MBS RECAP: Calm Before The (Possible) Storm

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MBS RECAP: Calm Before The (Possible) Storm

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, June 28, 2019 3:01 PM

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Bonds were perfectly unchanged to start the day after the smallest amount of overnight movement we’ve seen all week. This is a palpable reminder that this week has indeed been all about coming to terms with the post-Fed range and preparing for what lies ahead. Specifically, ever since Fed day, 10yr yields have gradually traded in a narrower and narrower pattern without ever breaking outside the Fed day range.

Domestic data and events were of little concern to bonds today. A modicum of selling pressure was seen at the 8:20am CME open. It might have…

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Weekly Newsletter: New Home Sales Dragged Down; Pending Sales Tell Different Story; Here’s Why Most People Rent vs Buy

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30 Year Fixed
3.81% -0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.61% -0.01
10YR Treasury
2.01% -0.0072
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.22 +0.02
FNMA 15YR 2.5
101.94 0.00
View Today’s Rates
Friday June 28, 2019
MND NewsWire – 6/25
New Home Sales in West Plummet, Skewing National Totals
It was another disappointing month for new home sales , but due entirely to a sharp decline in those sales in the West. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban …
MND NewsWire – 6/27
Pending Home Sales Set Stage for Solid Summer Sales
Pending home sales got back on track in May , increasing by 1.1 percent after a 1.5 percent setback in April. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home Sales …
MND NewsWire – 6/27
Rent or Buy? The Answer May Depend on Your Other Expenses
A household’s decision between buying a home and renting one is being increasingly determined by its student loan debt and childcare cost burdens according to results of a Freddie Mac …
MND NewsWire – 6/25
Case-Shiller: Home Price Moderation not Tracking Rate Changes
The two sets of price indices released on Tuesday diverged again. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices continue to show declining appreciation while the Federal Housing Finance …

Latest Video


Here’s what Fannie Mae is forecasting for the housing market

Are investors pricing out first-time home buyers?

How lower mortgage rates are strengthening the refinance market

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.81% -0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.61% -0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.60% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.87% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.66% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 4.22% 1.43 -0.12
30 Yr. Fixed 4.78% 1.18 -0.20
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.67% 0.00 +0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 -4.00
30 Yr. Jumbo 0.00% 0.00 -4.40
30 Yr. FHA 0.00% 0.00 -4.64
5/1 ARM 0.00% 0.00 -3.95
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.73% 0.50 -0.11
15 Yr. Fixed 3.16% 0.50 -0.09
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.39% 0.40 -0.09

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 100.83 -0.03
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.22 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.0 102.20 -0.05
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.27 -0.02
15YR FNMA 3.0 101.94 0.00
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.67 +0.02
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 1.7409% -0.0060
5 YR 1.7631% -0.0082
10 YR 2.0068% -0.0072
30 YR 2.5299% -0.0057
Prices as of: 6/28/2019 2:25PM EST

23623981

This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2019 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Newsletter: Rates Face Big Volatility Risk Next Week; Weak Econ Data Helps Market Hunker Down Before G20

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30 Year Fixed
3.81% -0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.61% -0.01
10YR Treasury
2.01% -0.0072
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.22 +0.02
FNMA 15YR 2.5
101.94 0.00
View Today’s Rates
Friday June 28, 2019
Mortgage Rate Watch – 12:59PM
Rates Face Big Volatility Risk Next Week
Mortgage rates enjoyed a pleasantly flat week despite some volatility in the underlying bond market. The day-to-day changes in Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed-Securities (MBS) were noticeable …
MBS Commentary – 8:34AM
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Hope to Avoid Rocking Boat Until Next Week
In the day just past, both stocks and bonds showed a greater predisposition to react to trade-related headlines (more so in stocks, but noticeable in bonds as well). This likely has …
Pipeline Press – 9:09AM
Broker, Appraisal Products; Investor Policy and Procedure Changes
VA lenders are talking about the “cap” being removed as the Department of Veterans Affairs can now back loans that exceed the conforming loan limit. President Trump signed …

Latest Video


Chicago PMI clocks in at 49.7 for June

Consumer spending rose in May, beating expectations

Biggest risk to the markets is if Fed doesn’t cut rates, says BNY’s Liz Young

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.81% -0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.61% -0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.60% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.87% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.66% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 4.22% 1.43 -0.12
30 Yr. Fixed 4.78% 1.18 -0.20
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.67% 0.00 +0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 -4.00
30 Yr. Jumbo 0.00% 0.00 -4.40
30 Yr. FHA 0.00% 0.00 -4.64
5/1 ARM 0.00% 0.00 -3.95
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.73% 0.50 -0.11
15 Yr. Fixed 3.16% 0.50 -0.09
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.39% 0.40 -0.09

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 100.83 -0.03
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.22 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.0 102.20 -0.05
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.28 0.00
15YR FNMA 3.0 101.94 0.00
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.67 +0.02
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 1.7409% -0.0060
5 YR 1.7631% -0.0082
10 YR 2.0068% -0.0072
30 YR 2.5284% -0.0072
Prices as of: 6/28/2019 2:09PM EST

23623981

This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2019 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Weekly Rate Report: Low, Stable Rates… That Could Change Next Week

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weeklyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
3.81% -0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.61% -0.01
10YR Treasury
2.01% -0.0089
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.23 +0.03
FNMA 15YR 2.5
101.95 +0.02
View Today’s Rates
Low, Stable Rates… That Could Change Next Week
June 28, 2019
Market Summary
Mortgage rates enjoyed a pleasantly flat week despite some volatility in the underlying bond market. The day-to-day changes in Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed-Securities (MBS) were noticeable, but they all took place inside the range of values seen last Wednesday on Fed day. In other words, the bond market (which dictates rates) digested the Fed’s message and is now waiting for the next shoe to drop. When it does, we’re highly likely to see the current range give way to the next bout of strong momentum.

The shoe in question is next week’s economic data. After all, the Fed’s message last week was that it was prepared to cut rates if the economic data justified it. Next week contains several of the most important economic reports in the monthly rotation, including the all-important jobs report. The last jobs number was quite a bit weaker than expected. This will be the market’s (and the Fed’s) chance to find out if that was an anomaly or the beginning of a shift.

In general, stronger than expected economic data would make a case for a bounce toward higher rates. Disappointing data would have the opposite effect. There’s no telling exactly how far either move could run. It would depend, to some extent, on just how far the data is from expectations. Either way, be prepared for a bigger move.

Matt Graham, Mortgage News Daily

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
28?w=360
Week in Review
Rates shown below are based on the 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

Beginning Average: 3.80%
Ending Average: 3.81%
Weekly Change: +0.01%
Yearly Change: -0.88%

Friday, June 21, 2019 : 3.80% (+0.01%)
Mortgage rates have had an impressive run–the best since 2011, in fact, when it comes to total peak to trough movement. That winning streak might not even be over, but every time rates bounce recently–even if only slightly–it’s cause for concern. For one of a few potential reasons, these big moves in rates only last so long. This one is big enough and long enough that it makes sense to keep an eye out for the big shift.

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher; More Volatility on The Horizon”

Monday, June 24, 2019 : 3.80% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates were generally flat today, depending on the lender. Some were noticeably better while others were a hair worse. In both cases, rates are very close to the lowest levels since late 2016. Changes from Friday would most likely be measured in terms of upfront costs as opposed to differences in the quoted “note rate” itself (the rate most people are talking about when they talk about mortgage rates). Upfront costs simply allow for smaller fine-tuning adjustments when the market doesn’t move enough for lenders to change rate quotes by the customary 0.125%.

More detail: “Rates Catch a Break to Remain Near Long-Term Lows”

Tuesday, June 25, 2019 : 3.79% (-0.01%)
Mortgage rates were little-changed again today, despite moderate improvement in the broader bond market. Although it’s MBS (the mortgage-backed securities that underlie mortgage loans) that have a direct effect on mortgage rates, the broader bond market–especially the 10yr Treasury yield–tends to move at the same time and by the same amount. With 10yr yields down 0.03% and mortgage rates unchanged, that clearly wasn’t the case today. So what gives?

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Barely Budge Despite Bond Market Improvement “

Wednesday, June 26, 2019 : 3.85% (+0.06%)
Mortgage rates hadn’t moved much since last Friday–a good thing considering those levels were in line with the lowest levels in a long time. The ground-holding gave way today, however, as the underlying bond market weakened for the first time this week. In turn, mortgage rates quickly find themselves at this week’s highs. But whether or not that means anything too troubling will depend on the lender in question. Most are still able to quote the same interest rate quoted yesterday with only minor differences in upfront costs.

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Pop Up to This Week's Highs”

Thursday, June 27, 2019 : 3.82% (-0.03%)
Mortgage rates rose to the week’s highest levels yesterday, but they moved back down today. Although there have been slightly better days over the past 2 weeks, today’s improvement is enough to keep rates in the best territory since November 2016. For the average lender, this means top tier scenarios continue to see quotes in the high 3% range.

More detail: “Mortgage Rates Edge Lower to Remain in Recent Range”

Friday, June 28, 2019 : 3.81% (-0.01%)
Mortgage rates enjoyed a pleasantly flat week despite some volatility in the underlying bond market. The day-to-day changes in Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed-Securities (MBS) were noticeable, but they all took place inside the range of values seen last Wednesday on Fed day. In other words, the bond market (which dictates rates) digested the Fed’s message and is now waiting for the next shoe to drop. When it does, we’re highly likely to see the current range give way to the next bout of strong momentum.

More detail: “Rates Face Big Volatility Risk Next Week”

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.81% -0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.61% -0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.60% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.87% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.66% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 4.22% 1.43 -0.12
30 Yr. Fixed 4.78% 1.18 -0.20
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.67% 0.00 +0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 -4.00
30 Yr. Jumbo 0.00% 0.00 -4.40
30 Yr. FHA 0.00% 0.00 -4.64
5/1 ARM 0.00% 0.00 -3.95
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.73% 0.50 -0.11
15 Yr. Fixed 3.16% 0.50 -0.09
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.39% 0.40 -0.09

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 100.84 -0.02
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.23 +0.03
30YR GNMA 3.0 102.23 -0.02
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.28 0.00
15YR FNMA 3.0 101.95 +0.02
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.69 +0.03
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 1.7409% -0.0060
5 YR 1.7615% -0.0098
10 YR 2.0051% -0.0089
30 YR 2.5277% -0.0079
Prices as of: 6/28/2019 2:15PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.

© 2019 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031

View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
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Daily Rate Update: Rates Face Big Volatility Risk Next Week

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
3.81% -0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.61% -0.01
10YR Treasury
2.01% -0.0072
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.22 +0.02
FNMA 15YR 2.5
101.94 0.00
View Today’s Rates
Rates Face Big Volatility Risk Next Week
June 28, 2019
Mortgage rates enjoyed a pleasantly flat week despite some volatility in the underlying bond market. The day-to-day changes in Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed-Securities (MBS) were noticeable, but they all took place inside the range of values seen last Wednesday on Fed day. In other words, the bond market (which dictates rates) digested the Fed’s message and is now waiting for the next shoe to drop. When it does, we’re highly likely to see the current range give way to the next bout of strong momentum.

The shoe in question is next week’s economic data. After all, the Fed’s message last week was that it was prepared to cut rates if the economic data justified it. Next week contains several of the most important economic reports in the monthly rotation, including the all-important jobs report. The last jobs number was quite a bit weaker than expected. This will be the market’s (and the Fed’s) chance to find out if that was an anomaly or the beginning of a shift.

In general, stronger than expected economic data would make a case for a bounce toward higher rates. Disappointing data would have the opposite effect. There’s no telling exactly how far either move could run. It would depend, to some extent, on just how far the data is from expectations. Either way, be prepared for a bigger move.

Today’s Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 3.875%
  • FHA/VA – 3.5-3.75%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.75%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 3.625-4.125% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general
  • The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren’t the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response (and even their EXPECTED response) to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.
  • Based on the Fed’s laundry list of concerns, the bond market (which determines rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade-related concerns. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
28?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
28?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.81% -0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.61% -0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.60% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.87% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.66% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 4.22% 1.43 -0.12
30 Yr. Fixed 4.78% 1.18 -0.20
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.67% 0.00 +0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 -4.00
30 Yr. Jumbo 0.00% 0.00 -4.40
30 Yr. FHA 0.00% 0.00 -4.64
5/1 ARM 0.00% 0.00 -3.95
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.73% 0.50 -0.11
15 Yr. Fixed 3.16% 0.50 -0.09
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.39% 0.40 -0.09

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 100.81 -0.05
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.22 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.0 102.20 -0.05
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.28 0.00
15YR FNMA 3.0 101.94 0.00
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.67 +0.02
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 1.7409% -0.0060
5 YR 1.7631% -0.0082
10 YR 2.0068% -0.0072
30 YR 2.5284% -0.0072
Prices as of: 6/28/2019 2:03PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2019 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

Broker, Appraisal Products; Investor Policy and Procedure Changes

Broker, Appraisal Products; Investor Policy and Procedure Changes

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Friday, June 28, 2019 8:21 AM

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VA lenders are talking about the “cap” being removed as the Department of Veterans Affairs can now back loans that exceed the conforming loan limit. President Trump signed the Blue Water Navy Vietnam Veterans Act which allows homebuyers to borrow above the 2019 limit of $484,350 for most counties without any down payment. (The bill revises the VA’s home loan guaranty program to adjust loan fee rates and eliminate the limit on guaranty amount that is based on the Freddie Mac conforming loan limit.) Now if only the industry could do something about closing costs in general. The recent closing cost data showed that in 2018 national average closing costs for a single-family property were $5,779 including taxes, and $3,344 excluding taxes. (ClosingCorp cost calculations include lender’s title, owner’s title, appraisals, settlement fees, recording fees, land surveys and transfer tax.)

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Hope to Avoid Rocking Boat Until Next Week

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Hope to Avoid Rocking Boat Until Next Week

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, June 28, 2019 8:34 AM

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In the day just past, both stocks and bonds showed a greater predisposition to react to trade-related headlines (more so in stocks, but noticeable in bonds as well). This likely has a lot to do with the impending start of the G20 summit and the various headlines surrounding the likelihood of progress in all its various forms. Despite that, bonds went their own way. Yields moved lower throughout the session even as stocks moved higher. This suggests a sideways consolidation trend could be the underlying predisposition ahead of next week’s more significant events.


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