MBS RECAP: Fed Comments Tank Bonds in 9th Inning

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MBS RECAP: Fed Comments Tank Bonds in 9th Inning

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Tuesday, February 28, 2017 6:38 PM

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Treasuries and MBS made it almost all the way through the day with very little drama. There were some ups and downs, but by 4pm, trading levels were very close to ‘unchanged’ on the day. Then newswires hit from NY Fed President Dudley:

  • RTRS – FED’S DUDLEY: RATE HIKE LIKELY IN ‘RELATIVELY NEAR FUTURE’
  • RTRS – FED’S DUDLEY: EXPECTS TO CONTINUE TO REMOVE ACCOMMODATION
  • RTRS – FED’S DUDLEY: CASE FOR TIGHTENING IS NOW A LOT MORE COMPELLING -CNN
  • RTRS – FED’S DUDLEY: LIKELY TO GET FISCAL STIMULUS; RISKS TO OUTLOOK LIKELY TILTED TO UPSIDE

It’s one thing for regional…

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Daily Newsletter: Spring Housing Already Overheating; Highest Appreciation in 30 Months; Rates Move Up

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30 Year Fixed
4.16% +0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.36% +0.01
10YR Treasury
2.40% +0.0304
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.25 -0.23
FNMA 15YR 2.5
102.50 -0.31
View Today’s Rates
Tuesday February 28, 2017
MND NewsWire – 12:07PM
Spring Housing Already Overheating—Think 60 Offers on One House
The spring housing market started early this year, not because of higher-than-average temperatures but because of hotter-than-average demand and overheating home prices. This year may …
Mortgage Rate Watch – 2:32PM
Mortgage Rates Modestly Higher Ahead of Trump Speech
Mortgage rates moved higher today in most cases, but not by much. More interesting is the fact that rates held their ground as well as they did considering several strong economic reports …
MND NewsWire – 10:07AM
Home Price Appreciation Highest in 30 Months -Case-Shiller
Home prices accelerated their growth again in December. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, rose by 5 …
MND NewsWire – 10:11AM
Cash, Distressed Sales Closing in on "Normal"
The end is near. CoreLogic said today that the market share of home sales accounted for by distressed properties may return to normal levels by the end of this year. This is about a …

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.16% +0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.36% +0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.75% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.29% +0.02
5/1 Yr ARM 3.03% +0.00

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.06% 1.30 +0.03
30 Yr. Fixed 3.76% 1.38 +0.03
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.41% 0.38 +0.13
15 Yr. Fixed 3.64% 0.34 +0.12
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.36% 0.26 +0.07
30 Yr. FHA 4.15% 0.29 +0.13
5/1 ARM 3.45% 0.26 +0.17
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.16% 0.50 +0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 3.37% 0.50 +0.02
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.16% 0.40 -0.02

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 99.06 -0.23
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.25 -0.23
30YR GNMA 3.0 100.80 -0.20
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.67 -0.13
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.50 -0.31
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.02 -0.19
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 1.2640% +0.0637
5 YR 1.9376% +0.0708
10 YR 2.3971% +0.0304
30 YR 2.9976% +0.0182
Prices as of: 2/28/2017 5:06PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2017 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Modestly Higher Ahead of Trump Speech

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.16% +0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.36% +0.01
10YR Treasury
2.40% +0.0304
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.25 -0.23
FNMA 15YR 2.5
102.50 -0.31
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Modestly Higher Ahead of Trump Speech
February 28, 2017
Mortgage rates moved higher today in most cases, but not by much. More interesting is the fact that rates held their ground as well as they did considering several strong economic reports this morning. Strong economic data typically leads investors to sell bonds, which in turn results in lower bond prices and higher rates.

This morning’s dynamic was quite different. While the stronger economic data was briefly acknowledged with some temporary weakness in bonds, the broader trend remained favorable. Bonds actually improved a bit heading into the afternoon.

If today’s rate sheets were based solely on this morning’s market movement, rates would be slightly lower compared to yesterday. But lenders still had to account for some of yesterday’s late day bond market weakness. Today’s modestly higher average rate is the net effect of this morning’s resilience and yesterday’s weakness.

Investors are curious to hear what President Trump has to say at his “address of the joint session” tonight. This has the potential to kick off the next wave of momentum in rates–either back toward the higher end of 2017’s range or down into new lows for the year. Given that we’re already fairly close to recent lows, it’s a good time to lock for folks who don’t want to risk losing any money. Risk-takers would be justified in waiting to lock as long as they’re OK with locking at a loss tomorrow if things don’t go their way.

Loan Originator Perspective

With bond yields near recent lows, I think it is wise to look at locking today. Tonight’s Presidential Address to Congress has the potential to move rates one way or the other. Since this happens tonight, you wont have a chance to lock before any bad news for rates. Even if we get good news for rates, I am not sure we have much more room to improve so the risk outweighs the potential reward. –Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage


Today’s Best-Execution Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.125%
  • FHA/VA – 3.75-4.25%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.375-3.5%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 2.75 – 3.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Rates had been trending higher since hitting all-time lows in early July, and exploded higher following the presidential election
  • Some investors are increasingly worried/convinced that the decades-long trend toward lower rates has been permanently reversed, but such a conclusion would require YEARS to truly confirm
  • With the incoming administration’s policies driving a large portion of upward rate momentum, mortgage rates will be hard-pressed to return to pre-election levels until well after Trump takes office. Rates can move for other reasons, but it would take something big and unexpected for rates to get back to pre-election levels.
  • We’d need to see a sustained push back toward lower rates (something that lasts more than 3 days) before anything less than a cautious, lock-biased approach makes sense for all but the most risk-tolerant borrowers.
  • As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we’ve termedbest-execution(that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also ‘bang-for-the-buck.’ Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points–though this can vary–and tends to predict Freddie Mac’s weekly survey with high accuracy. It’s safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie’s once-a-week polling method).

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
28?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
28?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.16% +0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.36% +0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.75% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.29% +0.02
5/1 Yr ARM 3.03% +0.00

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.06% 1.30 +0.03
30 Yr. Fixed 3.76% 1.38 +0.03
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.41% 0.38 +0.13
15 Yr. Fixed 3.64% 0.34 +0.12
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.36% 0.26 +0.07
30 Yr. FHA 4.15% 0.29 +0.13
5/1 ARM 3.45% 0.26 +0.17
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.16% 0.50 +0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 3.37% 0.50 +0.02
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.16% 0.40 -0.02

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 99.06 -0.23
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.25 -0.23
30YR GNMA 3.0 100.80 -0.20
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.67 -0.13
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.50 -0.31
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.02 -0.19
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 1.2640% +0.0637
5 YR 1.9376% +0.0708
10 YR 2.3971% +0.0304
30 YR 2.9976% +0.0182
Prices as of: 2/28/2017 5:06PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2017 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

Spring Housing Already Overheating—Think 60 Offers on One House

Spring Housing Already Overheating—Think 60 Offers on One House

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Tuesday, February 28, 2017 11:13 AM

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The spring housing market started early this year, not because of higher-than-average temperatures but because of hotter-than-average demand and overheating home prices.

This year may be the starkest example of a post-recession reality that is redefining housing as we know it.

“This spring housing market is shaping up to be another doozy for homebuyers,” said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist for home-listing website Trulia. “Housing affordability is the key to helping break yet another year of gridlocked inventory, but all signs are showing that homes this spring will be much less affordable…

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Cash, Distressed Sales Closing in on “Normal”

Cash, Distressed Sales Closing in on "Normal"

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Monday, February 27, 2017 12:17 PM

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The end is near. CoreLogic said today that the market share of home sales accounted for by distressed properties may return to normal levels by the end of this year. This is about a half year earlier than the company had been predicting as recently as last month.

Distressed homes sales accounted for 7.5 percent of home sales in November with sales of bank-owned property (REO) accounting for 4.9 percent and short sales 2.6 percent. The total distressed property share was down 4.3 percent compared to November 2015 and was the lowest for any month since September 2007.

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Black Knight’s HPI Holds on to Late Year Gains

Black Knight’s HPI Holds on to Late Year Gains

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Monday, February 27, 2017 11:07 AM

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Black Knight Financial Services reported on Monday that its Home Price Index posted another 5.7 percent annual increase in the national rate of appreciation. Over the course of 2016 prices rose on a year-over-year basis by an average of 5.4 percent each month, however appreciation accelerated into the later months and the December increase tied with November for the highest rates of the year. The November to December gain was 0.1 percent, down from the 0.2 percent rate in each of the previous two months.

Home prices in four of the nation’s 20 largest states, Massachusetts, New York, North Carolina, and Washington, hit new peaks as did seven of the 40 largest metropolitan areas.

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Home Price Appreciation Highest in 30 Months -Case-Shiller

Home Price Appreciation Highest in 30 Months -Case-Shiller

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Tuesday, February 28, 2017 9:54 AM

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Home prices accelerated their growth again in December. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, rose by 5.8 percent compared to one year earlier. In November the gain over the previous 12 months was 5.6 percent. The year-over-year increase has been larger each month since July and Case-Shiller called the annual December number the largest increase in 30 months. On a monthly basis, the National Index rose 0.2 percent before seasonal adjustment and was up 0.7 percent after.

The 10-City Composite Index rose 4.9 percent on an annual basis compared to 4.4 percent in November while the 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.6 percent, up from 5.2 percent in November. Among the 20 cities the largest annual gains were again registered in Seattle, Portland, and Denver. Seattle led the way with a 10.8 percent year-over-year price increase in December, followed by Portland with 10.0 percent, and Denver at 8.9 percent. Twelve cities reported greater price increases in the year ending December 2016 versus the year ending November 2016. Both the city composites rose 0.3 percent on a non-adjusted basis and 0.9 percent after adjustment.

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