary
Mortgage rates surged lower this week as markets reacted to a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who said rates were now just below neutral. That’s a fancy way of saying that the Fed is getting close to being done with the current cycle of interest rate hikes. While those hikes don’t affect mortgage rates directly, an ongoing cycle of Fed rate hikes tends to coincide with rising mortgage rates.

After the speech, bonds improved at their quickest pace in more than 2 weeks. Bond market improvement translates to lower rates. Combined with the strong week earlier in the month, it was enough to make November the best month of 2018 for rates.

Next week brings important economic data that could either accelerate or reverse the positive momentum.

-Matt Graham, Mortgage News Daily

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360
Week in Review
Rates shown below are based on the 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

Beginning Average: 4.94%
Ending Average: 4.86%
Weekly Change: -0.08%
Yearly Change: +0.96%

Friday, November 23, 2018 : 4.94% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates were every bit as flat as expected today. That’s a good thing at the moment, considering we’re holding in line with the lowest levels in more than a month. For the average borrower, that’s roughly an eighth of a percentage point lower than 2 weeks ago, when rates were near 8-year highs.

More detail: “Expect More Mortgage Rate Volatility in Coming Weeks”

Monday, November 26, 2018 : 4.94% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates began the post-holiday week by holding the same sideways posture seen last week during the slow market days surrounding Thanksgiving. Generally speaking, slow market days make for limited mortgage rate movement. The Monday following Thanksgiving is often something less than a full-fledged trading day for the investors that ultimately dictate interest rate momentum. In other words, today’s absence of change isn’t abnormal. There’s a greater chance that we see some more movement in the coming days.

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Still On Vacation”

Tuesday, November 27, 2018 : 4.94% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates avoided returning to reality yet again today. In other words, rates were almost perfectly unchanged for the 4th straight business day. These patterns (or lack thereof) are fairly typical of the thanksgiving time frame, but the return of volatility is a bit of a moving target after that. Clearly, we’re not there yet.

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Hold Recent Lows “

Wednesday, November 28, 2018 : 4.93% (-0.01%)
Mortgage rates began the day just like they’ve begun each of the past 5 business days: perfectly unchanged! As we discussed yesterday, the recent absence of movement is a good thing in the short term as rates are holding near their lowest levels in more than a month. And it’s a bad thing in the bigger picture considering current levels are still very close to the highest rates in more than 7 years.

More detail: “First Noticeable Move in Mortgage Rates in More Than a Week”

Thursday, November 29, 2018 : 4.84% (-0.09%)
Mortgage rates surged lower today, falling at the fastest single-day pace in more than a year. In order to see the average lender offer lower rates, you’d need to go back to October 2nd at least. For many lenders, it would be a few weeks before that. Granted, this merely restores rates to what had been 7-year highs at the time, but you know what they say about journeys of 1000 steps and what not…

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Surge Lower”

Friday, November 30, 2018 : 4.86% (+0.02%)
Mortgage rates may have ebbed slightly higher today, but that only erased a fraction of the improvement seen over the past 2 days. Combined with the even stronger showing 2 weeks ago, this makes November the best month of 2018 in terms of mortgage rate improvement.

More detail: “November Was a Great Month For Mortgage Rates”

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.86% +0.02
15 Yr FRM 4.37% +0.02
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.37% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.54% +0.02
5/1 Yr ARM 4.75% +0.00

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 4.15% 1.16 -0.02
30 Yr. Fixed 4.78% 1.15 +0.01
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.96% 0.49 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.39% 0.50 +0.01
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.93% 0.31 +0.01
30 Yr. FHA 4.95% 0.80 +0.01
5/1 ARM 4.24% 0.48 +0.02
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.81% 0.50 -0.13
15 Yr. Fixed 4.25% 0.40 -0.11
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 4.12% 0.30 -0.02

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 95.31 +0.13
30YR FNMA 3.5 98.06 +0.11
30YR GNMA 3.0 96.30 +0.05
30YR GNMA 3.5 98.80 +0.09
15YR FNMA 3.0 98.69 +0.08
15YR FNMA 2.5 96.44 +0.06
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 2.8048% -0.0039
5 YR 2.8378% -0.0102
10 YR 3.0078% -0.0238
30 YR 3.3047% -0.0222
Prices as of: 11/30/2018 3:59PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.

© 2018 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031

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Weekly Newsletter: Loan Limits Increase; Rates Surge Lower; Prices Still Rising; Forecasts Still Cooling

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weeklynewsletter.png
30 Year Fixed
4.86% +0.02
15 Year Fixed
4.37% +0.02
10YR Treasury
3.01% -0.0256
FNMA 30YR 3.5
98.09 +0.14
FNMA 15YR 2.5
98.69 +0.08
View Today’s Rates
Friday November 30, 2018
MND NewsWire – 11/27
Loan Limits Increase to $484,350
Given the rapid run-up in home prices over the last year, it’s no surprise that loan limits will also be going up in 2019. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced that the …
Mortgage Rate Watch – 11/29
Mortgage Rates Surge Lower
Mortgage rates surged lower today, falling at the fastest single-day pace in more than a year. In order to see the average lender offer lower rates, you’d need to go back to October …
MND NewsWire – 11/27
Home Prices Still Increasing – Just a Little Slower
The views about the direction of home prices diverged slightly in September, as those reported in the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller indices slowed for the second month in a row while …
MND NewsWire – 11/28
Housing Forecasts: When Cooling Isn’t so Cool.
With both interest rates and home prices rising it is nearly impossible to find a housing forecast that doesn’t include the word ” cooling .” The November outlook from Freddie Mac is …

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Powell: Rates just below range of neutral estimates

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.86% +0.02
15 Yr FRM 4.37% +0.02
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.37% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.54% +0.02
5/1 Yr ARM 4.75% +0.00

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 4.15% 1.16 -0.02
30 Yr. Fixed 4.78% 1.15 +0.01
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.96% 0.49 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.39% 0.50 +0.01
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.93% 0.31 +0.01
30 Yr. FHA 4.95% 0.80 +0.01
5/1 ARM 4.24% 0.48 +0.02
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.81% 0.50 -0.13
15 Yr. Fixed 4.25% 0.40 -0.11
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 4.12% 0.30 -0.02

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 95.34 +0.16
30YR FNMA 3.5 98.09 +0.14
30YR GNMA 3.0 96.34 +0.09
30YR GNMA 3.5 98.80 +0.09
15YR FNMA 3.0 98.69 +0.08
15YR FNMA 2.5 96.42 +0.05
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
TR_Eikon_Email.png
2 YR 2.8027% -0.0060
5 YR 2.8361% -0.0119
10 YR 3.0060% -0.0256
30 YR 3.3047% -0.0222
Prices as of: 11/30/2018 4:03PM EST

23623981

This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2018 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Newsletter: Best Month of 2018 For Rates; Origination Slump Hits Lender Profits; Freddie Portfolio Up 3.5%

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30 Year Fixed
4.86% +0.02
15 Year Fixed
4.37% +0.02
10YR Treasury
3.01% -0.0256
FNMA 30YR 3.5
98.05 +0.09
FNMA 15YR 2.5
98.66 +0.05
View Today’s Rates
Friday November 30, 2018
Mortgage Rate Watch – 3:02PM
November Was a Great Month For Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates may have ebbed slightly higher today, but that only erased a fraction of the improvement seen over the past 2 days. Combined with the even stronger showing 2 weeks ago …
MND NewsWire – 9:40AM
Decline in Originations Hurting Lender Profit
Financial concerns continued for independent mortgage banks and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks as they reported, on average, declining profit margins in the third quarter …
MND NewsWire – 11:17AM
Freddie Mac Portfolio Grows 3.5 Percent, Delinquencies Decrease
Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 4.7 percent in October, up from 2.3 percent the previous month. The portfolio balance …
Pipeline Press – 8:58AM
Paper on Fraud; FDIC and Non-Bank Lending; The Fed to Start Watching OBFR Instead of Fed Funds?
As one Native American said, “Only a white man would cut two inches from the top of a blanket, sew it to the bottom, and think he has now has a longer blanket.” (Feel free …

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NY Fed President: Neutral rate low for foreseeable future

We’ll get a hike in December, but also a dovish outlook, says Raymond James’s Kevin Giddis

Minneapolis Fed president says he’s worried to raise rates prematurely

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.86% +0.02
15 Yr FRM 4.37% +0.02
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.37% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.54% +0.02
5/1 Yr ARM 4.75% +0.00

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 4.15% 1.16 -0.02
30 Yr. Fixed 4.78% 1.15 +0.01
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.96% 0.49 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.39% 0.50 +0.01
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.93% 0.31 +0.01
30 Yr. FHA 4.95% 0.80 +0.01
5/1 ARM 4.24% 0.48 +0.02
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.81% 0.50 -0.13
15 Yr. Fixed 4.25% 0.40 -0.11
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 4.12% 0.30 -0.02

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 95.33 +0.14
30YR FNMA 3.5 98.05 +0.09
30YR GNMA 3.0 96.27 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.5 98.80 +0.09
15YR FNMA 3.0 98.66 +0.05
15YR FNMA 2.5 96.41 +0.03
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
TR_Eikon_Email.png
2 YR 2.8048% -0.0039
5 YR 2.8378% -0.0102
10 YR 3.0060% -0.0256
30 YR 3.3031% -0.0238
Prices as of: 11/30/2018 3:35PM EST

23623981

This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2018 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: November Was a Great Month For Mortgage Rates

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.86% +0.02
15 Year Fixed
4.37% +0.02
10YR Treasury
3.01% -0.0256
FNMA 30YR 3.5
98.05 +0.09
FNMA 15YR 2.5
98.66 +0.05
View Today’s Rates
November Was a Great Month For Mortgage Rates
November 30, 2018
Mortgage rates may have ebbed slightly higher today, but that only erased a fraction of the improvement seen over the past 2 days. Combined with the even stronger showing 2 weeks ago, this makes November the best month of 2018 in terms of mortgage rate improvement.

All of the good times come with a price, however, as the first few days of the month saw rates move to their highest levels in more than 7 years. Nonetheless, anyone in the market to buy or refi has seen a meaningful improvement over the past 3 weeks.

How meaningful is meaningful? Assuming a loan amount of $300,000, the average mortgage payment (30yr fixed, conventional) would be $45/mo lower this week vs last week, and $90/mo lower vs the beginning of the month. In terms of upfront costs (i.e. if you were paying points to keep your rate low), you’d be saving $1500 cash today compared to last week, and $3000 compared to the beginning of the month. Not bad!

If December is able to keep these good times rolling, it will depend on the economic data set to release next week–especially the important jobs report on Friday.

Loan Originator Perspective

Bonds retained the week’s gains today, despite inflation data that exceeded expectations. Early November’s rate spike is fading, and it appears we’ve weathered 2018’s highest rates. I’m still locking most loans, but wouldn’t disagree with a risk-tolerant client who wanted to cautiously float. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator


Today’s Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.875%
  • FHA/VA – 4.375%-4.5%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 4.375%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 4.375%-4.875% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Rates continue coping with several big-picture headwinds, including: the Fed’s rate hike outlook (and general policy tightening), the increased amount of Treasury issuance to pay for the tax bill (higher bond issuance = higher rates), and the possibility that fiscal stimulus results in higher growth/inflation (which certainly seems to be the case so far in 2018).
  • While rates were able to recover and stay sideways in the summer months, September and October have seen a surge up to the highest levels in more than 7 years.
  • Upward pressure can continue as long as economic growth and inflation continue running near long-term highs. Stay defensive (i.e. generally more lock-biased). It will take a big change in economic fundamentals or geopolitical risk for the big picture to change. Such things tend to not happen as quickly as we’d like.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.86% +0.02
15 Yr FRM 4.37% +0.02
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.37% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.54% +0.02
5/1 Yr ARM 4.75% +0.00

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 4.15% 1.16 -0.02
30 Yr. Fixed 4.78% 1.15 +0.01
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.96% 0.49 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.39% 0.50 +0.01
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.93% 0.31 +0.01
30 Yr. FHA 4.95% 0.80 +0.01
5/1 ARM 4.24% 0.48 +0.02
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.81% 0.50 -0.13
15 Yr. Fixed 4.25% 0.40 -0.11
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 4.12% 0.30 -0.02

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 95.33 +0.14
30YR FNMA 3.5 98.05 +0.09
30YR GNMA 3.0 96.25 0.00
30YR GNMA 3.5 98.80 +0.09
15YR FNMA 3.0 98.66 +0.05
15YR FNMA 2.5 96.41 +0.03
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 2.8048% -0.0039
5 YR 2.8378% -0.0102
10 YR 3.0060% -0.0256
30 YR 3.3031% -0.0238
Prices as of: 11/30/2018 3:35PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2018 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

Freddie Mac Portfolio Grows 3.5 Percent, Delinquencies Decrease

Freddie Mac Portfolio Grows 3.5 Percent, Delinquencies Decrease

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Friday, November 30, 2018 10:03 AM

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Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 4.7 percent in October, up from 2.3 percent the previous month. The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $2.159 trillion compared to $2.151 trillion at the end of September and $2.067 trillion a year earlier. Purchases and Issuances totaled $33.968 billion, bringing the 2018 year-to-date total to $319.568 billion, Sales were ($686) billion and Liquidations ($24.927) billion in October and totaled ($17.602) and ($239.930) billion respectively so far this year. The annualized growth rate for 2018 through the end of October was 3.5 percent and the annualized liquidations rate was (13.7) percent.

(READ THE FULL POST)

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MBS Day Ahead: Last Day of Bonds’ Best Month in 2018

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MBS Day Ahead: Last Day of Bonds’ Best Month in 2018

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, November 30, 2018 10:05 AM

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Relative to the last 2 years of pain for bond markets, a sense of hope has emerged, seemingly overnight. That has to do with the fact that bonds (as benchmarked by 10yr Treasury Yields in this case) have only just broken below an important floor as of yesterday morning. In fact, that breakout wasn’t confirmed until yesterday afternoon. So yeah… it was basically overnight!

The floor in question is 3.05%. Ever since yields crested that level in September, it’s blocked all attempts to move back below.

2018-11-30 open1

But “hope” was in the works for several weeks before

(READ THE FULL POST)

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