Daily Newsletter: Pending Home Sales Just Hit a New All-Time High; Applications Slowed as Rush to Beat The New Fee Dies Down

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30 Year Fixed
2.98% +0.00
15 Year Fixed
2.61% +0.00
10YR Treasury
0.69% +0.0345
FNMA 30YR 3.5
105.42 +0.05
FNMA 15YR 2.5
104.91 -0.03
View Today’s Rates
Wednesday September 30, 2020
MND NewsWire – 10:04AM
Pending Home Sales Just Hit a New All-Time High
Contracts for existing home purchases rose for the fourth straight month in August and more than doubled the increase expected by most analysts. The National Association of Realtors® …
MND NewsWire – 8:34AM
Mortgage Applications Slowed as Many Rush to Beat the Adverse Market Fee
Mortgage application volume has fallen into an up and down pattern over the last few weeks and last week went to the negative side. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market …
Mortgage Rate Watch – 4:38PM
The Market That Drives Mortgage Rates Just Had Its Worst Day in Weeks
Mortgage rates don’t just magically appear . Lenders don’t choose them arbitrarily. To sustain the pace and scope of the mortgage market in the US (and indeed of most any debt), the …
MBS Commentary – 9:45AM
MBS Day Ahead: Clear Reaction to Presidential Debate, But There’s a Catch
There has been an uncanny amount of sideways momentum in the bond market for months. The range has grown even narrower over the past 3 weeks with this week being the narrowest in decades …

Latest Video


Mortgage demand falls despite interest rates setting another record low

Pending home sales index hits record high in August

Sec. Mnuchin says progress made but no deal on new stimulus

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 2.98% +0.00
15 Yr FRM 2.61% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.36% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.36% +0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 2.79% +0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
30 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 3.10% 0.52 +0.05
15 Yr. Fixed 2.65% 0.49 +0.01
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.33% 0.39 -0.02
30 Yr. FHA 3.15% 0.43 -0.08
5/1 ARM 2.95% 0.55 -0.24
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 2.90% 0.80 +0.03
15 Yr. Fixed 2.40% 0.70 +0.05
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 2.90% 0.20 -0.06

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR UMBS 3.0 104.75 0.00
30YR UMBS 3.5 105.42 +0.05
30YR GNMA 3.0 104.31 -0.03
30YR GNMA 3.5 104.42 -0.11
15YR UMBS 3.0 104.91 -0.03
15YR UMBS 2.5 104.41 0.00
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
TR_Eikon_Email.png
2 YR 0.1309% +0.0039
5 YR 0.2784% +0.0253
10 YR 0.6857% +0.0345
30 YR 1.4539% +0.0371
Prices as of: 9/30/2020 4:56PM EST

23623981

This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2020 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Finally Make a Move. How Serious Is It?

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Finally Make a Move. How Serious Is It?

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, September 30, 2020 4:35 PM

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Bonds Finally Make a Move. How Serious Is It?

After more than 2 months of a narrow sideways range and more than 3 weeks of an increasingly narrow trading range, bond yields finally broke out today. Is this the start of a new trend toward higher rates or just an incidental byproduct of a few key events? The answers are “probably not” and “probably” in that order, but the details matter.

Econ Data / Events

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Daily Rate Update: The Market That Drives Mortgage Rates Just Had Its Worst Day in Weeks

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
2.98% +0.00
15 Year Fixed
2.61% +0.00
10YR Treasury
0.69% +0.0345
FNMA 30YR 3.5
105.42 +0.05
FNMA 15YR 2.5
104.91 -0.03
View Today’s Rates
The Market That Drives Mortgage Rates Just Had Its Worst Day in Weeks
September 30, 2020
Mortgage rates don’t just magically appear. Lenders don’t choose them arbitrarily. To sustain the pace and scope of the mortgage market in the US (and indeed of most any debt), the cost of money over time has to be carefully considered before a lender knows where to set its rates. When it comes to something like the money the US government borrows, it’s the Treasury market that determines the cost of money over time. In other words, open trading in financial markets results in the yield (aka rate) on a 10yr Treasury note being at one level while the rate for a 30yr Treasury note is at a different level.

There’s a market for mortgage lenders to openly trade groups of mortgages (or even individual mortgages) too! Like the US government sells Treasuries to fund operations, mortgage lenders sell Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on the open market. The prices paid by investors determine the value of MBS and consequently the line in the sand for mortgage lender profitability.

With all of that background out of the way, we can finally get to the point. MBS had their worst day in 2 weeks today, mirroring an even bigger loss in the US Treasuries they often track. In the past, and in general, moves such as this would result in an obvious, measurable increase in mortgage rates, albeit a small one. In today’s case, that’s only true on a technicality. The average lender began the day with slightly lower mortgage rates (MBS were actually in better shape this morning compared to yesterday). But as the bond market deteriorated throughout the day, lenders did what they often do in those cases: they raised rates very slightly.

Is the increase enough to ruin anyone’s day? That depends… How sensitive are you? We’re not talking about even an eighth of a percent in interest rate, on average (some lenders increased rates by that much, but it was for reasons other than the weaker bond market conditions).

The bigger question is whether or not this first big move after weeks of calm consolidation is merely the tip of the spear. That’s a question that can only be answered in time, however. There are great cases to be made for rates remaining in a generally low, sideways range for a long time. The biggest risk to this in the short term would seem to be unexpectedly swift progress toward to finalization of the much-anticipated stimulus bill

Bottom line: things have been very calm and sideways for rates. We just had a wake-up call today. The damage wasn’t severe but it serves as a reminder that rates still move in 2 directions.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360&p=15YRFRM

newsletter_2D00_mbslive.png

Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 2.98% +0.00
15 Yr FRM 2.61% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.36% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.36% +0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 2.79% +0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
30 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 3.10% 0.52 +0.05
15 Yr. Fixed 2.65% 0.49 +0.01
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.33% 0.39 -0.02
30 Yr. FHA 3.15% 0.43 -0.08
5/1 ARM 2.95% 0.55 -0.24
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 2.90% 0.80 +0.03
15 Yr. Fixed 2.40% 0.70 +0.05
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 2.90% 0.20 -0.06

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR UMBS 3.0 104.75 0.00
30YR UMBS 3.5 105.42 +0.05
30YR GNMA 3.0 104.31 -0.03
30YR GNMA 3.5 104.42 -0.11
15YR UMBS 3.0 104.91 -0.03
15YR UMBS 2.5 104.41 0.00
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 0.1309% +0.0039
5 YR 0.2784% +0.0253
10 YR 0.6857% +0.0345
30 YR 1.4539% +0.0371
Prices as of: 9/30/2020 4:56PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2020 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

Pending Home Sales Just Hit a New All-Time High

Pending Home Sales Just Hit a New All-Time High

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, September 30, 2020 9:52 AM

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Contracts for existing home purchases rose for the fourth straight month in August and more than doubled the increase expected by most analysts. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) says its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rose from 122.1 in July to 132.8 in August, an increase of 8.8 percent. The PHSI, based on contracts to purchase existing single-family houses, townhouses, condos, and cooperative apartments, is now at an all time high and is 24.2 percent above its level in August 2019. The index is also up 44.6 points from the point to which it plunged in April after the widespread business closures and stay-at-home responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Most analysts had looked for a strong report, but still didn’t come close to predicting the actual gains. Those polled by Econoday had looked for an increase between 2.0 and 4.0 percent with a consensus of 3.1 percent. Analysts forecasting for Trading Economics had a consensus increase of 3.4 percent.

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MBS Day Ahead: Clear Reaction to Presidential Debate, But There’s a Catch

Before you read it here, it was on MBS Live.
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MBS Day Ahead: Clear Reaction to Presidential Debate, But There’s a Catch

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, September 30, 2020 9:45 AM

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There has been an uncanny amount of sideways momentum in the bond market for months. The range has grown even narrower over the past 3 weeks with this week being the narrowest in decades (since February 15th, 1991 to be exact. This isn’t pictured on the following chart due to scaling constraints).

20200930 open3.png

Reasons for the range-bind are well understood and frequently discussed. The bigger of the two–general uncertainty and strongly assumed economic impact related to the pandemic–has no set timeline, but in any case isn’t expected to be resolved any time…

(READ THE FULL POST)

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Servicing, MLO, Ops Jobs; Compliance, Jumbo Products; Webinars and Training; Housing, Jobs, and Stable Rates

Servicing, MLO, Ops Jobs; Compliance, Jumbo Products; Webinars and Training; Housing, Jobs, and Stable Rates

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Wednesday, September 30, 2020 7:56 AM

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Welcome to the start of Fat Bear Week in Alaska. (There’s even a Park Service bracket with the favorites… expect upsets!) It’s probably easier to forecast the fattest bear than it is to predict forbearance trends, although MCT’s “MSR Forbearance in 2020: Challenges and Recommendations addresses the “here and now” about how market volatility, forbearance, prepayment speeds and other factors have affected MSR portfolios. Turning to interest rates and volumes, the “experts” are saying production has no where to go but down in 2021. So does paying signing bonuses and stealing competitor’s staff make sense if volumes actually drop next year? And should the industry even embrace forecasts in general, or ignore them and focus on taking market share from competitors regardless of industry-wide volumes? Just as senior management is asking underlings for thoughts on 2021, STRATMOR has a piece titled, “Do Lenders Care About Forecasts or Predictions?” “When uncertainty abounds, pundits strive to differentiate themselves from their peers. There’s little to be gained from saying what everyone else is saying, or, God forbid, suggesting that there isn’t enough information on which to base a judgement.”

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Mortgage Applications Slowed as Many Rush to Beat the Adverse Market Fee

Mortgage Applications Slowed as Many Rush to Beat the Adverse Market Fee

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, September 30, 2020 7:20 AM

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Mortgage application volume has fallen into an up and down pattern over the last few weeks and last week went to the negative side. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index decreased 4.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended September 25 and lost 5 percent on an unadjusted basis. The Refinance Index fell by 7 percent but was 52 percent higher than the same week in 2019. Refinancing continues to dominate the action, although its share of total applications was down from 64.3 percent during the week ended September 18 to 63.3 percent. The Purchase Index decreased 2 percent on both an adjusted and unadjusted basis from the previous week but was 22 percent higher than the same week one year ago. An unbroken string of annual increases now dates back to the week ended May 22.

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MBS RECAP: Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep Gaining

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MBS RECAP: Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep Gaining

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Tuesday, September 29, 2020 4:00 PM

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Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep Gaining

MBS continue to outperform due to favorable supply vs demand. Treasuries continue sideways. In fact, they found a way to express even more uncertainty than the prevailing sideways range of .63-.73 in 10yr yields. Today’s trading range? .64-.66. This caps a consolidation trend that will have a hard time getting any narrower. Perhaps bonds are circling the wagons…

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Daily Newsletter: Perfect Storm For Home Prices; Will Low Rates Care About The Debate?

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dailynewsletter.png
30 Year Fixed
2.98% -0.01
15 Year Fixed
2.61% -0.06
10YR Treasury
0.65% -0.0098
FNMA 30YR 3.5
105.38 +0.03
FNMA 15YR 2.5
104.94 +0.03
View Today’s Rates
Tuesday September 29, 2020
Mortgage Rate Watch – 3:59PM
Mortgage Rates Still Sideways to Slightly Lower
The average mortgage lender continues to offer top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates in the “high 2% to low 3%” neighborhood. Exactly where any given quote will reside in that neighborhood …
MND NewsWire – 11:35AM
Perfect Storm For Home Prices?
The growth of home prices nationally continued to accelerate in July according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index. The National Index, which covers …
MBS Commentary – 9:37AM
MBS Day Ahead: Presidential Debate Could Offer Hints at Bonds’ Election Game Plan
The absence of volatility in the bond market cannot be overemphasized at the moment, or during most any moment since mid August. Rather than drift toward a more committed stance–as …

Latest Video


Weakened home affordability could impact urban flight

Consumer Confidence Index at 101.8, best number since March 2020

Paychex September small business report shows slow increase in hiring

More News from ‘Around the Web’

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 2.98% -0.01
15 Yr FRM 2.61% -0.06
FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.36% -0.01
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.35% +0.00
5/1 Yr ARM 2.78% +0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
30 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 3.07% 0.32 +0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 2.61% 0.35 -0.01
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.41% 0.27 +0.01
30 Yr. FHA 3.16% 0.35 +0.00
5/1 ARM 3.20% 0.58 +0.21
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 2.90% 0.80 +0.03
15 Yr. Fixed 2.40% 0.70 +0.05
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 2.90% 0.20 -0.06

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR UMBS 3.0 104.75 +0.03
30YR UMBS 3.5 105.38 +0.03
30YR GNMA 3.0 104.34 +0.13
30YR GNMA 3.5 104.53 +0.03
15YR UMBS 3.0 104.94 +0.03
15YR UMBS 2.5 104.41 +0.06
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
TR_Eikon_Email.png
2 YR 0.1270% -0.0019
5 YR 0.2531% -0.0095
10 YR 0.6479% -0.0098
30 YR 1.4149% -0.0038
Prices as of: 9/29/2020 4:18PM EST

23623981

This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2020 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Still Sideways to Slightly Lower

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
2.98% -0.01
15 Year Fixed
2.61% -0.06
10YR Treasury
0.65% -0.0098
FNMA 30YR 3.5
105.38 +0.03
FNMA 15YR 2.5
104.94 +0.03
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Still Sideways to Slightly Lower
September 29, 2020
The average mortgage lender continues to offer top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates in the “high 2% to low 3%” neighborhood. Exactly where any given quote will reside in that neighborhood depends on several factors. The most important of those is the re-introduction of the new adverse market fee for all conventional refinances. If you’re not up to speed on that, here’s some additional background.

The adverse fee is the most important factor because it instantly accounts for a change of at least 0.125% in rate for refinances. Purchase mortgages are officially unaffected, but they’ve been caught in the crossfire, to some extent, as many lenders are generally pricing more cautiously during the phasing-in process for the new fee. After all, the fee significantly affects lender cash flows. Moreover, it introduces uncertainty because it’s impossible to know exactly which loans will make the cut-off date to avoid the fee. As such, from a lender’s standpoint, it makes more sense to err on the side of caution (i.e. keep rates slightly higher than they otherwise might be) until that uncertainty is behind them.

Apart from the adverse fee, interest rates have been extremely stable recently. That’s largely a reflection of the underlying bond market, which has been even more sideways than mortgage rates! While traders aren’t seeing much on the near term horizon to threaten this low rate regime, volatility is always possible. The nearest risk on the horizon is tonight’s presidential debate. Elections always have the power to motivate changes among bond traders. If the debate suggests a clear shift in election probabilities, we could see the effects in the bond market which, in turn, could exert a bit more influence on rates tomorrow than we’ve seen in the past few weeks.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
29?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
29?w=360&p=15YRFRM

newsletter_2D00_mbslive.png

Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 2.98% -0.01
15 Yr FRM 2.61% -0.06
FHA 30 Year Fixed 2.36% -0.01
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.35% +0.00
5/1 Yr ARM 2.78% +0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
30 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 +0.00
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 3.07% 0.32 +0.00
15 Yr. Fixed 2.61% 0.35 -0.01
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.41% 0.27 +0.01
30 Yr. FHA 3.16% 0.35 +0.00
5/1 ARM 3.20% 0.58 +0.21
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 2.90% 0.80 +0.03
15 Yr. Fixed 2.40% 0.70 +0.05
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 2.90% 0.20 -0.06

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR UMBS 3.0 104.75 +0.03
30YR UMBS 3.5 105.38 +0.03
30YR GNMA 3.0 104.34 +0.13
30YR GNMA 3.5 104.53 +0.03
15YR UMBS 3.0 104.94 +0.03
15YR UMBS 2.5 104.41 +0.06
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 0.1270% -0.0019
5 YR 0.2531% -0.0095
10 YR 0.6479% -0.0098
30 YR 1.4149% -0.0038
Prices as of: 9/29/2020 4:16PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2020 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
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