MBS RECAP: Post-Fed Move Extends, Providing Clues About What Matters

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MBS RECAP: Post-Fed Move Extends, Providing Clues About What Matters

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Thursday, January 31, 2019 5:35 PM

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Yesterday marked a fairly big adjustment in the Fed’s monetary approach to the same old underlying economic realities that were in place at the time of their last meeting. Granted, we have had the government shutdown come and go in the intervening time, but that’s about it, and the Fed said they don’t expect any lasting GDP impact there.

So while the Fed CAN move markets because it’s acting as some sort of bellwether for underlying economic realities (i.e. “if the Fed’s worried, I’m worried too!), in this case, the Fed is moving markets simply because it changed the lens

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Daily Newsletter: Home Sales Jump 17%; Lenders Need More Inventory; Rates at 1-Year Lows

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30 Year Fixed
4.43% -0.11
15 Year Fixed
4.04% -0.08
10YR Treasury
2.63% -0.0447
FNMA 30YR 3.5
100.45 +0.19
FNMA 15YR 2.5
100.09 +0.13
View Today’s Rates
Thursday January 31, 2019
Mortgage Rate Watch – 4:31PM
Mortgage Rates Quietly Thunder to 1-Year Lows
Mortgage rates fell more triumphantly today, extending their reaction to yesterday’s Federal Reserve announcement. The Fed isn’t in direct control of interest rates, although the opposite …
MND NewsWire – 10:49AM
November New Home Sales – Worth the Wait
New home sales exploded in November, rising 16.9 percent from October’s dismal performance to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 units. The report from the U.S Census Bureau …
MND NewsWire – 11:51AM
Fannie Mae VP: Lenders Need More Inventory!
The chant throughout 2018 from housing industry sources was inventory, inventory, inventory – or lack of same. It was blamed first for rising home prices and then for the slow growth …
MBS Commentary – 9:50AM
MBS Day Ahead: With Rates on The Move, How Low Can We Go?
There’s no question that the Fed was surprisingly dovish yesterday–even among those who were expecting a dovish shift. But there is a question as to what moved markets in the wake …

Latest Video


2018 new home sales end weaker

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November new home sales beat expectations

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.43% -0.11
15 Yr FRM 4.04% -0.08
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.12% -0.04
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.28% -0.07
5/1 Yr ARM 4.35% -0.03

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 4.15% 1.16 -0.02
30 Yr. Fixed 4.78% 1.15 +0.01
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.96% 0.49 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.39% 0.50 +0.01
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.93% 0.31 +0.01
30 Yr. FHA 4.95% 0.80 +0.01
5/1 ARM 4.24% 0.48 +0.02
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.46% 0.50 +0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 3.89% 0.40 +0.01
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.96% 0.30 +0.06

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 98.16 +0.23
30YR FNMA 3.5 100.45 +0.19
30YR GNMA 3.0 99.13 +0.06
30YR GNMA 3.5 101.19 +0.19
15YR FNMA 3.0 100.09 +0.13
15YR FNMA 2.5 98.34 +0.19
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 2.4637% -0.0464
5 YR 2.4399% -0.0451
10 YR 2.6328% -0.0447
30 YR 2.9972% -0.0359
Prices as of: 1/31/2019 5:06PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2019 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Quietly Thunder to 1-Year Lows

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.43% -0.11
15 Year Fixed
4.04% -0.08
10YR Treasury
2.63% -0.0447
FNMA 30YR 3.5
100.45 +0.19
FNMA 15YR 2.5
100.09 +0.13
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Quietly Thunder to 1-Year Lows
January 31, 2019
Mortgage rates fell more triumphantly today, extending their reaction to yesterday’s Federal Reserve announcement. The Fed isn’t in direct control of interest rates, although the opposite often seems to be true. The free market largely decides rates due to factors like growth, inflation, and supply/demand of bonds. That said, the Fed plays a big role in helping/hindering the natural economic currents. They adjust accordingly to try to keep the economy firing on all cylinders without inflation overheating and without big financial stability risks.

Yesterday’s adjustment was fairly big and somewhat unexpected. Some of the market reaction may be due to the economic implications of the Fed’s apparent concern. In other words, it could be seen as wake-up call about the economic risks underpinning the Fed’s logic (and economic risks = lower rates, in general). But the fact that stocks have also improved today suggests markets are simply continuing to bask in the warm glow of a surprisingly friendly refocusing of the lens through which the Fed views the economy.

This second day of celebration has been a much bigger deal for the bond markets that underlie interest rates. Yesterday, we saw a nice move that may or may not have been real. Today, we rubbed our eyes and the same move was still in progress. Mortgage lenders adjusted their rate sheets accordingly. On average, conventional 30yr fixed rates/fees are as low as they’ve been since the first few days of February 2018. I’m OK with calling that a “1-year low” if you are.

Loan Originator Perspective

Bonds continued yesterday’s rally today, and my pricing improved considerably. While rates may still rally further, it’s sure tempting to lock here and take risk off the table before Friday’s NFP. I’ll lock February closings, wait on March’s for the moment. –Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Today’s Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.375
  • FHA/VA – 4.125 – 4.25%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 4.0 – 4.125%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 4.25%-4.625% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Headwinds that had plagued rates for most of the past 2 years began to die down in late 2018. A rapid decline in the stock market certainly helped drive investors into bonds (which helps rates) Highest rates in more than 7 years in Oct/Nov. 8-month lows by the end of the year
  • This is a bit of a crossroads. The rising rate environment could flare up again. We may look back at Oct/Nov and see a long-term ceiling, or we may look back at early December and see a temporary correction before more pain.
  • Either way, late 2018 was a sign that rates are willing to take opportunities presented to them. From here, it will be up to economic data, fiscal policies, and the stock market to decide on the next set of opportunities. The rougher the overall outlook, the better interest rates tend to do.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
31?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
31?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.43% -0.11
15 Yr FRM 4.04% -0.08
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.12% -0.04
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.28% -0.07
5/1 Yr ARM 4.35% -0.03

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 4.15% 1.16 -0.02
30 Yr. Fixed 4.78% 1.15 +0.01
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.96% 0.49 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.39% 0.50 +0.01
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.93% 0.31 +0.01
30 Yr. FHA 4.95% 0.80 +0.01
5/1 ARM 4.24% 0.48 +0.02
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.46% 0.50 +0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 3.89% 0.40 +0.01
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.96% 0.30 +0.06

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 98.16 +0.23
30YR FNMA 3.5 100.45 +0.19
30YR GNMA 3.0 99.13 +0.06
30YR GNMA 3.5 101.19 +0.19
15YR FNMA 3.0 100.09 +0.13
15YR FNMA 2.5 98.34 +0.19
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 2.4637% -0.0464
5 YR 2.4399% -0.0451
10 YR 2.6328% -0.0447
30 YR 2.9972% -0.0359
Prices as of: 1/31/2019 5:06PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2019 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

Fannie Mae VP: Lenders Need More Inventory!

Fannie Mae VP: Lenders Need More Inventory!

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Thursday, January 31, 2019 11:19 AM

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The chant throughout 2018 from housing industry sources was inventory, inventory, inventory – or lack of same. It was blamed first for rising home prices and then for the slow growth in home sales. Fannie Mae’s fourth quarter Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey found that most lenders agree that this was the case. Mark Palim, Fannie Mae’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, writes in the company’s Perspectives blog that nearly half of lenders responding to the survey named an insufficient supply of homes available for sale as the top reason behind the slow growth in sales last year.

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November New Home Sales – Worth the Wait

November New Home Sales – Worth the Wait

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Thursday, January 31, 2019 10:32 AM

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New home sales exploded in November, rising 16.9 percent from October’s dismal performance to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 units. The report from the U.S Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, delayed by over a month by the partial government shutdown, was in sharp contrast to the 8.9 percent decline from September to October with a reported 544,000 in annualized sales. The October number was also revised upward to 562,000 units. Sales have been down on a monthly basis in nearly every report since May, so despite the large November gains, new home sales remain 7.7 percent lower on an annual basis. Sales in November 2017 were estimated at an annualized 712,000 units.

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MBS Day Ahead: With Rates on The Move, How Low Can We Go?

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MBS Day Ahead: With Rates on The Move, How Low Can We Go?

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Thursday, January 31, 2019 9:50 AM

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There’s no question that the Fed was surprisingly dovish yesterday–even among those who were expecting a dovish shift. But there is a question as to what moved markets in the wake of the Fed. Specifically, are we dealing with the Fed’s surprisingly friendly interpretation of current conditions or are we trading the underlying reality of those conditions (with the Fed merely confirming that it wouldn’t be too pessimistic to do so)?

For its part, the stock market firmly declared it was trading the Fed’s interpretation yesterday. In fact, the Fed announcement was…

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Ginnie, Freedom, and loanDepot; Digital Trends Report; Rule 4210 Delayed Again

Ginnie, Freedom, and loanDepot; Digital Trends Report; Rule 4210 Delayed Again

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Thursday, January 31, 2019 8:18 AM

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Rumors of a cancelled President’s Club award event in a mortgage division of a bank in the Northwest have tongues wagging about acquisition rumors by a larger bank. Certainly 2018 was a year filled with rumors, and 2019 is beginning the same way whether it is with depositories or top 10 wholesalers. Hopefully significant job cuts are behind us as an industry although margins and industry volumes are not magically rebounding. Why would they? Along those lines, Ginnie Mae, with 140 or so employees overseeing $2 trillion of securities, is doing stress tests and has asked several non-bank lenders to improve financial metrics before receiving full approval to continue issuing Ginnie-backed mortgage bonds.

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