Daily Newsletter: Fed Includes Mortgage Rates in Policy Statement; Eminent Domain is Here; Refi and Purchase Apps Fall; Rates Hold After Volatile Day

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30 Year Fixed

4.48%   +0.00

15 Year Fixed

3.67%   +0.00

10YR Treasury

2.59%   -0.0187

FNMA 30YR 3.5

100.84   +0.19

FNMA 15YR 2.5

102.86   +0.14

Wednesday July 31, 2013
MBS Commentary – 5:49PM
MBS Live : MBS Afternoon Market Summary The Fed is to be applauded for mentioning mortgage rates in today’s official Announcement in an unprecedented way. While the Fed is the very …
MND NewsWire – 10:22AM
Months after other cities quietly dropped similar plans the city of Richmond, California yesterday quietly moved to buy 624 residential mortgages in its low income neighborhoods, possibly …
MND NewsWire – 9:00AM
Refinancing continued its slide during the week ended July 26 and mortgage application volume overall declined the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said this morning. MBA reported …
Mortgage Rate Watch – 4:56PM
Mortgage rates are deceptively unchanged here at the end of the trading day, but that was far from the case this morning. Rates were significantly higher earlier today rising from yesterday …
MND NewsWire – 2:20PM

“maybe it is just me, but i’m up to my eyebrows with “enhancements’, “improvements”, suggestions and mandates by a congress that is unable to tie their shoes. I say leave FHA alone, seems they are pretty good at balancing their books over the past 80+years, certainly better than most of our government…”

MBS Live Chat – 3:14PM

“we rarely re-price for the better this late in the day but got one today….”

“Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities; delicious Ding Dongs; survival gear for apocalypse created by rising rates ^^^^^ I’ll take that as my winning statement…”

Today’s Rates
Best Execution
Rate Change
30 Yr FRM 4.48% +0.00
15 Yr FRM 3.67% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.25% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.52% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.25% +0.00
Average Mortgage Rates
Rate Points Change
FHFA *
15 Yr. Fixed 2.80% 1.17 -0.23
30 Yr. Fixed 3.58% 1.37 -0.19
MBA **
30 Yr. Fixed 4.58% 0.38 +0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 3.67% 0.40 +0.04
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.64% 0.39 -0.02
30 Yr. FHA 4.30% 0.31 +0.02
5/1 ARM 3.39% 0.40 +0.09
Freddie Mac **
30 Yr. Fixed 4.31% 0.80 -0.06
15 Yr. Fixed 3.39% 0.80 -0.02
1 Yr. ARM 2.65% 0.40 -0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.16% 0.70 -0.01
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
Secondary Markets
MBS
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 97.03 +0.28
30YR FNMA 3.5 100.84 +0.19
30YR GNMA 3.0 97.97 +0.31
30YR GNMA 3.5 101.84 +0.28
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.86 +0.14
15YR FNMA 2.5 99.89 +0.19
Treasuries
Yield Change
2 YR 0.3128% -0.0039
5 YR 1.3864% -0.0016
10 YR 2.5857% -0.0187
30 YR 3.6429% -0.0267
Prices as of: 7/31/2013 4:30PM EST
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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Daily Rate Update: Volatile Day Leaves Rates Unchanged

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30 Year Fixed

4.48%   +0.00

15 Year Fixed

3.67%   +0.00

10YR Treasury

2.59%   -0.0187

FNMA 30YR 3.5

100.84   +0.19

FNMA 15YR 2.5

102.86   +0.14

Volatile Day Leaves Mortgage Rates Largely Unchanged
July 31, 2013

Mortgage rates are deceptively unchanged here at the end of the trading day, but that was far from the case this morning.  Rates were significantly higher earlier today rising from yesterday’s levels at their fastest pace of the week after stronger-than-expected economic data.  The Fed statement in the afternoon had the opposite and more than equally-sized effect.  Many lenders are now in slightly better territory than they were at the end of the day yesterday.  Conventional 30yr Fixed best-execution rates remain at 4.5 percent and paying points to move to 4.25% continues to be a viable option depending on the scenario and personal preference

Volatility was in the cards today and we certainly got it.  In fact, this was the biggest move lower and higher in the same day that we’ve seen since June 6th, and one of only several days to exhibit the same sort of reversal this year.  In this sense, thinking about rates as “unchanged” is potentially dangerous inasmuch as it suggests today’s events didn’t deliver on their promise of volatility when in fact, they did, and in spades.  If anything, the return to unchanged levels places even more emphasis on Friday’s employment numbers, which can still have a major positive or negative impact.

Loan Originator Perspectives

“Great post-Fed rally to help rates today, but I remain skeptical that the MBS rally can hold as the economy and housing improves. Lock these dips.” –Julian Hebron, Branch Manager, RPM Mortgage

“Borrowers and originators breathed a momentary sigh of relief this PM as a dovish Fed statement made no mention of imminent Fed purchase tapering. We gained 100 bps from AM lows to press time highs, and lender pricing improvements were frequent and widespread. All eyes now turn to Friday’s jobs report, but MBS dodged today’s bullet, will hope they’re equally successful the rest of the week.” –Ted Rood, Senior Originator, Wintrust Mortgage

“Roller coaster day. Weakness this morning led to worse pricing, but a post FOMC rally has led to reprices better. Of course, lenders haven’t passed along the gains, taking away much more this morning than they passed along later. I favor floating over night to allow lenders time to pass along the gains. Friday brings us the jobs report. It is a high impact report and could definitely drive rates higher or lower. So lock or float tomorrow based on what you think will happen Friday.” –Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

“Quite a ride today with a big jump in rates after the ADP report and GDP numbers and then the big turn around after the FED announcement. Glad I did not lock prior to the 2 pm excitement. Hard to say that Friday’s NFP report won’t undue all of today’s reversal. A big miss would help our momentum, but a big upside surprise would slam on the brakes in a hurry. Pricing is still the best in a while so locking before Friday is not a bad call and probably wise.” –Mike Owens, Partner, Horizon Financial Inc.

“I spoke with one of my clients who entered his lock window today. I explained to him that the FOMC minutes would be released at 2pm and that I would watch the market for him. He gave me the go-ahead to preemptively lock if the market worsened. Fortunately, the Fed’s guidance was helpful to float another day or at least until late day re-pricings occur, which many did. Strategy over the past few weeks has been very much defensive. That will not change tomorrow in advance of non-Farm payroll and unemployment reports, released on Friday.” –Matt Hodges, Charlottesville Sales Manager, Presidential Mortgage Group

“Today worked out to be a victory for all hoping for lower rates to hang on, even if for one more day. This mornings economic data was enough to send treasuries and MBS into a semi free-fall with fear of this afternoon’s FED minutes to further the bloodshed. It was quite refreshing to see that the release was a bit dovish and added a few new words, even if the language didn’t change it appeared that the FED maybe watching mortgage rates a bit closer than we thought previously. Nonetheless, Friday is the title holder and reigns supreme, and until then we must remain defensive. When the tide turns we will all know, and for now the outlook is that mortgage rates will continue to rise. Lock’em up!.” –Constantine Floropoulos, Quontic Bank

“After a rough start the day ended well with positive repricing. The question is will 4.5% be the top of the range or the bottom after the jobs numbers are released.” –Chris Marconi VP Residential Lending First Midwest Bank

Today’s Best-Execution Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.5%
  • FHA/VA – 4.25%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED –  3.625%-3.75%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS –  3.0-3.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • After rising consistently from all-time lows in September and October 2012, rates challenged the long term trend higher, but failed to sustain a breakout
  • Uncertainty over the Fed’s bond-buying plans is causing immense volatility in rates markets and generally leading rates quickly higher
  • Fears about the Fed’s bond-buying intentions were proven well-founded on May 22nd when rates rose to 1yr highs after the Fed indicated their intention to taper bond buying programs sooner vs later
  • The June 19th FOMC Statement and Press Conference confirmed the suspicions.  Although tapering wasn’t announced, the Fed made no move to counter the notion that they will decrease bond buying soon if the economic trajectory continues
  • Rates Markets “broke down” following that, as traders realized just how much buy-in there was to the ongoing presence of QE.  These convulsions led to one of the fastest moves higher in the history of mortgage rates and market participants have not been eager to be the among the first explorers to head back into lower rate territory until they’re sure they’ll have some company.
  • (As always, please keep in mind that our Best-Execution rate always pertains to a completely ideal scenario.  There are many reasons a quoted rate may differ from our average rates, and in those cases, assuming you’re following along on a day to day basis, simply use the Best-Ex levels we quote as a baseline to track potential movement in your quoted rate).
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

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Today’s Rates
Best Execution
Rate Change
30 Yr FRM 4.48% +0.00
15 Yr FRM 3.67% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.25% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.52% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.25% +0.00
Average Mortgage Rates
Rate Points Change
FHFA *
15 Yr. Fixed 2.80% 1.17 -0.23
30 Yr. Fixed 3.58% 1.37 -0.19
MBA **
30 Yr. Fixed 4.58% 0.38 +0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 3.67% 0.40 +0.04
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.64% 0.39 -0.02
30 Yr. FHA 4.30% 0.31 +0.02
5/1 ARM 3.39% 0.40 +0.09
Freddie Mac **
30 Yr. Fixed 4.31% 0.80 -0.06
15 Yr. Fixed 3.39% 0.80 -0.02
1 Yr. ARM 2.65% 0.40 -0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.16% 0.70 -0.01
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
Secondary Markets
MBS
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 97.03 +0.28
30YR FNMA 3.5 100.84 +0.19
30YR GNMA 3.0 97.97 +0.31
30YR GNMA 3.5 101.84 +0.28
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.86 +0.14
15YR FNMA 2.5 99.89 +0.19
Treasuries
Yield Change
2 YR 0.3128% -0.0039
5 YR 1.3864% -0.0016
10 YR 2.5857% -0.0187
30 YR 3.6429% -0.0267
Prices as of: 7/31/2013 4:30PM EST
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
About This Report

Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month.  Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available.  We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
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[MBS Commentary] – MBS RECAP: FOMC Trumps Econ Data; Mortgage Rates Mentioned in Statement

MBS RECAP: FOMC Trumps Econ Data; Mortgage Rates Mentioned in Statement

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, July 31, 2013 5:07 PM

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The Fed is to be applauded for mentioning mortgage rates in today’s official Announcement in an unprecedented way.  While the Fed is the very picture of unprecedented intervention in mortgage markets, today’s trick was new.  In the past the mortgage-related policy communications have been limited to statements about the nuts and bolts of mortgage-backed-securities purchases and at their most colorful, saying these actions should “support mortgage markets.”  In that sense, we’ve frequently seen the Fed imply they’d backstop mortgage market stability, but we had yet to see them come out and acknowledge mortgage rates as something they have their eye on.  It was very subtle: “mortgage rates have risen somewhat,” but it’s a first.  It was also offered as a “yeah but” to the strengthening housing market.  All things considered, it says a lot about how closely they’re watching if the term “mortgage rates” made it into THIS announcement and not June 19th’s–NOT because rates aren’t much higher now, but rather because the Fed has heretofore been focused on the SPREAD between MBS and Treasuries which is currently in the same territory it was even before June 19th.  Ergo, they’re cognizant of rates and the potential fallout.  Bravo Fed.  Incidentally, the rest of the statement had a moderately dovish tilt that offset the morning’s scary economic data (scary in the sense that it sent rates higher).  Treasuries might not have rallied as much as they did had it not been for an emboldened mortgage complex that readily soaked up the heaviest day of supply in weeks and kept asking for more.  The possibility that some of the levity could be attributed to month-end buying is debatable.  Tomorrow’s trading might tell us more about how much that was the case (that bonds may have rallied more than they otherwise would had it not been for month-end buying needs).  Either way, NFP on Friday is still the biggest consideration.

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[Mortgage Rate Watch] – Volatile Day Leaves Mortgage Rates Largely Unchanged

Volatile Day Leaves Mortgage Rates Largely Unchanged

Posted to: Mortgage Rate Watch
Wednesday, July 31, 2013 4:56 PM

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Mortgage rates are deceptively unchanged here at the end of the trading day, but that was far from the case this morning.  Rates were significantly higher earlier today rising from yesterday’s levels at their fastest pace of the week after stronger-than-expected economic data.  The Fed statement in the afternoon had the opposite and more than equally-sized effect.  Many lenders are now in slightly better territory than they were at the end of the day yesterday.  Conventional 30yr Fixed best-execution rates remain at 4.5 percent and paying points to move to 4.25% continues to be a viable option depending on the scenario and personal preference

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[MBS Commentary] – Differences Between Past and Current FOMC Statements

Differences Between Past and Current FOMC Statements

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, July 31, 2013 1:59 PM

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Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity expanded at a modest pace during the first half of the year. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has been strengthening, but mortgage rates have risen somewhat and fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Partly reflecting transitory influences, inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

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[MBS Commentary] – MBS MID-DAY: Weaker After Data, Sideways Ahead of FOMC

MBS MID-DAY: Weaker After Data, Sideways Ahead of FOMC

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, July 31, 2013 12:06 PM

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Trading activity has been fairly logical so far today.  Bond markets continued to leak just slightly lower in price overnight (higher in yield), but didn’t break outside the recent consolidative range.  Stronger-than-expected ADP had the honor of motivating that break, ushering 10yr yields up to 2.67 in short order.  Stronger-than-expected GDP followed 15 minutes later and pushed 10yr yields over 2.70 briefly.  MBS were off nearly a full point in Fannie 3.5s at their worst, but liquidity was non-existent before 9:30am for production coupons (mostly 4.0s at current levels).  As broader bond markets digested the move outside the range, MBS began trudging back from the morning lows.  Month-end index buyers and Fed buying have helped MBS keep or exceed the pace of the bounce back in Treasuries.  As 10’s drifted down to settle sideways at 2.67-ish, Fannie 3.5s pared losses to under half a point and Fannie 4.0s to a mere 10 ticks compared to 18 ticks at the weakest levels.  Weaker-than-expected Chicago PMI provided the last bit of assistance needed (or simply stood aside, letting technicals run their course) to reinforce the 2.70 ceiling in 10yr yields ahead of the FOMC Announcement at 2pm.

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[Community Commentary] – Build Your Own Fed Statement

Build Your Own Fed Statement

Posted to: Community Commentary
Wednesday, July 31, 2013 10:46 AM

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Parsing the Fed is everyone’s favorite game, so before the Fed wraps its fifth meeting of 2013 this afternoon, it’s time to play “Build Your Own Fed Statement!” It’s easy to win, just choose your favorite answers from the bold options in the Ted Statement below.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May suggests that (economic activity; MLB trading deadline drama; looming angst among Red Sox and Cardinals fans) has been expanding at a moderate pace. (Labor market conditions; renewed Twinkie supplies; Detroit municipal legal fees) have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the (unemployment rate; distress levels for volume challenged lenders; A-Rod drama) remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is (restraining economic growth; disjointed per usual; coherent for imaginative economists).  Partly reflecting (transitory influences; plummeting loan officers’ payrolls; dwindling Biogenesis revenues), inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

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