MBS Day Ahead: Moving Averages Suck (And Other Thoughts to Kick Off The Week)

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MBS Day Ahead: Moving Averages Suck (And Other Thoughts to Kick Off The Week)

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Tuesday, October 15, 2019 10:05 AM

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Last week brought a bit of a bumpy ride for bond markets with trade-related news accounting for most of the drama. Things were more uneventful on the first 3 days of the week, but Thursday and Friday saw yields threaten to resume the sort of uptrend seen at the beginning of September.

With the overall rally trend closing in on its first birthday and with the total drop in 10yr yields being roughly 175bps as of last Monday (3.26% in late 2018 to 1.51%), every time selling pressure picks up in a noticeable way for more than a day, it forces us to consider the mortality of that…

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Marketing, POS, Appraisal Products; Non-QM Company and Product News

Marketing, POS, Appraisal Products; Non-QM Company and Product News

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Tuesday, October 15, 2019 8:19 AM

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Scholars disagree on how much sleep we need, what time is the best time to wake up, and what time to go to work. But then again, scholars disagree on everything. Being a capital markets person on the West Coast is not easy, with most rising between 4 and 5AM and at their desks by 5 or 6 AM. This was really a convoluted way of working in the news that in California the Governor has signed a law mandating a later (8AM) start time at public elementary schools, 8:30 for high schools. What the heck? “Shifting to a later start time will improve academic performance and save lives because it helps our children be healthier.” Couldn’t they just go to bed a little earlier? Speaking of nocturnal patterns, most of the U.S. doesn’t change their clocks back an hour until November 3. I’ll save the daylight savings rant for another day.

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Characteristics of First Time Buyers Differ by Age

Characteristics of First Time Buyers Differ by Age

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Monday, October 14, 2019 10:29 AM

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The typical first-time homebuyer may not be who you think he or she is. A new report from Zillow says that rather than the young shopper eager to become a homeowner but worried about qualifying for a mortgage, nearly a third of today’s buyers are over the age of 40 and have a “ton of buying power.” They are confident about their finances and might even pay cash for their homes. Older first-time homebuyers have lower incomes (a median of $57,500) than the younger cohort ($72,500) but they told the Zillow surveyors they were not particularly concerned about qualifying for a mortgage and indeed they needn’t have been.

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Inventory Issues Highlight Downside of Lower Rates

Inventory Issues Highlight Downside of Lower Rates

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Sunday, October 13, 2019 3:58 PM

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While declining interest rates are generally viewed as good news for consumers, they aren’t without their negatives. Realtor.com’s September housing trend report released last week highlights one of them. Inventories of available homes, which had been recovering from months of record low numbers, have begun to shrink again. Even worse for first-time buyers, the decline is hitting hardest within the lowest price tier.

Overall inventory was down 2.5 on an annual basis compared to a 1.8 percent annual decline in August, but entry level homes, those priced under $200,000, continued a decline that started in May of 2014. The supply of homes in that tier for sale in that category declined by 9.8 percent in September.

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MBS RECAP: Traders Trading Trade (Deal)

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MBS RECAP: Traders Trading Trade (Deal)

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, October 11, 2019 6:11 PM

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With the exception of the wee hours yesterday morning, the past 2 days have been all about the trade deal. Markets knew Trump and the Chinese vice premier would be meeting this afternoon and they increasingly believed some sort of trade announcement was likely. In fact, both stocks and bonds did such a good job getting ahead of such a thing that they moved in counter-intuitive directions as soon as it was announced. You know… buy the rumor, sell the news, and all that…

While you know I’d be the first in line to say too many words about something that happens in…

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MBS Day Ahead: Another Correction is Underway. How Long Will It Last?

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MBS Day Ahead: Another Correction is Underway. How Long Will It Last?

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, October 11, 2019 9:00 AM

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Yesterday brought an abrupt confirmation of a bounce in bonds. For 10yr Treasury yields, the scene of the bounce was 1.51% earlier in the week. Multiple attempts to move lower failed, but yields stayed close enough to try for 4 straight days. Things began to change on Wednesday as bonds began to weaken just slightly. Even then, they day’s weakest levels weren’t any worse than those seen on the previous day. It fell to yesterday, then, to not only break the little sideways range (1.51-1.59), but to crush it.

The bounce validates the bigger-picture…

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Vacation Homes Paved the Way to Greater Household Wealth

Vacation Homes Paved the Way to Greater Household Wealth

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Thursday, October 10, 2019 12:07 PM

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While home prices have surged back from their housing crisis lows, a report from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) says homes purchased as vacation properties have appreciated even more. NAR’s 2019 Vacation Home Counties Report says that over the five years that ended in 2018, existing and new home prices gained an aggregate of 31 percent while the median price of a second home rose 36 percent. NAR found the areas with the greatest increases over the five-year span were in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Massachusetts. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says the present figures are telling, especially when compared to data from 10 years prior. “As of 2018, household net worth reached an all-time high of $100.3 trillion – that’s nearly double from a decade ago when wealth declined during the recession. Some of this tremendous growth in wealth, although concentrated, increased demand for vacation homes.”

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