MBS RECAP: Uncommonly Calm Month-End Day; Bigger Events Coming Up

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MBS RECAP: Uncommonly Calm Month-End Day; Bigger Events Coming Up

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Tuesday, July 31, 2018 5:36 PM

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Today ended up being all about bond markets reacting positively to last night’s Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement. In a nutshell, they just did one of those “lower for longer” statements that have become a mainstay of post-crisis central banking. Japanese yields fell and Treasuries reluctantly followed–emphasis on reluctance.

As soon as the initial rally was over, Treasuries set about returning to previous levels and came within 1.3bps by the end of the day. Actually they came within 1.3 bps early in the morning, but then traded sideways for the rest of the…

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Daily Newsletter: Home Price Gains Starting to Hurt Sales; Flood Insurance Life Support; When Will Boomer Exodus Begin?

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30 Year Fixed
4.72% -0.01
15 Year Fixed
4.19% -0.01
10YR Treasury
2.96% -0.0130
FNMA 30YR 3.5
99.11 +0.11
FNMA 15YR 2.5
99.08 +0.05
View Today’s Rates
Tuesday July 31, 2018
MND NewsWire – 10:13AM
Home Price Gains are Beginning to Hurt Sales
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index put on a repeat performance for May. The index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, was up 6.4 percent …
MND NewsWire – 4:31PM
Will We Be Ready When Boomers Exit Homeownership?
Baby Boomers, the largest generation of Americans in history until the Millennials came along, have influenced the country since their birth and have created what could be described …
MND NewsWire – 4:35PM
Congress Votes to Keep Flood Insurance on Life Support for 4 More Months
Congress has once again snatched the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) away from its scheduled demise while setting the stage for needing to do it again. The program, which was …
Mortgage Rate Watch – 5:08PM
Mortgage Rates Edge Lower; Volatility Potential Remains
Mortgage rates fell modestly today, bringing them back in line with last Friday’s levels. Most of the inspiration for the improvement came from overnight developments in Japan, where …

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.72% -0.01
15 Yr FRM 4.19% -0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.42% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.50% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 4.00% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.65% 1.14 +0.09
30 Yr. Fixed 4.19% 1.21 +0.02
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.68% 0.46 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.12% 0.51 +0.05
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.55% 0.37 +0.00
30 Yr. FHA 4.69% 0.81 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.83% 0.68 -0.10
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.52% 0.40 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.00% 0.40 -0.02
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.87% 0.30 +0.01

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 96.39 +0.11
30YR FNMA 3.5 99.11 +0.11
30YR GNMA 3.0 97.58 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.5 99.92 -0.05
15YR FNMA 3.0 99.08 +0.05
15YR FNMA 2.5 96.77 +0.03
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 2.6735% +0.0081
5 YR 2.8479% -0.0033
10 YR 2.9617% -0.0130
30 YR 3.0814% -0.0257
Prices as of: 7/31/2018 5:05PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2018 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Edge Lower; Volatility Potential Remains

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.72% -0.01
15 Year Fixed
4.19% -0.01
10YR Treasury
2.96% -0.0130
FNMA 30YR 3.5
99.11 +0.11
FNMA 15YR 2.5
99.08 +0.05
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Edge Lower; Volatility Potential Remains
July 31, 2018
Mortgage rates fell modestly today, bringing them back in line with last Friday’s levels. Most of the inspiration for the improvement came from overnight developments in Japan, where the country’s central bank doubled down on its commitment to keep easy money policies flowing for an extended period of time. In general, when large central banks commit to maintaining such policies, it’s good for interest rates. Last night was no exception, but much of the benefit went to Japan’s bond market (unsurprisingly) with US markets just getting a small token of the gains.

It should be noted that by the time such news filters through to the world of mortgage rates, the improvements are barely detectable for the average borrower. Many mortgage seekers will be seeing the exact same quote compared to yesterday. Those who see better quotes will almost certainly still be seeing the same interest rate, but with marginally lower upfront costs (something around $100 for every $100k financed).

From here on out the rest of the week is busier in terms of scheduled events that could impact rates. The potential for volatility is higher, culminating with Friday’s big jobs report. Bottom line: rates are already near the highest levels in more than 2 months, but if the incoming economic data isn’t ‘rate-friendly,’ they could keep moving higher.

Loan Originator Perspective

Bond markets posted small gains today as traders eyed tomorrow’s Fed Statement and Chairman Powell press conference. Today’s inflation data was slightly below expectations, which boosts bonds. I don’t expect any surprises tomorrow, and will continue locking sooner rather than later. –Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Today’s Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.625-4.75
  • FHA/VA – 4.25-4.5%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 4.125%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 3.75-4.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Rates moved higher in a serious way due to several big-picture headwinds, including: the Fed’s rate hike outlook (and general policy tightening), the increased amount of Treasury issuance to pay for the tax bill (higher bond issuance = higher rates), and the possibility that fiscal stimulus results in higher growth/inflation.
  • Despite those headwinds, the upward momentum in rates has cooled off heading into the summer months. This could merely be the eye of the storm, or it could end up being the moment where markets began to doubt that prevailing trends would continue.
  • It makes sense to remain defensive (i.e. generally more lock-biased) because the headwinds mentioned above won’t die down quickly. Temporary corrections can be explained away, but it will take a big change in economic fundamentals or geopolitical risk for the big picture to change. While that doesn’t necessarily mean rates have to skyrocket, there’s a good chance it means rates will struggle to move much lower than early 2018 lows until more convincing motivation shows up.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
31?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
31?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.72% -0.01
15 Yr FRM 4.19% -0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.42% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.50% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 4.00% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.65% 1.14 +0.09
30 Yr. Fixed 4.19% 1.21 +0.02
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.68% 0.46 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.12% 0.51 +0.05
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.55% 0.37 +0.00
30 Yr. FHA 4.69% 0.81 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.83% 0.68 -0.10
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.52% 0.40 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.00% 0.40 -0.02
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.87% 0.30 +0.01

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 96.39 +0.11
30YR FNMA 3.5 99.11 +0.11
30YR GNMA 3.0 97.58 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.5 99.92 -0.05
15YR FNMA 3.0 99.08 +0.05
15YR FNMA 2.5 96.77 +0.03
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 2.6735% +0.0081
5 YR 2.8479% -0.0033
10 YR 2.9617% -0.0130
30 YR 3.0814% -0.0257
Prices as of: 7/31/2018 5:05PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2018 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

Congress Votes to Keep Flood Insurance on Life Support for 4 More Months

Congress Votes to Keep Flood Insurance on Life Support for 4 More Months

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Tuesday, July 31, 2018 3:26 PM

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Congress has once again snatched the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) away from its scheduled demise while setting the stage for needing to do it again. The program, which was due to expire at midnight on Tuesday, was extended for another four months. It was merely the latest is a series of delaying actions while someone, somewhere, figures out how to make the program actually work.

Had the program expired, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) which administers it would have been unable to issue new policies. This would have prevented on the sale of houses in specified flood zones that were to be financed by any federally guaranteed mortgages. The National Association of Realtors earlier estimated that some 40,000 home sales would be disrupted if the program were allowed to expire for a month. FEMA would also be unable to pay out claims in the event of a major flooding disaster – in the middle of hurricane season.

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Will We Be Ready When Boomers Exit Homeownership?

Will We Be Ready When Boomers Exit Homeownership?

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Tuesday, July 31, 2018 1:53 PM

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Baby Boomers, the largest generation of Americans in history until the Millennials came along, have influenced the country since their birth and have created what could be described as a pig in a python in homeownership rates. They are ageing, the leading edge of the group is now in their 70s, but still, according to Fannie Mae, inhabit 46 million owner-occupied homes with an estimated $13.5 trillion. What happens to the housing market when that generation, voluntarily or not, exit homeownership? Will the four generations following behind the Boomers step up and assume the mantle of homeownership?

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Blitzer: Home Price Gains are Beginning to Hurt Sales

Blitzer: Home Price Gains are Beginning to Hurt Sales

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Tuesday, July 31, 2018 9:47 AM

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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index put on a repeat performance for May. The index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, was up 6.4 percent, the same annual increase as was reported in April. There was a slight escalation in the monthly numbers, which estimated an increase of 1.1 percent before seasonal adjustment, and 0.4 percent afterward. In April the index rose 1.0 percent and 0.3 percent respectively. The two composite indices did decelerate slightly from their April pace. The10-City Composite gained 6.1 percent on an annual basis, down from 6.4 percent the previous month and the 20-City Composite’s appreciation slowed from 6.7 percent to 6.5 percent year-over-year.

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MBS Day Ahead: “Japan Effect” Tested; Torch Passed to Month-End

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MBS Day Ahead: "Japan Effect" Tested; Torch Passed to Month-End

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Tuesday, July 31, 2018 9:48 AM

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Over the past 2 weeks, there has been quite a lot of speculation on the effects of Japanese monetary policy communications on US Treasuries. I’ve mentioned these in passing, but haven’t really spent too much time on it because I didn’t happen to agree that it was the most important market mover in play. Today brings a bit of vindication for that stance as Japan was out overnight with a policy announcement that essentially aimed to quell all the recent speculation.

As far as Japanese bond yields are concerned, the BOJ (Bank of Japan) was successful. Yields…

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