MBS RECAP: Bonds Avoid Commitment to Begin Busy Week

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Avoid Commitment to Begin Busy Week

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Monday, April 30, 2018 4:36 PM

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April was a bummer of a month for the bond market. Actually, it was decent through the 11th, but it got ugly quickly after that–especially during the past 2 weeks. Contrast that to March, which was decidedly, albeit mildly positive. If bonds stick to this same pattern of clearly delineated monthly trading themes, the rest of the week could be interesting. Today, however, was sort of a dud.

One barrier to excitement will be the “Golden Week” holidays in Japan, keeping the biggest Treasury trading contingent out of the office during Asian market hours. …

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Daily Newsletter: Pending Home Sales Post Modest Gains; Mortgage Rates Mostly Sideways to Begin Busy Week

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30 Year Fixed
4.61% -0.03
15 Year Fixed
3.99% -0.03
10YR Treasury
2.96% -0.0037
FNMA 30YR 3.5
99.17 -0.08
FNMA 15YR 2.5
99.11 -0.05
View Today’s Rates
Monday April 30, 2018
Mortgage Rate Watch – 3:48PM
Mortgage Rates Mostly Sideways to Begin Busy Week
Mortgage rates didn’t move much today , which keeps them right in line with last week’s lowest levels. That sounds pretty good! Unfortunately, any time prior to last week, those “lowest …
MND NewsWire – 10:34AM
Pending Sales Post Slight Increase in March
It wasn’t much of a gain , even missing analysts’ predictions, but given the recent performance of the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), any positive change is a relief. The National …
MBS Commentary – 9:42AM
MBS Week Ahead: Big Economic Data and Big Decisions For Bonds
This week brings several top tier economic reports as well as a Fed announcement. Combine that with today’s month-end trading process, it makes for a robust and evenly-distributed slate …
Pipeline Press – 9:11AM
MI and Jumbo Products; FHA, VA, and Ginnie News; Rates Take a Breather
Demographics will tell you that it makes more sense organizing populations by how they live – rather than where they live – is a much more precise way to talk about the …

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.61% -0.03
15 Yr FRM 3.99% -0.03
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.43% -0.02
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.65% -0.03
5/1 Yr ARM 3.77% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.65% 1.14 +0.09
30 Yr. Fixed 4.19% 1.21 +0.02
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.68% 0.46 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.12% 0.51 +0.05
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.55% 0.37 +0.00
30 Yr. FHA 4.69% 0.81 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.83% 0.68 -0.10
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.58% 0.50 +0.11
15 Yr. Fixed 4.02% 0.40 +0.08
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.74% 0.30 +0.07

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 96.25 -0.13
30YR FNMA 3.5 99.17 -0.08
30YR GNMA 3.0 97.45 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.5 100.02 +0.05
15YR FNMA 3.0 99.11 -0.05
15YR FNMA 2.5 97.19 -0.02
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
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2 YR 2.4920% +0.0083
5 YR 2.7989% -0.0050
10 YR 2.9550% -0.0037
30 YR 3.1237% -0.0033
Prices as of: 4/30/2018 4:37PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
© 2018 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
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Daily Rate Update: Mortgage Rates Mostly Sideways to Begin Busy Week

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dailyrateheader.png
30 Year Fixed
4.61% -0.03
15 Year Fixed
3.99% -0.03
10YR Treasury
2.96% -0.0037
FNMA 30YR 3.5
99.17 -0.08
FNMA 15YR 2.5
99.11 -0.05
View Today’s Rates
Mortgage Rates Mostly Sideways to Begin Busy Week
April 30, 2018
Mortgage rates didn’t move much today, which keeps them right in line with last week’s lowest levels. That sounds pretty good! Unfortunately, any time prior to last week, those “lowest levels” would have been the highest in more than 4 years.

To make things simple, look at like this: rates didn’t move more than an eighth of a percentage point (.125) for most of March and early April (lenders typically divide rate sheet offerings in 1/8th increments). Last week brought rates a quarter of a point (.25) higher at its worst, and now we’ve recovered about an eighth. In other words, we’re right in between the March plateau and last week’s highs.

The rest of this week brings several important economic reports including Friday’s big jobs report (The Employment Situation, aka “Nonfarm Payrolls”). This is the single biggest piece of economic data when it comes to labor markets and a longtime flashpoint for interest rates. Investors are curious to see if last month’s excessively weak reading was an isolated event or a sign of labor market tightening.

If it’s much weaker than expected this Friday, it would likely be good for rates. Balance that against the fact that rates had enjoyed the aforementioned stability in March, and the recent trend has been decidedly unfriendly. It makes sense to remain on guard against additional rate spikes until and unless we can make some better improvements than those seen over the last few business days.

Loan Originator Perspective

Bond markets posted slight gains today ahead of the week’s looming data. We get a Fed statement Wed, and jobs data Wed/Fri. Although we seemingly hit rates’ ceiling last week, I’m not banking on further drops either. Risk averse clients should grab the gains and lock. –Ted Rood, Senior Originator

My rate sheets do not show the recent improvements we have enjoyed over the last couple days. If your rate sheets are similar, i would definitely float over night and evaluate pricing in the morning. If your rate sheets show much of the recent gains, then locking in would be wise. –Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage

A Big Week ahead in the Financial Markets. Keep your finger on the Lock Button as I recommend Floating cautiously. – Al Hensling


Today’s Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.625%-4.75%
  • FHA/VA – 4.25%-4.5%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 4.0%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – 3.625%-3.875% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • 2017 had proven to be a relatively good year for mortgage rates despite widespread expectations for a stronger push higher after the presidential election in late 2016.
  • While rates remain low in absolute terms, they’ve been moving higher in a serious way due to headwinds that cannot be quickly defeated. These include the Fed’s increasingly restrictive monetary policy outlook, the increased amount of Treasury issuance to pay for the tax bill (higher bond issuance = higher rates), and the possibility that fiscal stimulus results in higher growth/inflation.
  • While we may see periodic corrections to the broader trend toward higher rates, it’s safer to assume that broader trend can and will continue. Until that changes, it makes much more sense to remain heavily-biased toward locking as opposed to floating.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
30?w=360&p=15YRFRM

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 4.61% -0.03
15 Yr FRM 3.99% -0.03
FHA 30 Year Fixed 4.43% -0.02
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.65% -0.03
5/1 Yr ARM 3.77% -0.01

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.65% 1.14 +0.09
30 Yr. Fixed 4.19% 1.21 +0.02
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.68% 0.46 -0.01
15 Yr. Fixed 4.12% 0.51 +0.05
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.55% 0.37 +0.00
30 Yr. FHA 4.69% 0.81 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.83% 0.68 -0.10
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 4.58% 0.50 +0.11
15 Yr. Fixed 4.02% 0.40 +0.08
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.74% 0.30 +0.07

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 96.25 -0.13
30YR FNMA 3.5 99.17 -0.08
30YR GNMA 3.0 97.45 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.5 100.02 +0.05
15YR FNMA 3.0 99.11 -0.05
15YR FNMA 2.5 97.19 -0.02
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
2 YR 2.4920% +0.0083
5 YR 2.7989% -0.0050
10 YR 2.9550% -0.0037
30 YR 3.1229% -0.0041
Prices as of: 4/30/2018 4:35PM EST

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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available. We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender’s rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.
© 2018 Brown House Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
Brown House Media Inc. – 19706 One Norman Blvd – Cornelius, NC 28031
View this Report in your Web Browser | Forward to a Friend | Subscribe
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates presented in this report are averages and are subject to change without notice.
You were sent this email because you opted to receive our weekly or daily email reports. Go here to manage your email preferences or here to unsubscribe from all email communications.

Pending Sales Post Slight Increase in March

Pending Sales Post Slight Increase in March

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Monday, April 30, 2018 10:08 AM

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It wasn’t much of a gain, even missing analysts’ predictions, but given the recent performance of the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), any positive change is a relief. The National Association of Realtors® said the PHSI, which measures new contracts for existing home purchases, managed an 0.4 percent increase in March, bringing the index to 107.6. At the same time, the February PHSI was downgraded from 107.5 to 107.2. While it was the second straight monthly gain, following a 3.1 percent increase in February, it was the third straight month that the index lagged on an annual basis. This time the shortfall was 3.0 percent.

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MBS Week Ahead: Big Economic Data and Big Decisions For Bonds

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MBS Week Ahead: Big Economic Data and Big Decisions For Bonds

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Monday, April 30, 2018 9:42 AM

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This week brings several top tier economic reports as well as a Fed announcement. Combine that with today’s month-end trading process, it makes for a robust and evenly-distributed slate of potential market movement. The caveat is that we haven’t seen any pronounced reactions to economic data recently. One notable exception is the NFP reading from the beginning of the month (the one that came in at 103k), which helped bonds rally after 3 days of selling (and perhaps to stave off the negative trend seen in the 2nd chart below.

The top portion of the chart relates…

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MI and Jumbo Products; FHA, VA, and Ginnie News; Rates Take a Breather

MI and Jumbo Products; FHA, VA, and Ginnie News; Rates Take a Breather

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Monday, April 30, 2018 8:15 AM

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Demographics will tell you that it makes more sense organizing populations by how they live – rather than where they live – is a much more precise way to talk about the world. People are human so we all tend to gravitate to those with similar interests and personalities. Every lender knows that people need a place to live, and it’s nice to build equity, have stability, and pound a nail into a wall without having to tell the landlord. The Census Bureau tells us that the homeownership rate rose from the prior year for the fifth consecutive quarter in 2018. It held steady at 64.2%, unchanged from the prior quarter and its highest level since 2014.

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Add to Friendly Bounce

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Add to Friendly Bounce

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, April 27, 2018 6:53 PM

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Bonds managed to scratch out a 2nd day of “recovery” leading back from the highest yields in more than 4 years seen on Wednesday. If you don’t want to read more than 3 sentences, I can tell you that it looks like yield curve trading and technical levels in the 2s/10s curve were primarily responsible for the gains. If you’re in that 3 sentence crowd, see ya on Monday!

For everyone else, there’s this:

European bond markets rallied once again in the overnight session, but this time, Treasuries didn’t follow. Instead, it was only after the GDP reading that the yield curve …

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