Daily Newsletter: Mortgage Rates Pummeled By Regulatory Drama; MBA Predicts Home Sales Surge

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30 Year Fixed
3.08% +0.16
15 Year Fixed
2.55% +0.14
10YR Treasury
0.72% +0.0444
FNMA 30YR 3.5
105.30 -0.02
FNMA 15YR 2.5
104.80 -0.14
View Today’s Rates
Thursday August 13, 2020
Mortgage Rate Watch – 6:04PM
Mortgage Rates Pummeled By Regulatory Drama
At face value, the bonds that underlie the mortgage market didn’t sustain too much damage today. If there was nothing else to inspire lender rate changes, we might not be too much worse …
MBS Commentary – 12:14PM
MBS Day Ahead: Mega Recap of New Refi Fee and a Call to Action
This began as my normal daily “day ahead” article, but as you can see based on the time of day and the following content, it turned into something else. Apologies for the break from …
MND NewsWire – 12:14PM
MBA Predicts New Home Sales Surge in July
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is predicting another strong month for new home sales. The association says its Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for July 2020 shows mortgage …
MND NewsWire – 8:15AM
What Pandemic? Home Prices Continue Gains in Q2
Home prices continued to rise during the second quarter of the year, although at a slower pace than before the advent of the pandemic. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR …

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.08% +0.16
15 Yr FRM 2.55% +0.14
FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.50% +0.12
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.65% +0.07
5/1 Yr ARM 3.00% +0.25

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
30 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 3.06% 0.33 -0.08
15 Yr. Fixed 2.67% 0.35 -0.06
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.40% 0.31 -0.11
30 Yr. FHA 3.23% 0.33 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.00% 0.30 -0.09
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 2.96% 0.80 +0.08
15 Yr. Fixed 2.46% 0.80 +0.02
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 2.90% 0.40 +0.00

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR UMBS 3.0 105.30 -0.09
30YR UMBS 3.5 105.30 -0.02
30YR GNMA 3.0 105.30 -0.05
30YR GNMA 3.5 104.95 -0.03
15YR UMBS 3.0 104.80 -0.14
15YR UMBS 2.5 104.64 -0.28
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 0.1649% +0.0040
5 YR 0.3199% +0.0366
10 YR 0.7175% +0.0444
30 YR 1.4244% +0.0558
Prices as of: 8/13/2020 5:05PM EST

23623981

This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2020 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Pummeled By Regulatory Drama

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
3.08% +0.16
15 Year Fixed
2.55% +0.14
10YR Treasury
0.72% +0.0444
FNMA 30YR 3.5
105.30 -0.02
FNMA 15YR 2.5
104.80 -0.14
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Pummeled By Regulatory Drama
August 13, 2020
At face value, the bonds that underlie the mortgage market didn’t sustain too much damage today. If there was nothing else to inspire lender rate changes, we might not be too much worse vs yesterday. Unfortunately, there is an absolutely massive source of motivation that unexpectedly burst on the scene last night. If you’re not already up to speed on it, READ THIS.

As far as today is concerned, rates got torched. This is no surprise. Regulators just instantly doubled to fees they charge to provide guarantees for the mortgage market. Lenders will be forced to pay those fees on all loans that are already locked. Consumers will foot the bill for everything else.

Strikingly, the pull-back from lenders is much bigger than the 0.5 points imposed by the GSEs because of the way the announcement was rolled out. Mortgage lenders don’t like surprises, and they don’t like suddenly being forced to pay hundreds of millions of dollars they hadn’t budgeted for. When that happens, they are going to raise rates to offset the newfound losses. And that’s exactly what they did.

The average lender is quoting a conventional 30yr fixed rate that’s 0.25% higher today than it was yesterday morning. Ironically, this applies to both refis and purchases, even though the regulatory change only applied to refis. Why is that? The move by regulators was so abrupt that not every lender was able to implement it as a refi-specific upfront fee today. Instead, lenders simply raised costs across the board with the intent of sorting things out tomorrow (hopefully). Theoretically that means rates or purchases should come down relative to refis for those lenders, but we nonetheless expect the whole ordeal to have created lasting damage to mortgage rates well in excess of the 0.5 points regulators intended. Had they gone about this in a more even-keeled manner, and given the industry time to adjust, consumers wouldn’t be paying nearly as high of a price.

So is 0.5 points a big deal in the bigger picture? Yes and no. It’s 20 bucks a month on an average loan of roughly $300k. But again, it’s much more than 0.5pts today. Most borrowers are seeing a $40/month difference.

Even then, examining financial impact in terms of monthly payment is an old car dealer trick to get you to care less about generating more profit for the dealer. Let’s talk about it in terms of its present value. We can do that. After all, I got the $20/month thing by looking at the difference in monthly payments created by paying an extra 0.5 points upfront. In fact, you can opt to pay the 0.5 points upfront and not be penalized with a higher rate. 0.5 points upfront on a $300k loan is $1500. Is it a big deal if someone unexpectedly takes $1500 out of your pocket? And remember, the whole industry just recoiled in defensively priced fear such that the fee is at least equal to 1.0 point (aka $3000 out of your pocket).

Bottom line: don’t let anyone tell you this isn’t a big deal or that it doesn’t matter or that it’s a drop in the bucket in the bigger picture. All of that could be true to someone on the outside looking in. But if you had a loan in process that wasn’t locked or if you are in a position to save money by refinancing and just haven’t gotten around to it yet, the government just vacuumed $3000 out of your purse/wallet. In a perfect world, that $3000 will slowly shrink back down to $1500, but as it stands right now, it will never be any less than $1500.

In the government’s defense, they could absolutely need that $1500 in order to defend the sound functioning of the mortgage market. If that’s truly the case, then there was a far calmer and more gradual way to go about this–one that wouldn’t have forced consumers to pay more than twice as much as intended and one that wouldn’t have inadvertently hit the purchase market as well.

Bottom line for consumers reading this: yes, your mortgage quote just got way more expensive today if it wasn’t locked by Wednesday afternoon. It has nothing to do with your lender and there’s nothing your lender can do about it. Your options will likely be to opt for a rate that’s .125-0.25 higher than what you were planning on or to simply pay higher costs upfront. The third option carries some risk, but also some potential reward, and that would be to wait to see if things calm down in the coming days. There’s also a very low chance that this decision could be retracted and re-implemented with a healthier delay, but I wouldn’t count those chickens.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
13?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
13?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.08% +0.16
15 Yr FRM 2.55% +0.14
FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.50% +0.12
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.65% +0.07
5/1 Yr ARM 3.00% +0.25

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
30 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 3.06% 0.33 -0.08
15 Yr. Fixed 2.67% 0.35 -0.06
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.40% 0.31 -0.11
30 Yr. FHA 3.23% 0.33 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.00% 0.30 -0.09
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 2.96% 0.80 +0.08
15 Yr. Fixed 2.46% 0.80 +0.02
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 2.90% 0.40 +0.00

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR UMBS 3.0 105.30 -0.09
30YR UMBS 3.5 105.30 -0.02
30YR GNMA 3.0 105.30 -0.05
30YR GNMA 3.5 104.95 -0.03
15YR UMBS 3.0 104.80 -0.14
15YR UMBS 2.5 104.64 -0.28
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 0.1649% +0.0040
5 YR 0.3199% +0.0366
10 YR 0.7175% +0.0444
30 YR 1.4244% +0.0558
Prices as of: 8/13/2020 5:05PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2020 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

MBS RECAP: Mortgage Market Rocked by Instant Doubling of Regulatory Fees

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MBS RECAP: Mortgage Market Rocked by Instant Doubling of Regulatory Fees

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Thursday, August 13, 2020 5:42 PM

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Mortgage Market Rocked by Instant Doubling of Regulatory Fees

Consider this: the average guaranty fee (charged by Fannie/Freddie to ensure timely payments to investors), including upfront LLPAs and the ongoing fees built into monthly payments netted the agencies roughly 48bps in Q2. In one abrupt announcement last night, they added 50bps for refis, more than doubling their take. Purchases got caught in the crossfire. It’s a big mess for the…

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MBS Day Ahead: Mega Recap of New Refi Fee and a Call to Action

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MBS Day Ahead: Mega Recap of New Refi Fee and a Call to Action

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Thursday, August 13, 2020 12:14 PM

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This began as my normal daily “day ahead” article, but as you can see based on the time of day and the following content, it turned into something else. Apologies for the break from the norm, but we have bigger fish to fry at the moment. Why? In a word: because of this.

This has instantly created a very big mess in the mortgage market, and a ton of anger–justifiably so! For those that aren’t going to click the link above or who don’t really understand it, let’s break it down in even shorter, simpler terms.

  • The FHFA announced a new hit on all conventional …

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MBA Predicts New Home Sales Surge in July

MBA Predicts New Home Sales Surge in July

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Thursday, August 13, 2020 12:01 PM

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The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is predicting another strong month for new home sales. The association says its Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for July 2020 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 39 percent compared to a year ago and is up 1 percent compared to June. This would be the second consecutive month of annual increases. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns. Based on these results, as well as assumptions regarding market coverage and other factors, MBA estimates new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 890,000 units in July. This is 15 percent higher than their June pace of 774,000. On an unadjusted basis, MBA estimates that there were 72,000 new home sales in July 2020, an increase of 1.4 percent from 71,000 new home sales in June.

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Appraisal, Valuation, Sales Tools; Training; 50 bp Refi hit and Other Agency Updates

Appraisal, Valuation, Sales Tools; Training; 50 bp Refi hit and Other Agency Updates

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Thursday, August 13, 2020 8:37 AM

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Follow the money! The “talking heads” are analyzing the fact that President Donald Trump donated $6,000 to Kamala Harris’ 2014 campaign for reelection as California attorney general, and that she in turn donated the money to a non-profit that advocates for civil and human rights for Central Americans. And we have nearly three months to go! Stuff like that is a lot more fun to talk about than the 50-basis point price change that Fannie and Freddie instituted due to “higher risk and costs” on refis. Not on purchases, mind you. This from Freddie, who earned $1.8 billion last quarter, and Fannie, who earned $2.5 billion. Is this how the GSEs help struggling homeowners? The MBA weighed in. Some attribute the changes to Director Calabria’s desire to recapitalize the GSEs, desire to capture some of the great margins being enjoyed by originators, to balance out some of the cash window pricing gains seen in recent weeks, or the continued shift in discouraging certain types of products, there’s nothing like a price change to increase or decrease the flow of business. In other money news, digital lending platform Blend announced it raised $75 million in funding in a Series F round led by Canapi Ventures, bringing the company’s valuation to nearly $1.7 billion. Anyone want to buy a simple, humble daily commentary with a joke at the end put out by an old capital markets guy?

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What Pandemic? Home Prices Continue Gains in Q2

What Pandemic? Home Prices Continue Gains in Q2

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, August 12, 2020 10:06 AM

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Home prices continued to rise during the second quarter of the year, although at a slower pace than before the advent of the pandemic. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its quarterly survey of metropolitan areas found that single-family home prices rose on an annual basis in 96 percent or 174 of the 181 markets it covers. Prices increased in 96 percent of the markets in the first quarter of the year as well. However, in those pre-coronavirus days the gain was 7.7 percent year-over-year. In the second quarter, prices were up 4.2 percent to a national median of $291,300. “Home prices have held up well, largely due to the combination of very strong demand for housing and a limited supply of homes for sale,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “Historically-low inventory continues to reinforce and even increase prices in some areas.”

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Surprise Announcement From FHFA Just Made Your Refi Much More Expensive

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Surprise Announcement From FHFA Just Made Your Refi Much More Expensive

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, August 12, 2020 8:47 PM

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In what can only be described as a cash grab, Fannie and Freddie’s regulator just announced a new tax on refinances. Granted, it’s not technically a tax, and it wasn’t probably even intended to hit the pocketbooks of the American homeowner, but that’s unfortunately exactly what it will do. Let’s break it down…

What was announced?

The FHFA, Fannie and Freddie’s regulator, is implementing a new price adjustment for all refinance transactions of 0.5% of the loan amount (i.e. $1500 on a $300k loan). This applies to loans delivered to Fannie/Freddie in September and…

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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Move Higher Again, And They Might Not Be Done

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
2.92% +0.04
15 Year Fixed
2.41% +0.03
10YR Treasury
0.67% +0.0299
FNMA 30YR 3.5
105.31 -0.08
FNMA 15YR 2.5
104.94 -0.03
View Today’s Rates
fanniemae.png
Mortgage Rates Move Higher Again, And They Might Not Be Done
August 12, 2020
Mortgage rates jumped yesterday at the fastest pace in more than 2 months. While that isn’t necessarily the end of the world when a 30yr fixed can still be had in the high 2% range, it wasn’t fun for those with loans in process. Today wasn’t great either. While the pace of upward movement slowed considerably, rates moved higher yet again today, bringing the average lender to the worst levels in almost exactly a month.

While there’s never any way to know where rates will be at any given point in the future, we do know that this week represents a clear break from the trend seen during the previous 2 months. From early June through early August, mortgage rates moved lower at an incredibly calm and consistent pace, hitting multiple record lows in the process. Yesterday was the first major push back in the other direction. When that happens, it’s typically not safe to assume a quick return to the previous trend.

In other words, we’re in “wait and see” mode now. Rates were doing one thing very reliably until this week. Now they’ve raised their hands and they have something to say. It may rock the boat. It may not. Either way, we’ll know more and more in the coming days.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
12?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
12?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 2.92% +0.04
15 Yr FRM 2.41% +0.03
FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.38% +0.13
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.58% +0.03
5/1 Yr ARM 2.75% +0.00

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
30 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 3.06% 0.33 -0.08
15 Yr. Fixed 2.67% 0.35 -0.06
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.40% 0.31 -0.11
30 Yr. FHA 3.23% 0.33 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.00% 0.30 -0.09
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 2.88% 0.80 -0.11
15 Yr. Fixed 2.44% 0.80 -0.07
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 2.90% 0.40 -0.04

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR UMBS 3.0 105.39 -0.14
30YR UMBS 3.5 105.31 -0.08
30YR GNMA 3.0 105.34 -0.05
30YR GNMA 3.5 104.98 -0.06
15YR UMBS 3.0 104.94 -0.03
15YR UMBS 2.5 104.92 -0.11
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 0.1609% +0.0080
5 YR 0.2992% +0.0223
10 YR 0.6731% +0.0299
30 YR 1.3686% +0.0376
Prices as of: 8/12/2020 5:06PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2020 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
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MBS RECAP: Why Are MBS Unchanged if Charts Don’t Look That Way

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MBS RECAP: Why Are MBS Unchanged if Charts Don’t Look That Way

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, August 12, 2020 3:33 PM

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Bond Market Breakout is Here (The Bad One)

For days–and especially since last Friday–we’ve been increasingly worried that the 2-month bond rally was running out of steam and at risk of a reversal. The jury was technically out until all of our overhead ceilings were taken out. As of today, they are.

Econ Data / Events

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