MBS RECAP: Token Gains, But Mostly For Treasuries; Volatility Risks Remain

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MBS RECAP: Token Gains, But Mostly For Treasuries; Volatility Risks Remain

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 5:49 PM

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Open up MBS Live today and you’ll be greeted with plenty of reassuring green numbers and positive reprice notifications. Unfortunately, those reprices were taking mortgage rates from moderately higher to slightly higher. The only substantial gains were seen in the Treasury market, and it’s debatable whether they could be referred to as ‘substantial’ in the first place.

10yr yields were down 2.3bps at 2.504%. That equates to nearly a quarter point in terms of PRICE. Meanwhile, Fannie 3.5 MBS only managed 2 ticks (0.06).

Early weakness came courtesy of stronger…

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Daily Newsletter: Price Gains Shift Away from Coasts; Pending Sales Climb; Rates Expected to Hold

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30 Year Fixed
4.30% +0.02
15 Year Fixed
3.98% +0.01
10YR Treasury
2.50% -0.0234
FNMA 30YR 3.5
100.92 +0.06
FNMA 15YR 2.5
100.50 +0.08
View Today’s Rates
Tuesday April 30, 2019
MND NewsWire – 10:44AM
Home Price Gains Shift Away from the Coasts
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices for February continue to show a slowdown in home price gains on a year-over-year basis although all of the monthly changes were higher than …
MND NewsWire – 10:10AM
Pending Sales Beat Estimates, Resume Climb
Pending home sales posted a second solid performance in 2019 , with home purchase contract signings in March recovering from their slight dip in February. However, the National Association …
MND NewsWire – 4:55PM
Rates Expected to Hold Through 2020, Spurring Originations
Freddie Mac’s April economic forecast focuses on interest rates and their impact on housing as the company’s Economic & Housing Research Group revises several of its earlier predictions …
MND NewsWire – 8:13AM
Mortgage Application Fraud Highest in Florida
CoreLogic says that, while the incidence of mortgage fraud has remained relatively stable in recent quarters, income fraud remains a growing problem. The company’s National Mortgage …

Latest Video


Pending home sales jump 3.8 percent

CNBC Fed Survey: Markets may be offsides on the Fed trade

Trump’s Fed tweet will have no influence on policy, says former Fed vice chair Kohn

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.30% +0.02
15 Yr FRM 3.98% +0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.00% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.19% +0.02
5/1 Yr ARM 4.07% +0.00

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 4.22% 1.43 -0.12
30 Yr. Fixed 4.78% 1.18 -0.20
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.67% 0.00 +0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 -4.00
30 Yr. Jumbo 0.00% 0.00 -4.40
30 Yr. FHA 0.00% 0.00 -4.64
5/1 ARM 0.00% 0.00 -3.95
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.20% 0.50 +0.03
15 Yr. Fixed 3.64% 0.50 +0.02
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.77% 0.40 -0.01

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 98.84 +0.09
30YR FNMA 3.5 100.92 +0.06
30YR GNMA 3.0 99.75 -0.03
30YR GNMA 3.5 101.67 +0.06
15YR FNMA 3.0 100.50 +0.08
15YR FNMA 2.5 98.97 +0.13
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 2.2660% -0.0282
5 YR 2.2783% -0.0333
10 YR 2.5036% -0.0234
30 YR 2.9296% -0.0251
Prices as of: 4/30/2019 5:05PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2019 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Continue Higher Despite Bond Market Gains

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.30% +0.02
15 Year Fixed
3.98% +0.01
10YR Treasury
2.50% -0.0234
FNMA 30YR 3.5
100.92 +0.06
FNMA 15YR 2.5
100.50 +0.08
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Continue Higher Despite Bond Market Gains
April 30, 2019
Mortgage rates moved up again today, despite modest improvement in the bond market (which typically coincides with lower rates). Part of the reason for the counter-intuitive behavior is timing. Bonds lost ground yesterday afternoon. This implied higher rates, but many lenders didn’t end up changing their mortgage rates. That meant the average lender began the day with a handicap. Moreover, today’s bond market improvement didn’t show up until a few hours into the morning.

Also at issue is the occasional discrepancies we see between broader bond markets and those that underlie mortgage rates. It’s a common misconception that 10yr Treasury yields determine mortgage rate movement on any given day. That’s only MOSTLY true, and even then, it’s more like they are supplementary investments that simply tend to move in the same direction on any given day. Today, for instance, Treasuries had a much better day than the mortgage bonds.

Long story short, between the timing of the market movement and small relative gains, there wasn’t any love for the average 30yr fixed rate quote, which is now as high as it’s been in at least a week. Recent movement is small potatoes compared to what we might see in the coming days, however, due to several big economic reports and tomorrow’s Fed policy announcement.


Loan Originator Perspective

Bonds regained their footing after a weak start, and posted slight gains by mid-day. Tomorrow brings ADP’s April employment estimate and a FOMC statement, with the week’s biggest data (April’s NFP jobs report) hitting Friday. I’m locking May loans, floating most closing further out. –Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Today’s Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.25-4.375%
  • FHA/VA – 4.0%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 4.00%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 3.875-4.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general
  • The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren’t the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.
  • Based on the Fed’s laundry list of concerns, the bond market (which determines rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad. The stronger the data, the more rates could rise, while weaker data could lead to new long-term lows.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.30% +0.02
15 Yr FRM 3.98% +0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.00% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.19% +0.02
5/1 Yr ARM 4.07% +0.00

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 4.22% 1.43 -0.12
30 Yr. Fixed 4.78% 1.18 -0.20
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.67% 0.00 +0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 -4.00
30 Yr. Jumbo 0.00% 0.00 -4.40
30 Yr. FHA 0.00% 0.00 -4.64
5/1 ARM 0.00% 0.00 -3.95
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.20% 0.50 +0.03
15 Yr. Fixed 3.64% 0.50 +0.02
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.77% 0.40 -0.01

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 98.84 +0.09
30YR FNMA 3.5 100.92 +0.06
30YR GNMA 3.0 99.75 -0.03
30YR GNMA 3.5 101.67 +0.06
15YR FNMA 3.0 100.50 +0.08
15YR FNMA 2.5 98.97 +0.13
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 2.2660% -0.0282
5 YR 2.2783% -0.0333
10 YR 2.5036% -0.0234
30 YR 2.9296% -0.0251
Prices as of: 4/30/2019 5:05PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2019 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

Rates Expected to Hold Through 2020, Spurring Originations

Rates Expected to Hold Through 2020, Spurring Originations

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 12:15 PM

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Freddie Mac’s April economic forecast focuses on interest rates and their impact on housing as the company’s Economic & Housing Research Group revises several of its earlier predictions. The report notes that mortgage interest rates, which started to ease in November, saw a drastic decline at the end of March and have remained near the same level since then. At the same time, the job market continues to be strong and wage growth has been increasing moderately. These factors are all conducive for “a steadily growing housing market in 2019,” they say.

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MBS Day Ahead: Two Ways to Look at The Yield Curve

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MBS Day Ahead: Two Ways to Look at The Yield Curve

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 11:03 AM

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The yield curve–technically a reference to the full spectrum of Treasury yields versus duration/maturities (i.e. 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 30 years), but often simply assumed to be the 2yr vs 10yr curve–has been a topic of increasing interest lately. But that doesn’t mean that INTEREST (in terms of rates) is increasing. Well, sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn’t. I’ll explain…

Because the yield curve is determined by one value minus another, it can move for a few different reasons or in a few different ways. Using 2yr and 10yr yields hereinafter, let’s count a…

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Home Price Gains Shift Away from the Coasts

Home Price Gains Shift Away from the Coasts

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 10:17 AM

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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices for February continue to show a slowdown in home price gains on a year-over-year basis although all of the monthly changes were higher than in January. The U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.0% annual gain in February, down from 4.2% in the previous month. The index was up 0.2 percent in February before seasonal (NSA) adjustment and 0.3 percent afterward (SA). The prior month prices were up 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted but lost 0.2 percent on an NSA basis.

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Pending Sales Beat Estimates, Resume Climb

Pending Sales Beat Estimates, Resume Climb

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 10:05 AM

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Pending home sales posted a second solid performance in 2019, with home purchase contract signings in March recovering from their slight dip in February. However, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR’s) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) continues to lag in its year-over-year numbers. The PHSI posted a 3.8 percent increase in March to a reading of 105.8 compared to 101.9 in February. January had kicked off the year with a 4.3 percent increase, but February countered that with a 1.0 percent decline. The index is 1.2 percent lower than in March 2018, marking the 15th straight month of annual decreases. Three of the four major regions saw growth during the month; the Northeast reported a minor slip in contract activity.

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