MBS Day Ahead: Clearly Defined Floor and Ceiling For Now

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MBS Day Ahead: Clearly Defined Floor and Ceiling For Now

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Friday, August 30, 2019 9:18 AM

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In the day just passed, the Treasury complex came under pressure on several fronts. Trade related headlines sapped some of the safe haven demand, as did political progress in Italy. Europe continued to have an influence into domestic hours after an ECB member commented on the market’s overblown expectations for a September rate cut and additional stimulus. Finally, a poorly received 7yr Treasury auction underscored the need for bonds to tap the brakes this week.

In the day ahead, we will keep a close eye on the levels that have coincided with bonds tapping the brakes…

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DPA, Broker, Customer-Centric products; Tech Survey Results

DPA, Broker, Customer-Centric products; Tech Survey Results

Posted to: Pipeline Press
Friday, August 30, 2019 8:23 AM

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As Floridians watch “Storm Porn,” as the weather channel is called, Tennessee is buzzing about this Nashville Realtor’s marketing. (Warning: Rated a solid R.) The rest of the nation is more interested in the economy, and how one of the highest rates in the world is our own overnight Fed Funds rate! Don’t forget the economist’s saying, “Either say what will happen or when something will happen, but never the two together.” Fannie Mae now forecasts full-year 2019 mortgage origination headline growth to be up slightly to 2.2 percent, despite a shortage of homes for sale and the escalating trade conflict. The Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group also expects two more quarter-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2019, one in September and another in December, based on strong consumer spending, a surge in government nondefense spending, slowing residential fixed investment, and a negative business investment due to increasing trade and geopolitical uncertainty. More in the capital markets section below.

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Banks Report Huge Improvement in Mortgage Profitability

Banks Report Huge Improvement in Mortgage Profitability

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Friday, August 30, 2019 8:22 AM

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There was a dramatic turnaround for many mortgage banks in the second quarter as their production profits increased nearly six-fold compared to the previous period. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the independent mortgage banks (IMBs) and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks responding to their survey said they had an average net gain of $1,675 on each loan they originated, up from a reported gain of $285 per loan in the first quarter of 2019. Including all business lines (both production and servicing), 85 percent of the firms in the study posted pre-tax net financial profits for the quarter. Only 59 percent did so in the first quarter.

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Lower Rates Increased Affordability in July

Lower Rates Increased Affordability in July

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Thursday, August 29, 2019 1:14 PM

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At least one housing index is seeing a turn-around in the direction of home prices. Black Knight says the continuing decline of interest rates have increased homebuying affordability. As a result, its ended 16 straight months of decelerating appreciation in July. The company’s Home Price Index (HPI) increased 0.34 percent for the month, bringing year-over-year growth to 3.9 percent. Over the preceding 16 months the annual growth rate had slowed from a peak of 6.75 percent in February 2018 to 3.7 percent in June. While the rate of appreciation slowed over that 15-month period, prices continued to rise and in July marked 87 consecutive months of annual increases.

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Freddie Says Housing Will Help to Stop Recession, Here’s How

Freddie Says Housing Will Help to Stop Recession, Here’s How

Posted to: MND NewsWire
Thursday, August 29, 2019 12:22 PM

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Housing led the way into the last recession, now Freddie Mac’s economists are suggesting it might help stave off the next one or at least modify its severity. In its August Forecast, the company says a deteriorating global economy and on-going US trade disputes with multiple countries has led to a drop in long-term interest rates to a three-year low and has “poised housing to reaccelerate.” The report says to expect a significant increase in refinance originations and the combination of low rates, a tight labor market and strong consumer confidence to offset declining business sentiment. “These factors will set the stage for continued improvement in the housing market heading into the fall.”

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MBS RECAP: Today Was a Victory for MBS. We’ll Take It!

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MBS RECAP: Today Was a Victory for MBS. We’ll Take It!

Posted to: MBS Commentary
Thursday, August 29, 2019 4:57 PM

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Bonds were weaker overnight in response to upbeat trade headlines from China’s commerce minister as well as Italian political news (read the MBS Live update). The morning’s economic data passed without a trace, not that we would expect too much from a GDP revision or yet another Jobless Claims reading around 215k. Things didn’t pick up until the 9:30am NYSE open, which has been a focal point for morning volatility this week. This time around, it pushed bond yields higher. MBS followed with modest weakness, but not at the same pace as Treasuries.

Thus began…

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Daily Newsletter: Mortgage Rates Lower; 10yr Yields Higher; Sales Streak Paused

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30 Year Fixed
3.56% -0.03
15 Year Fixed
3.25% -0.03
10YR Treasury
1.50% +0.0319
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.69 -0.02
FNMA 15YR 2.5
102.45 -0.06
View Today’s Rates
Thursday August 29, 2019
Mortgage Rate Watch – 4:12PM
Yes, Mortgage Rates are Lower and 10yr Yields are Higher Today
Two days ago, I wrote an article entitled ” No, Mortgage Rates Aren’t Based on 10yr Treasury Yields .” It’s worth a read if you’re not already up to speed on why that’s a true statement …
MND NewsWire – 10:26AM
Pending Home Sales Winning Streak Leveled-Off in July
Pending home sales moved lower in July, declining by 2.5 percent. After two consecutive months of gains the National Association of Realtors’® (NAR’s) Pending Home Sales Index …
MND NewsWire – 8:26AM
Uptick in Housing Inventories May be Short-Lived
The theme of every sales and price report for the last several years has been the shortage of homes for sale. While new home inventories have held steady over the six-month supply considered …

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Today’s Rates

Best Execution hdr_arrow.png
Rate Change
Current Mortgage Rates »
What are best-execution rates?
30 Yr FRM 3.56% -0.03
15 Yr FRM 3.25% -0.03
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.25% -0.04
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.69% -0.03
5/1 Yr ARM 3.38% -0.02

Average Mortgage Rates

Rate Points Change
FHFA * hdr_arrow.png
15 Yr. Fixed 3.79% 1.21 -0.12
30 Yr. Fixed 4.39% 1.12 -0.22
MBA ** hdr_arrow.png
30 Yr. Fixed 4.12% 0.38 +0.08
15 Yr. Fixed 3.48% 0.32 +0.06
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.07% 0.21 +0.04
30 Yr. FHA 4.01% 0.28 +0.04
5/1 ARM 3.58% 0.27 +0.02
Freddie Mac ** hdr_arrow.png
Current Mortgage Rates »
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
30 Yr. Fixed 3.58% 0.50 +0.03
15 Yr. Fixed 3.06% 0.50 +0.03
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.31% 0.40 -0.01

Secondary Markets

MBS hdr_arrow.png
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 101.81 -0.03
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.69 -0.02
30YR GNMA 3.0 103.08 +0.08
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.97 +0.08
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.45 -0.06
15YR FNMA 2.5 101.23 -0.06
Treasuries hdr_arrow.png
Yield Change
Current MBS / Treasury Prices »
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
Secondary Marketing Managers:
If you are interested in gaining access to the most accurate real-time back-month TBA indications from Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. Request More Information
TR_Eikon_Email.png
2 YR 1.5220% +0.0220
5 YR 1.3996% +0.0253
10 YR 1.4996% +0.0319
30 YR 1.9653% +0.0272
Prices as of: 8/29/2019 5:00PM EST

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This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.
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