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Monthly Archives: July 2013
Daily Rate Update: Volatile Day Leaves Rates Unchanged
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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
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[MBS Commentary] – MBS RECAP: FOMC Trumps Econ Data; Mortgage Rates Mentioned in Statement
MBS RECAP: FOMC Trumps Econ Data; Mortgage Rates Mentioned in Statement
Wednesday, July 31, 2013 5:07 PM
The Fed is to be applauded for mentioning mortgage rates in today’s official Announcement in an unprecedented way. While the Fed is the very picture of unprecedented intervention in mortgage markets, today’s trick was new. In the past the mortgage-related policy communications have been limited to statements about the nuts and bolts of mortgage-backed-securities purchases and at their most colorful, saying these actions should “support mortgage markets.” In that sense, we’ve frequently seen the Fed imply they’d backstop mortgage market stability, but we had yet to see them come out and acknowledge mortgage rates as something they have their eye on. It was very subtle: “mortgage rates have risen somewhat,” but it’s a first. It was also offered as a “yeah but” to the strengthening housing market. All things considered, it says a lot about how closely they’re watching if the term “mortgage rates” made it into THIS announcement and not June 19th’s–NOT because rates aren’t much higher now, but rather because the Fed has heretofore been focused on the SPREAD between MBS and Treasuries which is currently in the same territory it was even before June 19th. Ergo, they’re cognizant of rates and the potential fallout. Bravo Fed. Incidentally, the rest of the statement had a moderately dovish tilt that offset the morning’s scary economic data (scary in the sense that it sent rates higher). Treasuries might not have rallied as much as they did had it not been for an emboldened mortgage complex that readily soaked up the heaviest day of supply in weeks and kept asking for more. The possibility that some of the levity could be attributed to month-end buying is debatable. Tomorrow’s trading might tell us more about how much that was the case (that bonds may have rallied more than they otherwise would had it not been for month-end buying needs). Either way, NFP on Friday is still the biggest consideration.
More from MND:
- Mortgage Rate Watch: Volatile Day Leaves Mortgage Rates Largely Unchanged
- MBS Commentary: Differences Between Past and Current FOMC Statements
- MND NewsWire: FHA "Solvency" Bill Goes to Full Senate
- MBS Commentary: MBS MID-DAY: Weaker After Data, Sideways Ahead of FOMC
- Community Commentary: Build Your Own Fed Statement
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[Mortgage Rate Watch] – Volatile Day Leaves Mortgage Rates Largely Unchanged
Volatile Day Leaves Mortgage Rates Largely Unchanged
Wednesday, July 31, 2013 4:56 PM
Mortgage rates are deceptively unchanged here at the end of the trading day, but that was far from the case this morning. Rates were significantly higher earlier today rising from yesterday’s levels at their fastest pace of the week after stronger-than-expected economic data. The Fed statement in the afternoon had the opposite and more than equally-sized effect. Many lenders are now in slightly better territory than they were at the end of the day yesterday. Conventional 30yr Fixed best-execution rates remain at 4.5 percent and paying points to move to 4.25% continues to be a viable option depending on the scenario and personal preference
More from MND:
- MBS Commentary: Differences Between Past and Current FOMC Statements
- MND NewsWire: FHA "Solvency" Bill Goes to Full Senate
- MBS Commentary: MBS MID-DAY: Weaker After Data, Sideways Ahead of FOMC
- Community Commentary: Build Your Own Fed Statement
- MND NewsWire: Eminent Domain No Longer Theoretical; Critics Warn of Repercussions
If you have trouble viewing this email, you can read the full post at http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/318839.aspx
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[MBS Commentary] – Differences Between Past and Current FOMC Statements
Differences Between Past and Current FOMC Statements
Wednesday, July 31, 2013 1:59 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity expanded at a modest pace during the first half of the year. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has been strengthening, but mortgage rates have risen somewhat and fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Partly reflecting transitory influences, inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
More from MND:
- MND NewsWire: FHA "Solvency" Bill Goes to Full Senate
- MBS Commentary: MBS MID-DAY: Weaker After Data, Sideways Ahead of FOMC
- Community Commentary: Build Your Own Fed Statement
- MND NewsWire: Eminent Domain No Longer Theoretical; Critics Warn of Repercussions
- Pipeline Press: Eminent Domain Embraced by California City; No Mel Watt Vote until September; Libor Lawsuits
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[MBS Commentary] – MBS MID-DAY: Weaker After Data, Sideways Ahead of FOMC
MBS MID-DAY: Weaker After Data, Sideways Ahead of FOMC
Wednesday, July 31, 2013 12:06 PM
Trading activity has been fairly logical so far today. Bond markets continued to leak just slightly lower in price overnight (higher in yield), but didn’t break outside the recent consolidative range. Stronger-than-expected ADP had the honor of motivating that break, ushering 10yr yields up to 2.67 in short order. Stronger-than-expected GDP followed 15 minutes later and pushed 10yr yields over 2.70 briefly. MBS were off nearly a full point in Fannie 3.5s at their worst, but liquidity was non-existent before 9:30am for production coupons (mostly 4.0s at current levels). As broader bond markets digested the move outside the range, MBS began trudging back from the morning lows. Month-end index buyers and Fed buying have helped MBS keep or exceed the pace of the bounce back in Treasuries. As 10’s drifted down to settle sideways at 2.67-ish, Fannie 3.5s pared losses to under half a point and Fannie 4.0s to a mere 10 ticks compared to 18 ticks at the weakest levels. Weaker-than-expected Chicago PMI provided the last bit of assistance needed (or simply stood aside, letting technicals run their course) to reinforce the 2.70 ceiling in 10yr yields ahead of the FOMC Announcement at 2pm.
More from MND:
- Community Commentary: Build Your Own Fed Statement
- MND NewsWire: Eminent Domain No Longer Theoretical; Critics Warn of Repercussions
- Pipeline Press: Eminent Domain Embraced by California City; No Mel Watt Vote until September; Libor Lawsuits
- MND NewsWire: Refinancing Down 55 Percent from Recent Peak
- MBS Commentary: The Day Ahead: Hotly Anticipated Events Arrive
If you have trouble viewing this email, you can read the full post at http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/318724.aspx
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[Community Commentary] – Build Your Own Fed Statement
Build Your Own Fed Statement
Wednesday, July 31, 2013 10:46 AM
Parsing the Fed is everyone’s favorite game, so before the Fed wraps its fifth meeting of 2013 this afternoon, it’s time to play “Build Your Own Fed Statement!” It’s easy to win, just choose your favorite answers from the bold options in the Ted Statement below.
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May suggests that (economic activity; MLB trading deadline drama; looming angst among Red Sox and Cardinals fans) has been expanding at a moderate pace. (Labor market conditions; renewed Twinkie supplies; Detroit municipal legal fees) have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the (unemployment rate; distress levels for volume challenged lenders; A-Rod drama) remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is (restraining economic growth; disjointed per usual; coherent for imaginative economists). Partly reflecting (transitory influences; plummeting loan officers’ payrolls; dwindling Biogenesis revenues), inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
More from MND:
- MND NewsWire: Eminent Domain No Longer Theoretical; Critics Warn of Repercussions
- Pipeline Press: Eminent Domain Embraced by California City; No Mel Watt Vote until September; Libor Lawsuits
- MND NewsWire: Refinancing Down 55 Percent from Recent Peak
- MBS Commentary: The Day Ahead: Hotly Anticipated Events Arrive
- MBS Commentary: MBS RECAP: Still Calm; Storm Still Begins Tomorrow
If you have trouble viewing this email, you can read the full post at http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/community/318720.aspx
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[MND NewsWire] – Eminent Domain No Longer Theoretical; Critics Warn of Repercussions
Eminent Domain No Longer Theoretical; Critics Warn of Repercussions
Wednesday, July 31, 2013 7:29 AM
Months after other cities quietly dropped similar plans the city of Richmond, California yesterday quietly moved to buy 624 residential mortgages in its low income neighborhoods, possibly invoking eminent domain to do so. The city sent letters to 32 servicers and loan pool trustees notifying them of the plan under which the city would pay as little as 25 cent on the dollar for the loans.
The mortgages, all of which are underwater, that is have an unpaid principal balance exceeding the value of the homes which secure them, would be restructured by the city at the actual home value and then resold on the secondary market. Only about one-third of the loans Richmond is planning to buy are delinquent on their loan payments but numerous studies have shown that owners of homes that are “underwater” on their mortgages are far more likely to default on those mortgages than are owners who have equity in their homes. Such homeowners may also be unable to sell their homes or refinance the mortgages to take advantage of lower interest rates. There are also reportedly interest only, negative amortization and other exotic loans types among the subject loans.
More from MND:
- Pipeline Press: Eminent Domain Embraced by California City; No Mel Watt Vote until September; Libor Lawsuits
- MND NewsWire: Refinancing Down 55 Percent from Recent Peak
- MBS Commentary: The Day Ahead: Hotly Anticipated Events Arrive
- MBS Commentary: MBS RECAP: Still Calm; Storm Still Begins Tomorrow
- MND NewsWire: GSEs Waiting on CFPB Before Publishing Standardized Data Requirements
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[Pipeline Press] – Eminent Domain Embraced by California City; No Mel Watt Vote until September; Libor Lawsuits
Eminent Domain Embraced by California City; No Mel Watt Vote until September; Libor Lawsuits
Wednesday, July 31, 2013 5:37 AM
I used to look at my dog and think, “If you were a little smarter, you could tell me what you were thinking.” And she’d look at me like she was saying, “If you were a little smarter, I wouldn’t have to.” There are plenty of smart people who do lending in banks – not all of it on residential or commercial real estate. SNL Financial reports that the top 10 largest bank auto lenders as of Q1 (loans outstanding) were, in billions: Ally Financial ($60), Wells Fargo ($47), JPMorgan Chase ($40), Capital One Financial ($28), Bank of America ($27), TD Bank US ($15), US Bancorp ($12), Fifth Third ($11), SunTrust Banks ($10) and USAA ($10). That is a heckuva lot of car loans outstanding!
(And a quick note about banks. Who knew, way back when Norwest Mortgage bought Wells Fargo, but kept the name due to brand identity, and five years after Wells purchased Wachovia, it would become the world’s most valuable bank. San Francisco-based Wells passed the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China as the largest bank in the world by market capitalization. Wells Fargo’s market cap hit $237 billion as of last week, surpassing ICBC’s $225 billion market cap. It is hard for Wells to tell the world it is a regional bank with those kinds of stats.)
More from MND:
- MND NewsWire: Refinancing Down 55 Percent from Recent Peak
- MBS Commentary: The Day Ahead: Hotly Anticipated Events Arrive
- MBS Commentary: MBS RECAP: Still Calm; Storm Still Begins Tomorrow
- MND NewsWire: GSEs Waiting on CFPB Before Publishing Standardized Data Requirements
- MND NewsWire: Multi-Family Belle of the Commercial Lending Ball
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[MND NewsWire] – Refinancing Down 55 Percent from Recent Peak
Refinancing Down 55 Percent from Recent Peak
Wednesday, July 31, 2013 8:03 AM
“Mortgage rates were little changed last week, but remain roughly one percentage point higher than they were three months ago,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “Refinance application volume continues to decline, with the refinance index now more than 55 percent lower than its recent peak, reaching the lowest level in over two years. Applications for home purchases dropped for the fourth time in five weeks, but purchase volume is running about 5 percent higher than last year at this time.”
As Fratantoni said, there was little movement in mortgage rates and the direction of those changes was mixed…
More from MND:
- MBS Commentary: The Day Ahead: Hotly Anticipated Events Arrive
- MBS Commentary: MBS RECAP: Still Calm; Storm Still Begins Tomorrow
- MND NewsWire: GSEs Waiting on CFPB Before Publishing Standardized Data Requirements
- MND NewsWire: Multi-Family Belle of the Commercial Lending Ball
- Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Unchanged–Maybe Not for Long
If you have trouble viewing this email, you can read the full post at http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/07312013_application_volume.asp
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