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Monthly Archives: September 2020
MBS RECAP: Bonds Finally Make a Move. How Serious Is It?
Before you read it here, it was on MBS Live. |
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Finally Make a Move. How Serious Is It?
Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, September 30, 2020 4:35 PM
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Bonds Finally Make a Move. How Serious Is It?
After more than 2 months of a narrow sideways range and more than 3 weeks of an increasingly narrow trading range, bond yields finally broke out today. Is this the start of a new trend toward higher rates or just an incidental byproduct of a few key events? The answers are “probably not” and “probably” in that order, but the details matter.
Econ Data / Events
More from MND:
- MND NewsWire: Pending Home Sales Just Hit a New All-Time High
- MBS Commentary: MBS Day Ahead: Clear Reaction to Presidential Debate, But There’s a Catch
- Pipeline Press: Servicing, MLO, Ops Jobs; Compliance, Jumbo Products; Webinars and Training; Housing, Jobs, and Stable Rates
- MND NewsWire: Mortgage Applications Slowed as Many Rush to Beat the Adverse Market Fee
- MBS Commentary: MBS RECAP: Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep Gaining
If you have trouble viewing this email, you can read the full post at http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/955932.aspx
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Daily Rate Update: The Market That Drives Mortgage Rates Just Had Its Worst Day in Weeks
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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice. You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications. |
Pending Home Sales Just Hit a New All-Time High
Pending Home Sales Just Hit a New All-Time High
Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, September 30, 2020 9:52 AM
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Contracts for existing home purchases rose for the fourth straight month in August and more than doubled the increase expected by most analysts. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) says its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rose from 122.1 in July to 132.8 in August, an increase of 8.8 percent. The PHSI, based on contracts to purchase existing single-family houses, townhouses, condos, and cooperative apartments, is now at an all time high and is 24.2 percent above its level in August 2019. The index is also up 44.6 points from the point to which it plunged in April after the widespread business closures and stay-at-home responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Most analysts had looked for a strong report, but still didn’t come close to predicting the actual gains. Those polled by Econoday had looked for an increase between 2.0 and 4.0 percent with a consensus of 3.1 percent. Analysts forecasting for Trading Economics had a consensus increase of 3.4 percent.
More from MND:
- MBS Commentary: MBS Day Ahead: Clear Reaction to Presidential Debate, But There’s a Catch
- Pipeline Press: Servicing, MLO, Ops Jobs; Compliance, Jumbo Products; Webinars and Training; Housing, Jobs, and Stable Rates
- MND NewsWire: Mortgage Applications Slowed as Many Rush to Beat the Adverse Market Fee
- MBS Commentary: MBS RECAP: Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep Gaining
- Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Still Sideways to Slightly Lower
If you have trouble viewing this email, you can read the full post at http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/09302020_pending_sales.asp
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MBS Day Ahead: Clear Reaction to Presidential Debate, But There’s a Catch
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MBS Day Ahead: Clear Reaction to Presidential Debate, But There’s a Catch
Posted to: MBS Commentary
Wednesday, September 30, 2020 9:45 AM
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There has been an uncanny amount of sideways momentum in the bond market for months. The range has grown even narrower over the past 3 weeks with this week being the narrowest in decades (since February 15th, 1991 to be exact. This isn’t pictured on the following chart due to scaling constraints).
Reasons for the range-bind are well understood and frequently discussed. The bigger of the two–general uncertainty and strongly assumed economic impact related to the pandemic–has no set timeline, but in any case isn’t expected to be resolved any time…
More from MND:
- MND NewsWire: Mortgage Applications Slowed as Many Rush to Beat the Adverse Market Fee
- MBS Commentary: MBS RECAP: Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep Gaining
- Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Still Sideways to Slightly Lower
- MND NewsWire: Perfect Storm For Home Prices?
- MBS Commentary: MBS Day Ahead: Presidential Debate Could Offer Hints at Bonds’ Election Game Plan
If you have trouble viewing this email, you can read the full post at http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/955878.aspx
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Servicing, MLO, Ops Jobs; Compliance, Jumbo Products; Webinars and Training; Housing, Jobs, and Stable Rates
Servicing, MLO, Ops Jobs; Compliance, Jumbo Products; Webinars and Training; Housing, Jobs, and Stable Rates
Posted to: Pipeline Press
Wednesday, September 30, 2020 7:56 AM
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Welcome to the start of Fat Bear Week in Alaska. (There’s even a Park Service bracket with the favorites… expect upsets!) It’s probably easier to forecast the fattest bear than it is to predict forbearance trends, although MCT’s “MSR Forbearance in 2020: Challenges and Recommendations addresses the “here and now” about how market volatility, forbearance, prepayment speeds and other factors have affected MSR portfolios. Turning to interest rates and volumes, the “experts” are saying production has no where to go but down in 2021. So does paying signing bonuses and stealing competitor’s staff make sense if volumes actually drop next year? And should the industry even embrace forecasts in general, or ignore them and focus on taking market share from competitors regardless of industry-wide volumes? Just as senior management is asking underlings for thoughts on 2021, STRATMOR has a piece titled, “Do Lenders Care About Forecasts or Predictions?” “When uncertainty abounds, pundits strive to differentiate themselves from their peers. There’s little to be gained from saying what everyone else is saying, or, God forbid, suggesting that there isn’t enough information on which to base a judgement.”
More from MND:
- MND NewsWire: Mortgage Applications Slowed as Many Rush to Beat the Adverse Market Fee
- MBS Commentary: MBS RECAP: Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep Gaining
- Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Still Sideways to Slightly Lower
- MND NewsWire: Perfect Storm For Home Prices?
- MBS Commentary: MBS Day Ahead: Presidential Debate Could Offer Hints at Bonds’ Election Game Plan
If you have trouble viewing this email, you can read the full post at http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/pipelinepress/09302020-mortgage-forbearance.aspx
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Mortgage Applications Slowed as Many Rush to Beat the Adverse Market Fee
Mortgage Applications Slowed as Many Rush to Beat the Adverse Market Fee
Posted to: MND NewsWire
Wednesday, September 30, 2020 7:20 AM
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Mortgage application volume has fallen into an up and down pattern over the last few weeks and last week went to the negative side. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index decreased 4.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended September 25 and lost 5 percent on an unadjusted basis. The Refinance Index fell by 7 percent but was 52 percent higher than the same week in 2019. Refinancing continues to dominate the action, although its share of total applications was down from 64.3 percent during the week ended September 18 to 63.3 percent. The Purchase Index decreased 2 percent on both an adjusted and unadjusted basis from the previous week but was 22 percent higher than the same week one year ago. An unbroken string of annual increases now dates back to the week ended May 22.
More from MND:
- MBS Commentary: MBS RECAP: Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep Gaining
- Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Still Sideways to Slightly Lower
- MND NewsWire: Perfect Storm For Home Prices?
- MBS Commentary: MBS Day Ahead: Presidential Debate Could Offer Hints at Bonds’ Election Game Plan
- Pipeline Press: Ops Jobs Coast to Coast; Re-Branding, Finance, Digital Tools
If you have trouble viewing this email, you can read the full post at http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/09302020_applications_forbearance.asp
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MBS RECAP: Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep Gaining
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MBS RECAP: Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep Gaining
Posted to: MBS Commentary
Tuesday, September 29, 2020 4:00 PM
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Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep Gaining
MBS continue to outperform due to favorable supply vs demand. Treasuries continue sideways. In fact, they found a way to express even more uncertainty than the prevailing sideways range of .63-.73 in 10yr yields. Today’s trading range? .64-.66. This caps a consolidation trend that will have a hard time getting any narrower. Perhaps bonds are circling the wagons…
More from MND:
- Mortgage Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates Still Sideways to Slightly Lower
- MND NewsWire: Perfect Storm For Home Prices?
- MBS Commentary: MBS Day Ahead: Presidential Debate Could Offer Hints at Bonds’ Election Game Plan
- Pipeline Press: Ops Jobs Coast to Coast; Re-Branding, Finance, Digital Tools
- MBS Commentary: MBS RECAP: Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range?
If you have trouble viewing this email, you can read the full post at http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/955794.aspx
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Daily Newsletter: Perfect Storm For Home Prices; Will Low Rates Care About The Debate?
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Still Sideways to Slightly Lower
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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice. You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications. |