Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 2:03 PM

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Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in MayJune indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity ishas been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending appearshas to have picked up from earlier in the year, indicatorsgrowth of business fixed investment havehas been soft. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of…

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Freddie Mac Sees Low Rates Extending Through 2020

Freddie Mac Sees Low Rates Extending Through 2020

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 10:28 AM

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The housing market has been looking slightly better over the last few month and Freddie Mac July economic report reflects that fact. They also maintain a fairly rosy picture of the economy as a whole. They note that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRM) dipped below 4.0 percent at the end of May and has remained there “amid concerns over trade disputes, a possible economic slowdown, and market anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.” This has caused a spike in mortgage applications for both purchase and refinancing and they predict that low rates, along with a thriving labor market, will help sustain the housing market, not just short term, but for at least the next year and a half.

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MBS Day Ahead: The Fed Rate Cut Has Basically Already Happened

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MBS Day Ahead: The Fed Rate Cut Has Basically Already Happened

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 8:54 AM

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In the day just passed, bonds put in one more day of slow, illiquid summertime trading. Granted, volumes were slightly better than the previous session, but the previous session saw the 2nd lightest volume in more than 3 months. The morning’s economic data brought additional apparent volatility. This was especially evident right after the big beat in Consumer Confidence at 10am, but all of that volatility occurred well within an EXTREMELY narrow range.

In the day ahead, the Fed Announcement at 2pm is clearly the headliner although the morning’s economic data could put…

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CRM, Broker, Sales, Rental Products; Conventional Conforming Trends

CRM, Broker, Sales, Rental Products; Conventional Conforming Trends

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 7:24 AM

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Large investors often shy away from monies that are not in the mainstream banking sector. (Accounts in cryptocurrency jump to mind.) Can you blame them? But plenty of people want to use that money to buy houses and lower the vacancy rate. In Census Bureau news, as if we don’t have enough stats in our lives, the 2018 Housing Vacancy Survey Annual Statistics was released providing vacancy rates, homeownership rates and characteristics of units available for occupancy for the United States, regions, states and the 75 largest metropolitan statistical areas. Homeownership rates were tabulated by age of householder for the United States and regions, and by race/ethnicity of householder and by family status for the United States, with estimates of the total housing inventory and percentage distributions of vacant for-rent and vacant for-sale-only units for the United States and regions.

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Mortgage Application Volume Falls for Fifth Consecutive Week

Mortgage Application Volume Falls for Fifth Consecutive Week

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 4:48 AM

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Mortgage application activity declined for the fifth consecutive period during the week ended July 26. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, decreased 1.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the previous week and was down 1 percent on an unadjusted basis. The Purchase Index was also down, falling by three percent on both a seasonally adjusted and an unadjusted basis. It remained, however, 6 percent higher than during the same week in 2018. Refinancing still showed a little bit of life. That index eked out a gain of 0.1 percent compared to the week ended July 19 and was 84 percent higher than a year earlier.

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Try to be Convincing, But Not Very Well

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Try to be Convincing, But Not Very Well

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Tuesday, July 30, 2019 5:09 PM

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Today had all the trappings of a return to some semblance of volume and volatility for what has otherwise been sleepy summertime bond trading patterns–at least if you were only looking at a 1 or 2 day chart. Zoom out to any wider frame of reference and today quickly gets lost in the ultra narrow range this week, which is simply a slightly tamer version of last week’s ultra narrow, ultra sideways range.

All of this “sideways narrowness” is building toward something. The market won’t ever tell us what that something is with 100% certainty, but in the short term, we know what…

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Daily Newsletter: Stellar Home Sales Report; Home Price Resiliency; Rates Calm Before Storm; What Does it Take?

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dailynewsletter.png
30 Year Fixed
3.88% +0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.57% +0.01
10YR Treasury
2.06% -0.0036
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.31 0.00
FNMA 15YR 2.5
101.86 -0.02
View Today’s Rates
Tuesday July 30, 2019
MND NewsWire – 10:50AM
Stellar Sales Report Reinforces Housing’s Strong Summer
Pending home sales put in an especially strong performance in June , the second consecutive positive report as well as the fourth in five months. The National Association of Realtors® …
MND NewsWire – 10:07AM
Although Gains are Slowing, Prices Show "Resiliency"
The rate of appreciation in home prices slipped again in May according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. The metric, which covers all nine U.S. census …
Mortgage Rate Watch – 4:48PM
Mortgage Rates Stay Calm Before Tomorrow’s (Potential) Storm
Mortgage rates haven’t moved much this week, or last week, or the week before that. In fact, for the average prospective borrower, there haven’t been any major changes since first making …
MBS Commentary – 10:52AM
MBS Day Ahead: What Does it Take to Move Markets These Days?
In the day just passed, bonds drifted through one of those characteristic summertime Mondays without any meaningful liquidity, volume, or volatility. Bonds remained inside their prevailing …

Latest Video


We’re going to start with a small rate cut, Gradient Investments’ Mariann Montagne says

Assume the Fed will cut 25 basis points: Mario Gabelli

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers on trade and the Fed

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.88% +0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.57% +0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.50% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.91% +0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.69% +0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.79% 1.21 -0.12
30 Yr. Fixed 4.39% 1.12 -0.22
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.12% 0.38 +0.08
15 Yr. Fixed 3.48% 0.32 +0.06
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.07% 0.21 +0.04
30 Yr. FHA 4.01% 0.28 +0.04
5/1 ARM 3.58% 0.27 +0.02
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.75% 0.50 -0.06
15 Yr. Fixed 3.18% 0.50 -0.05
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.47% 0.40 -0.01

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 100.77 +0.03
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.31 0.00
30YR GNMA 3.0 102.03 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.47 +0.02
15YR FNMA 3.0 101.86 -0.02
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.44 -0.03
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 1.8479% -0.0080
5 YR 1.8420% -0.0016
10 YR 2.0597% -0.0036
30 YR 2.5805% -0.0109
Prices as of: 7/30/2019 5:05PM EST

23623981

This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2019 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Stay Calm Before Tomorrow’s (Potential) Storm

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
3.88% +0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.57% +0.01
10YR Treasury
2.06% -0.0036
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.31 0.00
FNMA 15YR 2.5
101.86 -0.02
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Stay Calm Before Tomorrow’s (Potential) Storm
July 30, 2019
Mortgage rates haven’t moved much this week, or last week, or the week before that. In fact, for the average prospective borrower, there haven’t been any major changes since first making it down to the multi-year lows in June. That said, there has been enough volatility to matter. Today wasn’t a great example of that, but tomorrow or one of the two days that follows, may be.

In addition to some more significant economic reports coming out in the morning, tomorrow brings the Fed rate decision. To be fair, the Fed’s decision has already been made, best anyone can tell. A 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut is basically guaranteed. That might seem like a good thing for mortgage rates, but the benefits have already been reaped. Tomorrow’s market movement depends more on the economic data and the specifics in the Fed’s verbiage. There will be two opportunities for markets to digest that verbiage tomorrow, first with the announcement at 2pm and then with Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30pm.

Loan Originator Perspective

Bonds hovered near unchanged today, as inflation data came in slightly below expectations and tomorrow’s Fed Statement and employment data loomed large. I doubt Fed will make any unexpected moves, but that doesn’t mean we should let our guards down. I’m locking applications closing in August. –Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Today’s Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 3.875%
  • FHA/VA – 3.625%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.5-3.625%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 3.375-3.75% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general
  • The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren’t the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response (and even their EXPECTED response) to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.
  • Based on the Fed’s laundry list of concerns, the bond market (which determines rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade-related concerns. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.88% +0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.57% +0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.50% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.91% +0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.69% +0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.79% 1.21 -0.12
30 Yr. Fixed 4.39% 1.12 -0.22
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.12% 0.38 +0.08
15 Yr. Fixed 3.48% 0.32 +0.06
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.07% 0.21 +0.04
30 Yr. FHA 4.01% 0.28 +0.04
5/1 ARM 3.58% 0.27 +0.02
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.75% 0.50 -0.06
15 Yr. Fixed 3.18% 0.50 -0.05
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.47% 0.40 -0.01

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 100.77 +0.03
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.31 0.00
30YR GNMA 3.0 102.03 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.47 +0.02
15YR FNMA 3.0 101.86 -0.02
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.44 -0.03
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 1.8479% -0.0080
5 YR 1.8420% -0.0016
10 YR 2.0597% -0.0036
30 YR 2.5805% -0.0109
Prices as of: 7/30/2019 5:05PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2019 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

MBS Day Ahead: What Does it Take to Move Markets These Days?

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MBS Day Ahead: What Does it Take to Move Markets These Days?

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Tuesday, July 30, 2019 10:52 AM

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In the day just passed, bonds drifted through one of those characteristic summertime Mondays without any meaningful liquidity, volume, or volatility. Bonds remained inside their prevailing range. In fact, they were nearly glued to the perfect center of the consolidation pattern of the past 2 months at 2.06-ish. In general, it was an inconsequential day seen as markets way of punting and/or biding time ahead of this week’s more significant events.

In the day ahead, bonds may end up doing exactly the same thing, but with just a bit more feeling. Today at least…

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NAR Calls Home Sales Pace “Breakneck”

NAR Calls Home Sales Pace "Breakneck"

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Tuesday, July 30, 2019 10:11 AM

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Pending home sales put in an especially strong performance in June, the second consecutive positive report as well as the fourth in five months. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on contracts that are signed to purchase existing homes rose 2.8 percent to 108.3 compared to 105.4 in May. The month-over-month gain that month was 1.1 percent. In addition, the contract signing performance in June snapped the PHSI’s 17-month streak of year-over-year losses. The June reading was up 1.6 percent compared to one year earlier.

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