MBS RECAP: Suddenly, Bonds May Be Back in Business

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Posted to: MBS Commentary
Thursday, October 31, 2019 5:59 PM

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Most of the month of October was rotten for the bond market. Material progress on the trade deal, a leveling-off of economic data deterioration, and fears about a major shift in the Fed’s policy stance all did damage (among other things). Now in the past 2 days, we have a slightly less sinister take on the Fed, the trade deal being called into question, and a new cause for concern in one of the “early indicator” economic reports (today’s Chicago PMI).

Overnight gains came swiftly on the trade deal headlines and bonds didn’t seem shy about maintaining the…

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More from MND:

• Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Dropping Like a Rock
• MND NewsWire: Here’s Why Housing Agencies’ Net Worth is Surging
• Pipeline Press: Capital Markets Jobs; Pricing Products; Loan Processing Survey Results
• MBS Commentary: MBS Day Ahead: Why Chicago PMI is More Important Than PCE Inflation
• Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Little-Changed, But Could Improve Tomorrow

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Daily Newsletter: Here’s Why Housing Agencies’ Net Worth is Surging; Mortgage Rates Drop Like a Rock

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30 Year Fixed 3.71% -0.13 15 Year Fixed 3.37% -0.04 10YR Treasury 1.69% -0.0875 FNMA 30YR 3.5 102.69 +0.17 FNMA 15YR 2.5 102.38 +0.17 View Today’s Rates

Thursday October 31, 2019 MND NewsWire – 11:55AM Here’s Why Housing Agencies’ Net Worth is Surging Both of the government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) posted strong earnings in the third quarter of the year. Freddie Mac announced comprehensive income of $1.8 billion while Fannie … Mortgage Rate Watch – 5:10PM Mortgage Rates Dropping Like a Rock Mortgage rates dropped like a rock today . This has absolutely nothing to do with yesterday’s Fed rate cut, a little to do with the market reaction to the verbiage in yesterday’s Fed … Pipeline Press – 9:06AM Capital Markets Jobs; Pricing Products; Loan Processing Survey Results Halloween already! Who wouldn’t want to live in the scary Tombstone, AZ, Sleepy Hollow, NY, Kill Devil Hills, NC, Yellville, AR, Transylvania County, NC, Slaughter Beach, DE, … Millennial Homeownership Inches Higher MBS Day Ahead: Why Chicago PMI is More Important Than PCE Inflation Latest Video Central banks that have negative rates are trapped: Bleakley CIO Trump: China, US working on finding a new location to sign phase one trade deal Chicago October PMI comes in below expectations at 43.2 vs 48.5 estimated More News from ‘Around the Web’ Calculated Risk Blog – 3:12PM October Employment Preview: Take the Under Bloomberg – 1:34PM The Bond Trade of the Year May Be Back, All Thanks to the Fed – Bloomberg Calculated Risk Blog – 1:34PM Q3 2019 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate Reuters – 1:34PM Homes destroyed, hundreds more evacuated as Los Angeles wildfires spread Reuters – 11:26AM Trump blasts Fed after rate cut, says hurting U.S. competitiveness eyeonhousing.org – 10:21AM 55+ Housing Market Ticks Back Up to Record High Calculated Risk Blog – 9:22AM Personal Income increased 0.3% in September, Spending increased 0.2% Calculated Risk Blog – 8:53AM Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 218,000 Bloomberg – 8:33AM China Doubts Long-Term Trade Deal Possible With Trump Bloomberg – 8:10AM Fed Cutting Again Would Be Recession Signal: Authers’ Newsletter Bloomberg – 8:08AM Bond Market Signals Doubt Fed Has Shut Door on Further Rate Cuts Today’s Rates Best Execution Rate Change Current Mortgage Rates » What are best-execution rates? 30 Yr FRM 3.71% -0.13 15 Yr FRM 3.37% -0.04 FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.37% -0.03 Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.79% -0.07 5/1 Yr ARM 3.40% -0.06 Average Mortgage Rates Rate Points Change FHFA * 15 Yr. Fixed 3.79% 1.21 -0.12 30 Yr. Fixed 4.39% 1.12 -0.22 MBA ** 30 Yr. Fixed 4.05% 0.37 +0.03 15 Yr. Fixed 3.40% 0.36 +0.01 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.01% 0.30 +0.05 30 Yr. FHA 3.83% 0.28 +0.04 5/1 ARM 3.43% 0.23 +0.14 Freddie Mac ** Current Mortgage Rates » * FHFA averages are updated monthly. ** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly. 30 Yr. Fixed 3.78% 0.50 +0.03 15 Yr. Fixed 3.19% 0.60 +0.01 1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01 5/1 Yr. ARM 3.43% 0.40 +0.03 Secondary Markets MBS Price Change 30YR FNMA 3.0 101.61 +0.28 30YR FNMA 3.5 102.69 +0.17 30YR GNMA 3.0 102.98 +0.38 30YR GNMA 3.5 104.22 +0.36 15YR FNMA 3.0 102.38 +0.17 15YR FNMA 2.5 101.08 +0.27 Treasuries Yield Change Current MBS / Treasury Prices » MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters. Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information. Secondary Marketing Managers: If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information 2 YR 1.5259% -0.0757 5 YR 1.5179% -0.0898 10 YR 1.6875% -0.0875 30 YR 2.1734% -0.0838 Prices as of: 10/31/2019 5:05PM EST

This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice. © 2019 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved. Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031

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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Dropping Like a Rock

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30 Year Fixed 3.71% -0.13 15 Year Fixed 3.37% -0.04 10YR Treasury 1.69% -0.0875 FNMA 30YR 3.5 102.69 +0.17 FNMA 15YR 2.5 102.38 +0.17 View Today’s Rates

Mortgage Rates Dropping Like a Rock October 31, 2019 Mortgage rates dropped like a rock today. This has absolutely nothing to do with yesterday’s Fed rate cut, a little to do with the market reaction to the verbiage in yesterday’s Fed announcement, and a lot to do with today’s new developments. Chinese officials were cited as questioning the viability of the much-touted trade deal overnight. The trade deal is important to financial markets because it’s thought to be an easy way to increase global economic growth–something that is typically bad for rates. As such, the questioning of the deal was good for rates. On top of that, there was also an exceptionally weaker economic report out this morning–one that’s often seen as a bit of an advance indicator of several other important reports coming out in the next 3 business days. The bond market continued to rally (i.e. yields moved lower) after that. Ultimately, mortgage lenders had seen enough to adjust rate sheets for the better. Combine that with the fact that many lenders didn’t adjust yesterday’s rate to reflect late day market improvement and the shift was massive. Th average lender is at least an eighth of a percentage point lower than they were yesterday, and that’s about as big as day over day changes get, outside of extreme cases. Loan Originator Perspective I definitely favor floating right now. Bonds have managed a decent rally over the last couple days. As is usual, when bonds rally, lenders tend to be slow to pass along the gains. –Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage Today’s Most Prevalent Rates 30YR FIXED -3.625-3.75% FHA/VA – 3.375% 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.375% 5 YEAR ARMS – 3.25-3.75% depending on the lender Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations 2019 has been the best year for mortgage rates since 2011. Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections Fed policy and the US/China trade war have been key players. Major updates on either front could cause a volatile reaction in rates The Fed and the bond market (which dictates rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade war updates. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows. Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration. 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Co-branding this Report Enable co-branding to personalize this report with your business information here. Learn more about co-branding with NO competitor ads. Today’s Rates Best Execution Rate Change Current Mortgage Rates » What are best-execution rates? 30 Yr FRM 3.71% -0.13 15 Yr FRM 3.37% -0.04 FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.37% -0.03 Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.79% -0.07 5/1 Yr ARM 3.40% -0.06 Average Mortgage Rates Rate Points Change FHFA * 15 Yr. Fixed 3.79% 1.21 -0.12 30 Yr. Fixed 4.39% 1.12 -0.22 MBA ** 30 Yr. Fixed 4.05% 0.37 +0.03 15 Yr. Fixed 3.40% 0.36 +0.01 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.01% 0.30 +0.05 30 Yr. FHA 3.83% 0.28 +0.04 5/1 ARM 3.43% 0.23 +0.14 Freddie Mac ** Current Mortgage Rates » * FHFA averages are updated monthly. ** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly. 30 Yr. Fixed 3.78% 0.50 +0.03 15 Yr. Fixed 3.19% 0.60 +0.01 1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01 5/1 Yr. ARM 3.43% 0.40 +0.03 Secondary Markets MBS Price Change 30YR FNMA 3.0 101.61 +0.28 30YR FNMA 3.5 102.69 +0.17 30YR GNMA 3.0 102.98 +0.38 30YR GNMA 3.5 104.22 +0.36 15YR FNMA 3.0 102.38 +0.17 15YR FNMA 2.5 101.08 +0.27 Treasuries Yield Change Current MBS / Treasury Prices » MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters. Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information. Secondary Marketing Managers: If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information 2 YR 1.5259% -0.0757 5 YR 1.5179% -0.0898 10 YR 1.6875% -0.0875 30 YR 2.1734% -0.0838 Prices as of: 10/31/2019 5:05PM EST

About This Report Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.

© 2019 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved. Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice. You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

Here’s Why Housing Agencies’ Net Worth is Surging

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Thursday, October 31, 2019 11:34 AM

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Both of the government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) posted strong earnings in the third quarter of the year. Freddie Mac announced comprehensive income of $1.8 billion while Fannie Mae’s was $4.0 billion. Freddie Mac said its income was essentially unchanged from Q2 but lower than the $2.56 billion reported in the third quarter of 2018. The company had $2.79 billion in net revenue, $2.41 of which was interest income. This was down from $2.93 billion and $3.36 billion in the previous quarter and 3.55 billion and $3.26 billion a year earlier. Market-related losses were $0.3 billion, driven by a $0.4 billion loss from net interest rate impacts resulting from declining long-term interest rates. These losses were partially offset by a $0.1 billion gain from market spread impacts.

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More from MND:

• Pipeline Press: Capital Markets Jobs; Pricing Products; Loan Processing Survey Results
• MBS Commentary: MBS Day Ahead: Why Chicago PMI is More Important Than PCE Inflation
• Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Little-Changed, But Could Improve Tomorrow
• MBS Commentary: Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements
• MND NewsWire: Millennial Homeownership Inches Higher

If you have trouble viewing this email, you can read the full post at http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/10312019_gse_financial_results.asp

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Capital Markets Jobs; Pricing Products; Loan Processing Survey Results

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Thursday, October 31, 2019 8:39 AM

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Halloween already! Who wouldn’t want to live in the scary Tombstone, AZ, Sleepy Hollow, NY, Kill Devil Hills, NC, Yellville, AR, Transylvania County, NC, Slaughter Beach, DE, Casper, WY, or Scarville, IA? What is also scary for many is that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is considering relaxing post-crisis structured mortgage product rules. Many industry vets are rightfully worried about guideline erosion in the primary markets, likening it to watching a “slow motion train wreck” and “sliding back down the curve.” In the secondary markets, are disclosure rules discouraging firms from issuing SEC-registered residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)? Feel free to submit comments.

(READ THE FULL POST)

More from MND:

• MBS Commentary: MBS Day Ahead: Why Chicago PMI is More Important Than PCE Inflation
• Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Little-Changed, But Could Improve Tomorrow
• MBS Commentary: Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements
• MND NewsWire: Millennial Homeownership Inches Higher
• MBS Commentary: MBS Day Ahead: Big Clues About Bonds’ Pre-Fed Stance in Futures

If you have trouble viewing this email, you can read the full post at http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/pipelinepress/10312019-loan-processing.aspx

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MBS Day Ahead: Why Chicago PMI is More Important Than PCE Inflation

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Posted to: MBS Commentary
Thursday, October 31, 2019 8:35 AM

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Chicago PMI isn’t always more important that PCE inflation. After all Core PCE is the Fed’s favorite big-picture inflation reading (the thing they want to see at 2.0%) and inflation is one of the key motivations for hiking/cutting the Fed’s policy rate. In fact, just yesterday, Powell told reporters that the only real reason the Fed would have to move the policy rate at this point would be a substantial change in inflation.

Powell also told reporters the committee (that’s the Federal Open Market Committee aka FOMC) doesn’t see much of a chance of inflation increasing in a…

(READ THE FULL POST)

More from MND:

• Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Little-Changed, But Could Improve Tomorrow
• MBS Commentary: Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements
• MND NewsWire: Millennial Homeownership Inches Higher
• MBS Commentary: MBS Day Ahead: Big Clues About Bonds’ Pre-Fed Stance in Futures
• Pipeline Press: Non-QM, Broker Products; Training and Events Coast to Coast

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Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 2:02 PM

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Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in JulySeptember indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending has been rising at a strong pace, business fixed investment and exports haveremain weakenedweak. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low;…

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More from MND:

• MND NewsWire: Millennial Homeownership Inches Higher
• MBS Commentary: MBS Day Ahead: Big Clues About Bonds’ Pre-Fed Stance in Futures
• Pipeline Press: Non-QM, Broker Products; Training and Events Coast to Coast
• MND NewsWire: Originations Headed for Best Post-Recession Year
• MND NewsWire: Volume Steady as Rates Rise to 3-Month High

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